Clemson hasn't faced a defense like Alabama's. Alabama hasn't faced a quarterback like Deshaun Watson.
Clemson has a chance to be the first team in more than a decade to win the national championship having signed fewer four-and five-star than two-and three-star recruits over its previous four recruiting cycles. The Tigers are right on the cusp of that mark, with 47 percent of their signees having been blue chips.
But they have to face the best recruiting team in the country, Alabama, which has signed an outrageous 77 percent in that time period.
Both teams smashed lesser recruiters in the semifinals. For this game, let's go deeper to reveal the biggest talent disparities, using only players who are likely to play.
Alabama's starting lineup has 16 blue-chippers, while Clemson's has 12. That's not an enormous difference. The real difference shows up in the two-deep, where Alabama stacks 36 blue chips to Clemson's 23. That is a big gap, and depth is likely to matter in a game that features the up-tempo Tigers.
Alabama defense vs. Clemson offense
The sexy matchup in this contest is Alabama's dominant defense against Clemson's high-powered offense, featuring quarterback Deshaun Watson, whom Ian Boyd called the "ultimate test for Nick Saban's defense."
This is the defense that shut down Leonard Fournette without even having to load the box often and shut out Michigan State and Connor Cook. It is led by incredible talent up front that comes around only once in a decade.
Players like A'Shawn Robinson, Jarran Reed, Jontahan Allen and Reggie Ragland are incredible, but it is the depth that really makes the Tide's defense special. Twenty-two players in the front seven are four- or five-stars. Alabama has several second- and even third-stringers who would be starting for some of the best defenses in the country.
Clemson also has a generational talent in Watson, who is better than any quarterback Alabama has faced. Watson really puts coordinators in a bind because he is too good a passer for defenses to just play him as a mobile quarterback. Because of that respect for his passing talent, Watson has been able to kill defenses with his legs, gashing Notre Dame for 98 yards, Florida State for 107, North Carolina for 131 and Oklahoma for 145.
The Irish, Seminoles and Sooners have legitimate defenses, but it is tough to find more than a handful of players from the entire trio who could start for the Tide. It's just a completely different animal.
The separation between No. 1 and No. 2 in offensive points added is 7.5. Separation between No. 1 (Bama) and No. 2 on defense is 51 points!
— Jared Shanker (@JShankerESPN) January 7, 2016That is to say Watson cannot do it himself. He'll need tough runner Wayne Gallman to form a one-two punch on the ground to create some one-on-one matchups down the field. The way to beat Alabama is with explosive shots. Methodical, sustained drives are not happening.
If Alabama can shut down Clemson's run game without having to sell out against the run, this won't be much of a contest. And if Clemson is able to force those matchups, it is going to need its talented receivers to make plays against a talented Alabama secondary that lived up to expectations this season.
That depth means Alabama's defense is going to be fresh in the fourth quarter, when Clemson's defense might start fading, even if the Tide have faced 90 or 100 plays. Kirby Smart's defense rotates its front line like a hockey team, with full confidence that the dropoff will be minimal.
This is important because Clemson has played close first halves at times (against Florida State and Oklahoma for instance), only to go on to comfortable wins while running 85-plus plays. Alabama's defense is less likely to wear down than any other in college football, so Clemson cannot expect to rely on a late surge.
Alabama offense vs. Clemson defense
The other side is somehow less sexy despite featuring the Heisman Trophy winner in Alabama running back Derrick Henry and some elite defensive talents in Clemson's Shaq Lawson and Mackensie Alexander. The matchup is also a lot more even in recruited talent, with the Tide having only one more blue chip starter than the Tigers and only six more in the two-deep.
Clemson's front will be one of the most talented Alabama has faced, provided Lawson is able to play well after leaving the Oklahoma game with an injury.
Quarterback Jake Coker has certainly improved over the course of the season. But it's still far preferable to sell out against Henry and hope Coker has an off day than it is to let the Heisman winner bludgeon the defense 40 times for 200 yards.
The Tigers will look to do what Florida did, putting cornerbacks on an island and selling out to stop Henry. This largely worked for Florida because the Gators, like Clemson, have a talented defensive line that gave a good (but not amazing) Alabama offensive line trouble and allowed the cornerbacks to limit star receiver Calvin Ridley in single coverage. Florida's defensive plan fell apart because its offense could not sustain a drive as Alabama wore on.
If Clemson's offense is capable of moving and its defense can generate turnovers, it will have a legitimate chance to upset the Tide. If not, this will look a lot like a lot of the games in which the Tide grind out a multi-score victory.