Bovada, an online sportsbook, released odds Wednesday on a number of props for various teams across the country. Florida State was featured prominently in many of the props. Let's go through them to see if any offer value, and why. Keep in mind that these only cover the 12-game regular season. Keep in mind that season-long wagers really need to present significant value since your money is tied up for the entire season.
Winston
NCAA 2014-2015 Season -Total Passing Yards - Jameis Winston (Florida State)
Over/Under 3474.5 Passing Yards
NCAA 2014-2015 Season -Total Passing Touchdowns - Jameis Winston (Florida State)
Over/Under 34½
Analysis: These are some very lofty numbers. Winston threw for 3500 last year in the regular season, and exactly 35 touchdowns. Winston may play more this year, as FSU is unlikely to be as dominant. That could mean more yards due to more throws, but I don't see it leading to more touchdown passes. I'll pass on the total yardage prop, and bet the under (-120) on the touchdown number. That Jimbo Fisher typically likes to run the ball more in the red zone, and that Kelvin Benjamin is gone also influence the decision.
NCAA 2014-2015 Season - Will Jameis Winston (Florida State) lead the ACC in Passing Yards?
Yes EVEN (1/1)
No -140 (5/7)
Analysis: No play. Nothing of value sticks out.
NCAA 2014-2015 Season - Will Jameis Winston (Florida State) lead the ACC in Passing Touchdowns?
Yes -140 (5/7)
No EVEN (1/1)
Analysis: Now this is interesting. Very interesting. You could be of the mind to bet Winston Under the above TD number, as I elected to do in this exercise, and also wager on him to lead the conference. If say, Winston threw 32 touchdowns or something close, but not 35+, and is the conference's leader, then both bets win. Tajh Boyd had 34 in 2012, Mike Glennon had 30. Boyd had 28 in 2011, while Glennon had 28 as well in a previous year.
Basically, if Jameis Winston throws between 29 and 34 touchdowns in the regular season, there is a good chance that both bets can win.
On the flip side, if Winston throws 35, and someone throws 36, both wagers lose. But the chances of that happening in a league that returns just 5 of 14 quarterbacks -- only one of which is a standout, aren't very good. Betting both sides of that might be worth the risk.
Karlos Williams
NCAA 2014-2015 Season -Total Rushing Yards - Karlos Williams (Florida State)
Over/Under 1025½
NCAA 2014-2015 Season -Total Rushing Touchdowns - Karlos Williams (Florida State)
Over/Under 14½
Analysis: Some of these bets are really tough. Jimbo Fisher had a back go over 1,000 yards in 2013 in Devonta Freeman, and Chris Thompson was on pace to go well over the mark, but neither went over it in the regular season. Karlos Williams might be more talented than either, but Jimbo Fisher just doesn't ride one back to the exclusion of all others very often, and Mario Pender is also making a lot of noise. In order for me to feel comfortable about this wager, I'd have to project Williams to rush for 1100 yards or so, at least, in 12 games. At an average of, say, six yards-per-carry, he'd need 183 carries in 12 games. Only once under Jimbo Fisher's tenure has a back had that number of carries in the entire season (Antone Smith when FSU literally was using receivers to back him up), and never in the regular season. I don't see that happening. Yet, I am not particularly swayed to bet the under, either.
As for the touchdown number, I'm disappointed to see Bovada hang such a high number. They did their homework. Williams is a good runner down tight and should get a lot of touchdowns. I won't go over, but I also won't be on the under.
NCAA 2014-2015 Season - ACC - Who will have more Rushing Yards?
Duke Johnson (Miami) 3/2
Karlos Williams (Florida State) 2/1
Trey Edmunds (Virgnia Tech) 5/2
Kevin Parks (Virginia) 4/1
Dominique Brown (Louisville) 9/2
Analysis: Bovada is being stingy as hell with these odds. I don't think any of these are a value at all.
NCAA 2014-2015 Season - ACC - Who will have more Rushing Touchdowns?
Karlos Williams (Florida State) 7/5
Duke Johnson (Miami) 2/1
Trey Edmunds (Virgnia Tech) 11/4
Dominique Brown (Louisville) 17/4
Kevin Parks (Virginia) 17/4
Analysis: Bovada is being stingy as hell with these odds. I don't think any of these are a value at all.
Rashad Greene
NCAA 2014-2015 Season -Total Receiving Yards - Rashad Greene (Florida State)
Over/Under 1025½
NCAA 2014-2015 Season -Total Receiving Touchdowns - Rashad Greene (Florida State)
Over/Under 11½
Analysis: Figuring out this bet is all about judging how much longer FSU will be in games (assuming smaller blowouts and more close games), and how to determine Greene's targets given that Kelvin Benjamin and Kenny Shaw are gone. Will teams be able to take him away more thanks to greater focus? How does that balance with being the only proven target at receiver? It's a no-bet for me on both, though I do lean under on the touchdowns. Greene is not a great red zone target. But betting both Winston's TDs under and Greene's is likely doubling down. Do you want that much at risk on a correlated action without the correlated payoff?
NCAA 2014-2015 Season - ACC - Who will have more Receiving Yards?
Jamison Crowder (Duke) 3/2
Rashad Greene (Florida State) 2/1
Tyler Boyd (Pittsburgh) 2/1
Quinshad Davis (North Carolina) 13/4
Phillip Dorsett (Miami) 9/2
Analysis: Bovada is being stingy as hell with these odds. I don't think any of these are a value at all.
NCAA 2014-2015 Season - ACC - Who will have more Receiving Touchdowns?
Rashad Greene (Florida State) 7/4
Tyler Boyd (Pittsburgh) 9/4
Quinshad Davis (North Carolina) 5/2
Jamison Crowder (Duke) 7/2
Phillip Dorsett (Miami) 7/2
Analysis: Bovada is being stingy as hell with these odds. I don't think any of these are a value at all (also, I am not sure Greene should be the favorite there).