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Welcome back to our weekly college football gambling column. It's called COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMBLING. Today, let's talk about the third of five power conferences: the Pac-12
Season-long props and futures require a bettor to lay his or her money for the entire year. Because of the uncertainty involved, and the time for which the money is unavailable to the bettor, it's very important to practice restraint. There are a lot of props I'd like to pop in the Pac-12, 10 in all, but had to trim the list to five.
Win total wagers are based solely on the regular season. No championship games, bowl games, or Playoff games. If I don't mention a team, it means that I feel Vegas has the number pegged relatively well or I don't have a great feel for the team. If you want to discuss other teams, let's do so in the comment section.
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Oregon Under 10.5 Wins (+160, Sportsbook): There's a lot to like about the Ducks. Marcus Mariota is a star, the offensive line is excellent at executing at a high level in conjunction with pace, and Oregon has more experience in the back end than some might realize.
But the concerns about the run defense are still there, and to them, we now add concerns about the receiver position and potential field position woes with the loss of top return men. Oregon is probably 50/50 to win 10 or 11, which is why I am taking the good price on the Under.
Stanford Over 8.5 Wins (-115, Sportsbook): Stanford has recruited at the level of USC, UCLA, and Oregon over the last four years. Its player development is fantastic, and it plays defense better than anyone in the league. With an experienced receiving corps and secondary, paired with what I expect to be lines that come up to speed quickly, Stanford is being overlooked. Another year for senior QB Kevin Hogan should help as well.
Oregon State Under 7.5 Wins (-130, Sportsbook): The Beavers seem to have real issues on the offensive and defensive lines, and losing receiver Brandin Cooks is a big deal, despite the great job done each year by coach Mike Riley. If Oregon State cannot force teams to throw, it won't be able to spring upsets.
Utah Over 4.5 Wins (-160, Bookmaker): The Utes should again be strong on defense, and if Travis Wilson can cut down on the turnovers, this team can get to a bowl game. Utah can win five games from among Idaho State, Fresno State, at Michigan, Washington State, at Oregon State, Arizona, and at Colorado. And if they can only pull off four from that group, an upset against USC or at Arizona State is not out of the question -- they beat Stanford last year.
Arizona Over 6.5 (+115, Sportsbook): I can get a Rich Rodriguez offense with a veteran offensive line and a Jeff Casteel defense with a veteran, talented secondary at this price? I'm taking it. Rodriguez will find a quarterback to run his system, and the receiving corps will be enough to keep teams honest against the running game.
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Notes
I considered playing the Under 8.5 +163 on USC, due to the concerns over the Trojans' line depth, but the starting talent is tremendous. I also considered Under on UCLA at 9.5 +100, due to questions about UCLA's receivers, but UCLA has been on such a recruiting tear that I don't have enough conviction to pull the trigger.
I came really close to betting Arizona State Under 7.5 +109, because the Sun Devils return only two starters on defense. And Washington State Under 5.5 +140, playing off the perception that Wazzu is guaranteed to again make a bowl, was tempting. And Cal Over 2.5 intrigued me.
Ultimately, many of these bets are interrelated, and betting too many teams in one conference often leads to a major boom-or-bust scenario. If you find yourself looking to bet more than half of the teams in the conference in wagers of this type, take a step back and consider if the value is really there to invest your money for a full three months.