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Welcome to The Crootletter (sign up to get this in your inbox every morning!). I'm Bud Elliott, SB Nation's National Recruiting Analyst, and in this space I'll be sharing news, rumors and musings on the world of college football recruiting as well as the occasional gambling column.
Is Alabama really going to start a true freshman at quarterback? The smoke coming from Tuscaloosa suggests it’s a real possibility.
Jalen Hurts, the No. 3 dual-threat QB in the class of 2016 enrolled early and simulated Deshaun Watson on the scout team in Alabama’s preparation for the Clemson QB. Since then the 6’2, 208-pound passer has apparently stolen the show with his ability to run and pass. In high school he threw 61 touchdowns against just 12 interceptions and added 2,654 rushing yards and 51 touchdowns on the ground.
Alabama’s goal is always the national title. But can it really win one with a true freshman at QB? It last occurred 30 years ago, with Jamelle Holieway taking over for an injured Troy Aikman and leading Oklahoma to the 1985 championship.
Of course, If any team has the talent to win a national title with a true freshman at quarterback, it’s Alabama. The Tide have recruited better than any team in the country over the last four years, and by a sizable margin. And because of that, Alabama has been able to minimize the importance of the QB position to its team relative to other programs. It’s chalk, but Alabama is my national title pick and I really do not care all that much which QB the Tide rolls with.
If it happens, though, it could create a bit of a transfer headache because Hurts would be beating out three older QBs in Blake Barnett, Cooper Bateman and David Cornwell. Plus, the Tide have two blue-chip QB commitments in Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones. If either of them see that Alabama is going with a true freshman, will that cause them to look elsewhere, knowing that to play they would need to beat out an incumbent starter or redshirt and hope for a year or two of playing time? Other schools will be raising this point if it happens.
Quickly
I may write more about this as more details come out, but the NCAA is now granting immunity to players on other SEC teams to allow them to speak about Ole Miss’ recruitment of them. I believe everyone skirts the rules to get recruits, but suspicions are easily raised when a program that has won next to nothing in the last half-century starts to beat out elite programs for recruits. Ole Miss’ recruiting is struggling with the NCAA cloud hanging over its head, with just two four- and five-star commitments as of Thursday.
Bill Connelly now says that Louisville, aka Transfer U, is the most experienced team in the country. I personally think Louisville is the No. 3 team in the ACC, but it is stuck in the Atlantic Division with Clemson and Florida State.
State Of The U breaks down Miami’s class. Mark Richt is doing a good job so far, and if the Hurricanes surprise this year Miami could land some elite players.
Alligator Army did a strong job breaking down the de- and re-commitment of four-star running back Adarius Lemons.
Shutdown Fullcastwelcomes former SEC linemen Andy Staples and Stephen White to talk big things and large matters of weighty importance.
Previously
For the last decade-plus, the national champion has signed more four- and five-stars than two- and three-stars in its previous four classes. This year,13 teams meet that the mark, and there are some surprise inclusions. It’s the annual Blue-Chip Ratio piece.
With the help of some Las Vegas and offshore oddsmakers, I attempted to answer a question: Which group ofhow many teams would we be comfortable taking to win the national title against the rest of college football?
Ultimately, the oddsmakers settled on a few groups of five teams that could present equal odds against the field.
Monday, I asked those same oddsmakers to give odds on the 13 Blue-Chip Ratio qualifiers winning the national title against the field.