
Welcome to The Crootletter (sign up to get this in your inbox!). I'm Bud Elliott, SB Nation's National Recruiting Analyst, and in this space I'll be sharing news, rumors and musings on the world of college football recruiting as well as the occasional gambling column.
On Monday, I read an article by Lee Barfknecht of the Omaha World-Herald calling for toughness in the Nebraska program, from the players to the coaches to the administration. It notes Nebraska has not won a conference or national title in 16 years. Barfknecht is extremely well connected in Nebraska and is a respected columnist, so if he says Nebraska lacks toughness I’ll take his word for it.
Toughness is an important quality. But I hit "control+f" on the piece and searched for the words "talent" and "recruit." It returned zero results. Why focus on an intangible before figuring out the more important tangible?
One of Byrne’s favorite things as athletic director was to tell his coaches, "You need to think about how to win a national title, and I’ll do everything I can to help." It wasn’t a threat. It was about building a championship mindset.
Is anybody in NU’s athletic administration doing that today? The scoreboard in most sports says no.
The recruiting scoreboard tells us that over the last four cycles, Ohio State has signed 69 four- and five-star players, Michigan 51 and Nebraska just 17. That’s the competition in the Big Ten. When the talent gap is that large, should toughness really be the primary focus?
The lack of local talent has always been an issue at Nebraska. As our fine Nebraska outlet Corn Nation detailed, the lack of recruits within a 500-mile radius is glaring.
Andy Staples of Sports Illustrated has some great thoughts on this:
World definitely changed around Nebraska. Regular national titles are unreasonable. Regular B1G West titles aren't. https://t.co/w15DSAdtmh
— Andy Staples (@Andy_Staples) August 29, 2016
Staples notes the advantages Nebraska once had, like its innovative walk-on program ...
There were "academic scholarships" that happened to go to the best football players in each county. Not allowed now. https://t.co/6udKIWTNw7
— Andy Staples (@Andy_Staples) August 29, 2016
... and strength and conditioning program, which was so far ahead of the national standard at the time ...
Exactly. They basically invented the modern S&C program. Imagine what at advantage that was at the time. https://t.co/wcGadVEeHN
— Andy Staples (@Andy_Staples) August 29, 2016
... and its ability to take non- and partial-academic qualifiers and bring recruits to campus via private jets.
You're correct. So many differences between how recruiting works now and 25 years ago. https://t.co/iQWN6mif3U
— Andy Staples (@Andy_Staples) August 29, 2016
Tim Layden of Sports Illustrated explained the partial- and non-qualifier rules that changed once Nebraska joined the Big XII two decades ago.
Still, what most threatens Nebraska's championship streak is the Big 12's policy on accepting partial and non-qualifiers under NCAA freshman eligibility guidelines. (A partial qualifier is a prospective athlete who meets only one of two minimum academic requirements--grade point average or standardized test score. The minimums are a 2.0 GPA with a 900 on the SAT or 21 on the ACT;or a 2.5 GPA with a 700 SAT or 17 ACT. A non-qualifier meets neither standard. If a school accepts a partial or non-qualifier, the athlete is ineligible for athletics for one year). On Dec. 20 the Big 12 presidents voted unanimously to limit each school to four partial qualifiers per year (two men,two women) and no more than one in a single sport. Non-qualifiers were excluded entirely.
In the Fiesta Bowl, Nebraska started four partial or non-qualifiers (cornerback Michael Booker, defensive tackle Christian Peter, cornerback Tyrone Williams and defensive end Jared Tomich), and two others, wideout Reggie Baul and outside linebacker Jamel Williams, played almost as much as the starters. According to Nebraska officials there were at least 12 partial or non-qualifiers in the program last fall. "Among elites schools Nebraska is a true haven for partial and non-qualifiers," said the coach of another elite school.
Layden’s article was titled "HEADED FOR A FALL? NEBRASKA MAY WIN ANOTHER NATIONAL TITLE, BUT THE DAYS WHEN SUCH A COLOSSUS RULED THE GAME ARE OVER" and it was prescient. I totally recommend reading it in its entirety because Layden nailed it.
Staples strongly believes Nebraska needs to do something different, like go back to the option in order to overcome its recruiting issues. There’s little evidence to support the idea that Nebraska can get the players needed to run a great pro-style offense in Lincoln, as it has been attempting to do in some form or fashion for over a decade. Running a creative system seems easier than getting elite talent to Lincoln.
But Nebraska being in such a weak division is quite helpful. While it’s very unlikely to be as good as an Ohio State or Michigan in a given year, the odds of it beating them in a one-off championship game are not awful. If the Huskers can get to the Big Ten Championship every few years, they are bound to win it every once in a while.
Quickly
Burnt Orange nation spoke with highly coveted defensive tackle Alec Jackson about his interest in Texas.
This isn't *quite* the best CFB opening weekend ever, but that's fine BEST EVER LET'S GET IT https://t.co/4RsxnIem0Q
— jason (@JasonKirkSBN) August 30, 2016
What narratives will we be sick of by the end of the season? Michael Bird has a few good ones.
Gambling injury notes
As SB Nation’s gambling correspondent, I have long lamented the lack of a centralized injury listing spot for college football. In all of the pro sports, injury info is comparatively easy to access. So, I’ll try to list any significant injuries or absences here for the folks who enjoy wagering, until I figure out a better method.
Offensive line is not a spot to be missing players when facing off against Alabama, USC.
#USC soph. Chuma Edoga will start at LT vs 'Bama in place of All-Pac-12 Chad Wheeler (foot). It will be Edoga's 1st start at LT, 3rd overall
— Adam Maya (@AdamJMaya) August 30, 2016
Edoga is a former five-star recruit out of Georgia. There was some debate during his recruitment about whether he should be considered a guard or tackle, because he doesn’t have ideal tackle length. But he does have elite feet, which should be helpful against the Tide.
Wisconsin’s leading tackler T.J. Edwards has been ruled out against LSU with a foot injury.
Previously
South Carolinawon a major recruiting battle that could help bring more stars to the Gamecocks.
Can Alabamawin the national title with a true freshman quarterback?
For the last decade-plus, the national champion has signed more four- and five-star players than two- and three-stars in its previous four classes. This year, 13 teams meet that mark, and there are some surprise inclusions. It’s the annual Blue-Chip Ratio piece.
With the help of some Las Vegas and offshore oddsmakers, I attempted to answer a question: Which group ofhow many teams would we be comfortable taking to win the national title against the rest of college football?
Ultimately, the oddsmakers settled on a few groups of five teams that could present equal odds against the field.
Monday, I asked those same oddsmakers to give odds on the 13 Blue-Chip Ratio qualifiers winning the national title against the field.