Welcome to The Crootletter (sign up to get this in your inbox every morning!). I'm Bud Elliott, SB Nation's National Recruiting Analyst, and in this space I'll be sharing news, rumors and musings on the world of college football recruiting.
I point out how problematic early recruiting rankings are on a yearly basis. They have to be flexible and willing to change rapidly because prospects grow at different rates.
But the problems they have pale in comparison to early mock drafts and NFL player ratings. The public demands them so media outlets produce them, but it's very obvious that these NFL types have not spent much time studying up on these prospects at this early juncture.
One of the biggest issues is box score scouting. Every year there is some defensive back thrown in the latter half of these way-too-early mock drafts solely because of his interception total. I call this the David Amerson rule after the tall N.C. State cornerback who led the nation in picks in 2011 and was immediately thereafter projected to go in the top 10 by many outlets (he went 51st). Folks putting together the recruiting rankings know to ignore the stats because the quality of competition faced in high school makes them far too noisy. I'd put any early top-25 recruiting ranking up against a top-25 NFL Draft ranking and compare it to how things finish.
Two prospects whose recruitments don't quite match their ratings yet (in a good way) are Travis Etienne and Shane Clennin. Etienne is a 5'11, 200-pound running back from Jennings (La.). He is currently rated the No. 38 running back nationally on the 247Sports Composite and I'm very confident in saying there are not 37 running backs better than Etienne. He won the fastest man challenge at the New Orleans Nike Opening camp, running a 4.38 in the final race. On film Etienne shows the ability to make defenders miss in confined areas and then immediately get up field.
With a ton of big schools after him including Alabama and Arkansas, I'm betting Etienne will see his ranking shoot up in the next eight months.
Clenin, of Festus (Mo.), committed to Arkansas in early April, and because other programs know that Bret Bielema and his staff know offensive linemen, they are now taking a look, too. The competition against which the 6'6, 285-pound Clenin plays is pretty weak, but on his highlight tape he does dominate it in the fashion you'd expect of a top prospect. He gets out of his stance well when pulling, seems to have good lateral agility and is aggressive. In time he should gain more power to be able to blow opponents off the ball. Clenin is currently unranked, but that will change.
Satellite camps
Michigan is doing 26 satellite camps including stops in Australia, American Samoa and Hawaii. This feels like Jim Harbaugh trolling the SEC more than anything and I'd be surprised if the Wolverines do something this comprehensive in future seasons.
Quickly
Bret Bielema thinks undrafted underclassmen should be able to return to school.
"I haven't touched base with Gus (Malzahn) yet, but he had two that didn't get drafted. Dan (Mullen) did as well. Ohio State had a couple," Bielema said. "Those coaches, I'm reaching out to them and trying to put together some collective thoughts on how to approach it. Now, some kids maybe had to move on for academic reasons or personal or their own story. But if you have a guy like Denver who's on progression to graduate, is doing the right things and needs another year (can we change something?)"
This sounds great, in theory, but let's remember a few things. First, very few underclassmen actually go undrafted. Second, many have valid reasons for leaving school even if undrafted (some don't have the option to come back).
Third, and most importantly, nobody should be surprised when they go undrafted. The feedback given by the NFL Advisory Board is very simple: first round, second round or "return to school." If a player elects to leave for the draft when he was given a grade of "return to school," that is his own fault. Guys given first- or second-round grades are not falling out of the draft barring some bizarre injury discovery. It's important to listen to the unbiased experts and not an agent or media member who doesn't necessarily have real information or a prospect's best interest at heart.
But why not let them back in school? Timing, as Miami head coach Mark Richt points out to the Palm Beach Post.
"I don’t think you use the model that the NBA has," Miami football coach Mark Richt said. "Guys declare, then you sign a class, then they want to come back and you don’t have room for him? What are you going to do, save room for a guy who may or may not come back? That would be tough to do."
A rule like this would maybe help maybe 5-10 players a year nationally, create far more headaches than that and unfairly prejudice incoming players. It's one of those things that sounds nice in theory but in practice just doesn't work.
Additionally, the amount of training required to do well at the combine essentially requires a player to withdraw from school, which could jeopardize his academic eligibility and further complicate matters.
I do think I have a solution to this on a very limited basis: If a prospect is given a first- or second-round grade by the NFL Advisory Board and is then undrafted by some freak circumstance, he would be allowed to return to school and not count against the scholarship limit. Players who received the "return to school" evaluation and failed to heed it would not be allowed to return. This is a very rare circumstance that would not open itself up to potential abuse from loophole-seeking coaches.
Do you have a system that would work? Let's discuss this in the comment section. If you come up with something really good, it may appear in a future edition of The Crootletter.