A fun college football betting hypothetical sure to inspire debate.
Covering college football for SB Nation is a job, but it’s also fun. And one enjoyable element is the discussions had in our editorial chat room.
Recently, we kicked around a question: Which group of teams would we be comfortable taking to win the national title against the field? For instance, everyone would take the preseason top 10 of the Coaches Poll against the field. That’s obvious but unfair to the side taking the field.
So what would be fair? Three teams v. the field? Five? Seven? And which teams?
To answer this question, I spoke with three experienced oddsmakers from sportsbooks, both in Las Vegas and offshore.
Scott Cooley of Bookmaker.eu felt comfortable with five teams v. the field as an even wagering proposition: Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, LSU, Oklahoma.
"That's taking our five lowest odds, and lumping the remaining 123 teams into the field," Cooley said. "Of course, you could create a number of different combinations against the field."
How did Cooley arrive at those five teams?
It's really about public perception and reaction. We know that there won't be many significant wagers for teams outside of the top 10 lowest odds on our board. But if you grouped the top 10 teams against the field, the odds would be heavily weighted toward the favorites.
With the way I've created the odds, bettors looking outside that "Big 5" see value with teams like Michigan, Florida State, Tennessee, Notre Dame, Stanford, Ole Miss, etc. In the back of your head you probably know that one of those teams in the top 5 will win the national title, but you get a lot of legitimate contenders and all of the darkhorses with the "FIELD" option.
Just looking at these odds, it'd take me a long look as to which side to ultimately wager on.
Dave Mason of BetOnline.com believes six teams would create an even field.
"Going by our current odds, six teams would be the fewest: Alabama, Clemson, LSU, Michigan, Ohio State and Notre Dame vs. the field," Mason said, agreeing many different combinations could be created.
The common theme is that taking the top five or six teams presents close to a fair wagering opportunity. Our third bookmaker, Chris Andrews of South Point Sportbook and Casino in Las Vegas, also went that route.
If you took the favorite or semi-favorite from [each of] the Power 5 conferences, it would be pretty close to pick ‘em.
Oklahoma and Alabama are clear [conference] favorites at this point. In the Big Ten, you would have either Michigan or Ohio State (not both); Pac-12 either Washington or Stanford (again, not both); and ACC either Florida State or Clemson. I would use Michigan, Washington and Clemson, but I could easily be talked into the other in all three instances.
Andrews told SB Nation that he might open the prop Saturday, so if you’re in Las Vegas and are so inclined, be sure to check that out.
Which side would you take?
If faced with the idea of taking the five conference favorites or the field, I’d go with the field. The reason is that I do not believe that the Pac-12 or Big 12 winner has a strong chance to win the national title due to their recruiting.
If I could take any five teams, I’d be more inclined to take my chances with five of these six: Alabama, Ohio State, LSU, Michigan, Clemson and FSU.
How about you? Let us know in the comment section.