Schools try to lock down quarterback commitments early. Half of the top 10 are already committed.
Quarterback is the most important position. Most college programs want to carry four, which means almost every school will sign a QB yearly, sometimes two.
Typically, only about 25 are rated four- or five-stars, so demand far outpaces supply. And teams typically do not move on from their No. 1 targets to accept a commitment from another until it is clear that they are out of the running. Lesser-rated recruits know this.
"I know Ohio State and other schools are waiting for (Jarrett) Guarantano and (Dwayne) Haskins," three-star QB Richard Moore said ($). "We'll see what happens after they decide."
Given that there is only one football and that teams rarely rotate quarterbacks, a top QB will often want to reserve his spot with the school of his choice. QB is also the noted position of leadership, so the recruit can then attempt to persuade other top players to join him.
Only five weeks removed from National Signing Day 2015, half of the top 10 quarterbacks in the 247Sports Composite for 2016 are already committed.
The top five committed QBs
It is interesting to note that all five, regardless of whether designated as a pocket passer or dual threat, are pass-first quarterbacks and not players who could be considered for another position. Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, TCU and Baylor also have four-star quarterbacks committed.
Feleipe Franks to LSU (6/1/14)
The No. 1 dual threat in the Composite. Many assumed Franks would commit to Florida State since his Crawfordville (Fla.) Wakulla High School has sent players to the Seminoles. But Franks was not the top target, and LSU put the press on early, impressing the 6'5, 220-pounder during visits in April and May 2014.
He has been solid ever since. Franks is a good baseball player and plans to play both sports at LSU, an important selling point for LSU. He has family in Louisiana as well.
Jack Allison to Miami (6/23/14)
Miami wasted little time in identifying who it wanted and making a move on the Palmetto (Fla.) star. They offered Allison in May of 2014, got him in to camp in June, and persuaded him to return to another in late June, when he committed.
Allison is a pro-style QB at 6'5, 200 in the classic Miami mold (Jim Kelly, Vinny Testaverde, Steve Walsh) with a big arm. Allison seems focused on recruiting for Miami and has not taken any major visits since.
Jacob Eason to Georgia (7/19/14)
The No. 1 QB in the country, the Lake Stevens (Wa.) senior went on a long tour in the summer of 2014, including Stanford, Notre Dame, Washington, Alabama, Florida State and Georgia, where he committed on July 19. The commitment was a surprise, with many thinking Notre Dame or Stanford would have a shot.
But Georgia has an excellent track record with pro-style quarterbacks under Mark Richt, including Aaron Murray, Matthew Stafford and David Greene. At 6'5 and 210 pounds, Eason fits that bill. Eason seems solid, but schools like Notre Dame and Michigan have not given up trying to take advantage of Georgia losing offensive coordinator Mike Bobo, who took the Colorado State head coaching position.
Malik Henry to Florida State (11/13/14)
Making a five-star in California the No. 1 priority over a highly rated four-star in Florida State's backyard was a risky proposition for Jimbo Fisher. FSU executed during its July camp. Henry, a dual-sport star in baseball and football, saw how Florida State managed Jameis WInston's two-sport load and was impressed.
In early November, Henry committed. Two months after, he transferred from Thousand Oaks (Calif.) Westlake to the IMG Academy in Bradenton (Fla.), making it easier to visit campus and recruit others to join him.
Shea Patterson to Ole Miss (2/17/15)
The Shreveport (La.) Calvary Baptist star has already had an interesting recruitment. He committed to Arizona, where his brother Sean worked, in December of 2012. He then decommitted from Arizona in July 2014. LSU hired his brother as an offensive quality control assistant. That fueled speculation that LSU would land Patterson's commitment.
But by Thanksgiving of 2014, word was that Ole Miss was planning to hire Sean and felt very good about its position. USC was in the mix, but Patterson committed to Ole Miss. His brother began working as associate director of recruiting operations six days later.
Patterson is a tremendous passer with a good arm and great touch. He is the best QB recruit Ole Miss has landed in years and could contend for playing time early in Hugh Freeze's offense.
