Teams that don't recruit at an elite level typically don't become great. But in a year in which even the elite recruiting teams aren't great, the chance for a non-traditional power to win it all seems high.
So far in this college football season, there are no great teams. Several teams can lay claim to being very good, but they all have rather clear flaws, and there is little separation in the top 10, much less the top four.
And that makes getting in the final four all the more important, because there is no element of, "Sure, [team] made the Playoff, but it has no shot to beat [super awesome team sure to win its final game]."
Heck, it's not crazy to think non-championship teams from previous years, like 2012 Georgia, 2011 LSU, 2009 Florida, 2009 Texas, or 2008 Oklahoma would be the clear cut No. 1 team this season. Why is that?
Here's a look at the recruiting of the committee's top seven teams, which also happen to be the only power-conference teams with one or fewer losses, to see if recruiting can explain the lack of great teams in 2014. They are: Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, Mississippi State, TCU, Ohio State and Baylor.
Of those, only three have recruited at least 50 percent blue chip prospects over the last four years: Alabama (73 percent), Florida State (56) and Ohio State (68 percent). That's an important benchmark, one crested by all of the national champions in the BCS era.
Oregon (41 percent) is close, while Mississippi State (18 percent), Baylor (13 percent), and TCU (10 percent) are not.
Oregon and Baylor have unique, innovative offensive systems that have produced huge point totals in recent years. TCU has seen huge success with scouting and a coaching change on offense. Mississippi State has gone the developmental route, and has one of the most veteran teams in the country.
Thirteen of Mississippi State's 22 starters are seniors. Another six are juniors. Only three are sophomores. Only one of the 49 players Mississippi State lists on its depth chart is a freshman. This is an extremely veteran team. It's had multiple years in the weight room, and that shows up with the physical bludgeoning State has given to opponents.
These are men aged 22 and 23, squaring off frequently against boys who are not yet old enough to drink. No player listed on the two-deep on the defensive line checks in at under 260 pounds. Mississippi State uses that strength to take on and play blocks very well, especially on early downs, forcing teams to try and substitute a short passing game for a running game -- something many college quarterbacks cannot do against this level of experience.
Given that none of the teams in the top seven have games remaining against each other, there will be at least one representative in the Playoff that does not meet the 50 percent benchmark, and, in some crazy scenarios, four that don't. That increases the chance that a non-recruiting power could win it all, something that wasn't possible in some BCS years, in which the title game matched two elite recruiting powers.
Previously
How does this compare to the recruiting of the top seven in Week 13 of years past?
In 2013, four teams that bring in more elite prospects than not were in contention: Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State, and Auburn. Oregon and Clemson, which recruit close to the top level, also made it. The outlier was Baylor.
2012 was a year loaded with recruiting powers, with five elites and Oregon, plus Kansas State (one percent!). 2011 matched recruiting superpowers Alabama and LSU, but the remaining five in Week 13 didn't include any recruiters of note. 2010 had Auburn and LSU, plus Oregon, and four teams that don't recruit at a high level.
There is also an element of the SEC cannibalizing itself from year to year. Five SEC teams -- Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Georgia, and Florida -- recruit at that highest level. And due to annual rivalries, they are guaranteed to have six losses between each other before the SEC Championship. That makes it almost impossible for more than three to be in a final-seven scenario in any season.
So while the level of football being played this year seems down, it's not decisively due to recruiting. Many times in recent years, more than half of the top seven teams in the Week 13 rankings did not recruit above the 50 percent threshold, but at least during the BCS era, the elites rose to the top and put on the rings.
Will that continue in 2014? We shall see. What we already know is that in previous years, a Playoff system might have opened doors for lesser recruiting programs, had it been in existence.