Can Brady Hoke recover from the blowout loss at Notre Dame to deliver another top recruiting class? Does it matter?
Brady Hoke's career in Ann Arbor started off swimmingly. Hoke is the quintessential "Michigan Man," and he brought with him mantras about doing things the right way, playing to Michigan's standards, and playing with toughness and power. He was the anti-Rich Rodriguez in many ways, and in 2011 he rode Rodriguez' players to an 11-2 record and a Sugar Bowl victory. Fans were all in.
Recruits bought in, too, with 55 percent of Hoke's signees over his four recruiting classes being rated four- or five-stars by the 247Sports Composite.
Unfortunately, Hoke's record then slipped to 8-5 and to 7-6. Michigan is just 8-9 in its last 17 games, and the toughness and power elements that he preaches seem to be disappearing more and more each year. And Hoke has few quality wins on his resume. Hoke's Wolverines beat an 8-5 Notre Dame team in 2013 and a 10-3 Northwestern team in 2012, but other than that, his best work came in 2011 with Rich Rodriguez's recruits.
Expectations higher for 2014
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Entering the 2014 season, though, Michigan fans had not given up on Hoke. He wasn't necessarily on the hot seat, Michigan media agreed, because of the substantial support of athletic director Dave Brandon.
And he finally had a roster comprised entirely of his own recruits. Highly rated recruits. In the Big Ten, only the Ohio State Buckeyes top Michigan in the recruiting rankings, and the rest aren't even close. Perhaps, despite having only a 14-7 record against Big Ten teams the Wolverines have out-recruited, they could put it together?
Plus, Hoke replaced offensive coordinator Al Borges with Doug Nussmeier, of Alabama, considered an upgrade by just about everyone. Nussmeier had done very well in Tuscaloosa with blue-chip recruits, and perhaps he could turn Michigan's fortunes around.
Recruits shared those expectations as well, and at the beginning of the season were still buying in pretty strongly, as nine of 11 Michigan commitments are rated as four- or five-stars by the 247Sports Composite. Receiver Brian Cole, defensive back Garrett Taylor, tight end Chris Clark, defensive end Darian Roseboro, and linebacker Darrin Kirkland, Jr., are all considered to be among the 10 best at their position nationally.
But it's clear that Michigan needs to work to keep up this level of recruiting.
In June, I placed Michigan among four college football teams that need more wins to avoid recruiting losses.
Not all of the losses are Hoke's fault. Eventually, though, recruits and their parents tire of excuses. Michigan's recruiting depends on it being able to pull kids nationally, as the state is not that loaded. And every inexplicable loss puts a little more doubt in the minds of high schoolers and another arrow in Urban Meyer's quiver.
Michigan has out-recruited every team on its schedule, save Ohio State and Notre Dame, by a huge margin. And it has a weak non-conference schedule in 2014. If it slips up again and turns in another season without double-digit wins, I would expect a drop-off in recruiting.
Michigan blasted Appalachian State to open the year, but then came the 31-0 shutout loss to Notre Dame.
31-0 is not just a loss
It's not that Michigan was expected to win (ND was favored by three), but it's the way in which the Wolverines were completely non-competitive against a team that recruits at a similar level and was without three top starters due to academic suspensions. It ended Michigan's 20-year non-shutout streak, and Wolverines fans won't have a chance to get back at Notre Dame for quite a while, as the series is no longer an annual event.
It matters because Michigan was embarrassingly incompetent, particularly on offense. And it matters because Notre Dame is one of the Wolverines' chief rivals on the recruiting trail.
"Saturday's loss against Notre Dame was a step back for a team that looked like it had sharpened things up over the offseason and turned the corner heading into 2014," Anthony Broome, recruiting analyst for Maize N Brew said. "When faced with adversity, the Wolverines crumbled instead of rising to the occasion, and that does fall on coaching. To add insult to injury, a fair number of prospects that Michigan is battling Notre Dame for were in attendance in South Bend, so it was not a good look for the program by any means."
As SB Nation's Bill Connelly notes, the margin between Michigan and Notre Dame wasn't quite what it showed on the scoreboard, but that is clearly not the national perception. And in recruiting, perception matters a lot more than yardage totals.
Negative recruiting
And the perception opens up Michigan for some major negative recruiting in multiple ways. Fans are pissed, Hoke is suddenly on the hot seat, at least in the eyes of the media, and it matters for recruiting.
Recruits, and especially their parents, want certainty. They want to know who their position coach will be in college, and that the coach will be there for their time at the school. Ditto that they'll fit the scheme. And given the crazy turnover rate that already exists in college football, picking a school is already a roll of the dice.
Opposing schools know this, and they will bring it up to recruits. Repeatedly. "Brady Hoke's win total has decreased every year. He's one year from being fired. Are you sure the guy with whom they replace him will run a scheme that fits your talents?" they'll say.
Some staffs can place blame their struggles on attrition, but not Hoke's.
"Hoke's players haven't struggled to qualify or remain qualified - by Cook's count, only two Hoke recruits have prematurely washed out of the program, neither of them due to academics." --
Matt Hinton, Grantland
The Wolverines' struggles are all about development and coaching. Players are staying in the program and not improving to the levels seen at other top programs.
Opposing schools are going to tell recruits considering Michigan that going there means a higher chance that they don't get the coaching and development to maximize their talents. It's very easy to pull out the Michigan depth chart right now, point to all the former blue-chips, and note how they aren't turning into stars.
How much can Hoke salvage?
The Big Ten appears weak in 2014, so Michigan is likely to be favored in seven or eight of its final 10 games (at Michigan State and at Ohio State being the exceptions). If it beats the teams it should beat, it can finish 8-4 or 9-3, with a shot to win a 10th game in a bowl.
But would that be enough to counteract the growing onslaught of negative recruiting?
Hoke likely keeps his job with wins over Miami (Ohio), Utah, Rutgers, Penn State, Indiana, Northwestern, and Maryland, but does that do anything to impress recruits?
"It is a big concern, seeing as the only home game that jumps out on the schedule is the night game against Penn State on Oct. 11," Broome said. "They'll be putting almost all of their official visit eggs in one basket for that weekend. It will be a great atmosphere, but it will be the only big game for recruits to see in Ann Arbor all year and due to scheduling conflicts, some prospects just may not be able to make it."
Or are recruits more concerned about Hoke's 3-7 mark (potentially 3-9) against Notre Dame, Michigan State, and Ohio State? Or that Michigan has not won the Big Ten in a decade or played in the title game under Hoke?
Recruits like flash, and that slate of wins may appear somewhat hollow to them.
"I'm not sure how much it will affect recruiting overall, as Hoke as showed he can still bring in a fair amount of talent after underachieving the last two seasons. But it definitely hurts them in regards to some of their higher-rated recruits still on the board," Broome said. "We saw this last year with Da'Shawn Hand (signed with Alabama) and in this current cycle with Damien Harris and George Campbell (former Michigan commitments who have since decommitted)."
Michigan may need to pull off an upset at Michigan State or Ohio State to keep the attention of elite uncommitted recruits.
"They are fighting with ND for four-star linebacker Asmar Bilal, but he has stated many times that he is looking at more than football in regards to what school he will choose," Broome said. "Five-star defensive end Keisean Lucier-South is still high on the Wolverines, but they will have to really make an impression on him during his official visit and finish this season strong to be a legitimate contender for him."
It's too early to close the book on Brady Hoke's tenure, or on his 2015 recruiting class. But after just two games, it is clear that Michigan has a bit of an uphill climb.