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Don't get distracted by Jameis Winston's interceptions.
All the draft experts and media are focusing this week on Jameis Winston's 18 interceptions, despite the fact he last threw one four months ago. But the interceptions are a false flag, thrown to distract NFL teams from Winston's biggest issue.
Consider this list.
Johnny Manziel
EJ Manuel
Jake Locker
Josh Freeman
Joe Flacco
JaMarcus Russell
Jay Cutler
Jason Campbell
J.P. Losman
Joey Harrington
Jim Druckenmiller
Jeff George
What do they have in common? Lots of things.
They were all drafted in the first round over the last quarter century. Which means they were paid money. Lots of it. Almost all were taken before the NFL capped how much rookies can be paid, so it's probably even more money than you might think.
They also have something in common:
A "J" in their first name.
If you follow the TRENDS, and have watched the TAPE (read: youtube highlights), you know that is a huge RED FLAG flying high over One Buc Place.
But just in case you haven't been digging into these prospects and the history of the league, here are five red flags.
Red flag 1: Qbs with a J in their first names drafted in the last quarter century have a combined 294-374 record.
RF2: These lames have combined to throw 1669 incompletions in their careers against just 2298 completions. Completions keep drives alive. If there were a Hippocratic Oath for QBs, these butchers would be spitting on it.
RF3: Less than half of this flawed group is still in the league, and only 2 of the 12 still have starting jobs!
RF4: For good reason. These guys toss interceptions like beads at a Mardi Gras parade, throwing an incredible 642 against just only 826 touchdowns. The average season for 1st round J-Named QBs drafted in the last quarter century is a 7-9 record, 3,789 yards, 22 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. That's a passer rating of 78, which is in the bottom 20% of the league.
RF5: And it should be noted that the average is heavily influenced by Joe Flacco, the only QB to win a super bowl on this list. Granting that Jay Cutler is not a bust, that still puts this group with an 83% bust rate. Can you really risk that and draft Winston if you are the Bucs?
Flag hits home: The Bucs already have experience with a first round J QB failure: Josh Freeman. They cannot possibly make the same mistake again. Take Mariota and avoid a headline in three years like "Jarring Jameis Joins Jittery J's."