★★★
But what about teams like Michigan and Stanford, programs that did not land an elite QB in 2015? Is USC going to land another top West Coast QB?
The top pro-style QBs left
KJ Costello -- USC, Stanford, Michigan, ?
The Rancho Santa Margarita (Calif.) Catholic star is another classic pro-style passer with a big arm at 6'4 and 213 pounds. Stanford, which did not take a QB in 2015, seems to be in the driver's seat. Stanford offers a great education, has a history of developing quarterbacks, and is in-state. But Michigan is also desperate for a top-end QB commitment.
Most believe that Costello stays in-state and that USC might be the biggest threat to Stanford, even though the Trojans signed two blue-chip QBs in 2015. I expect a decision before the summer.
Dwayne Haskins -- Maryland, Ohio State, Tennessee, LSU, Notre Dame, ?
If Costello is the top remaining pro-style QB on the West Coast, then Haskins, from Potomac (Md.) The Bullis School is on the East Coast. Haskins is 6'3, 185, mobile, and has good touch and velocity. And he's charismatic, which means if he wants to, he could likely persuade other prospects to join him.
But Haskins claims more than 35 offers. The four-star is scheduled to visit Notre Dame on March 21 for the Irish junior day. Michigan would like to get Haskins on a visit, especially if Costello stays on the West Coast.
Tennessee, having suffered a decommit from North Carolinian Austin Kendall, is also picking up its interest, though Jarrett Guarantano seems like the top Vols target. Ohio State also really likes him, though, like Tennessee, it might prefer Guarantano.
But with Haskins planning to decide in early April, it seems schools are chasing the hometown Terrapins. Maryland has made a huge effort to keep kids in the DMV area home, thanks in part to offensive coordinator Mike Locksley. And Maryland can offer early playing time, with a depth chart that is decidedly not loaded.
What if your team needs a great runner at QB?
Jawon Pass -- Auburn, Alabama, North Carolina, Louisville, ?
Despite his name, Pass' greatest weapon is his legs. At 6'5 and 220 with incredible athleticism and the potential to play at 240-plus, he's drawn comparisons to Cam Newton or Cardale Jones. Pass is not yet a refined passer, but teams running the spread option don't care much. Even some elite pro-style programs believe Pass can be a great passer from the pocket.
North Carolina, Alabama, Auburn and Louisville are major players. Alabama's recruitment, following its use of mobile QB Blake Sims, could signal a change in recruiting philosophy.
Jarrett Guarantano -- Rutgers, Ohio State, Tennessee, ?
The 6'4, 190-pound Guarantano is the best passer of the runners group, and with a wiry frame he has a lot of potential. Schools have taken note, including top suitors Ohio State, Tennessee and Rutgers.
Rutgers, which typically does not beat schools like those for elite players, is believed to have a great shot at the QB from Oradell (N.J.) Bergen Catholic. Rutgers is less than hour away, and Guarantano has made a number of visits. The Scarlett Knights have not signed an elite QB in recent years, which could present an opportunity for early playing time.
Guarantano has not set a decision date. Both Ohio State and Tennessee are expecting visits this spring.
Tristen Wallace -- Texas, ?
After decommitting from Texas Tech, the super athletic Tristen Wallace is back on the market. At 6'3 and 225 pounds, Wallace is a powerful runner who is a project throwing, especially after he missed most of his junior season with an ankle injury. Wallace had a strong playoff run after coming back, and if he impresses as a thrower in spring and in camps, expect the heat to be turned up.
Central to Wallace's recruitment will be the opportunity to play quarterback, as some schools want the four-star DeSoto (Texas) QB to consider other positions, like receiver, tight end, or safety. Texas already has a quarterback commitment in Shane Buechele, but could be the frontrunner for Wallace, particularly since the Longhorns seem committed to emphasizing quarterback mobility.
What's next?
After spring football, schools will send out another round of offers. We'll take a look at the backup plans for some of the top schools.