Can Bud’s picks continue the bounce-back hot streak?
All wagers at -110 odds unless otherwise noted. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.
Season record: 68-72
I would say my luck is beginning to turn a bit, but it hasn’t. I’ve just made better picks. I am still 6-17 in spreads decided by a field goal or less. On average, my wins have been by 35 percent more than my losses ( 14 to 10.4).
After a horrible 33-51 start, I am 35-21 in my last two weeks. If you quit following me or started to fade me after that start, I can’t say that I blame you.
While this week might not be the most fun to watch, remember that bets pay the same, regardless of whether the game is on ESPN or ESPN3.
Wednesday
1. Appalachian State at Louisiana Lafayette +10.5: Lafayette's rush defense is much better than its pass defense, which matches up well with the strengths of ASU.
Friday
2. Duke at Louisville -34: Duke's offense is really awful, which should give Louisville many chances to score.
3. Mississippi State at BYU -7: Mississippi State's offense is really bad, and this is an awkwardly timed road trip.
4. San Diego State -16.5 at Fresno State: I successfully backed Fresno State last week, but this line should be 5-7 points higher, as Fresno State's rushing defense is poor.
Saturday
5. Ohio State -10 at Wisconsin: Wisconsin has a salty defense, but has faced nothing but pro-style offenses so far in LSU, Michigan State, and Michigan. Ohio State is a different animal. Also, the Badgers' offense is awful.
6. Alabama -12 at Tennessee: I have successfully bet on or against Tennessee four times this season. Here's one for the thumb. Alabama will make Josh Dobbs throw the football less efficiently than Georgia or Texas A&M did.
7. North Carolina +7 at Miami: Miami was beaten up last week, and North Carolina should bounce back on offense in better conditions.
8. Ole Miss -7 at Arkansas: Arkansas has allowed a combined 1,680 yards on 200 plays to TCU, Alabama, and Texas A&M. That is an astounding 8.4 yards/play. Ole Miss is off a bye week.
9. Eastern Michigan +7.5 at Ohio: Eastern Michigan is merely bad, not awful, which is a change from the norm.
10. Ball State -10 at Buffalo: One of the important things in wagering is knowing good from great. But it's also important to know bad from awful. Sometimes the latter is tougher. Ball State is bad; Buffalo is awful.
11. UConn at USF -19: Wish I could have grabbed the opener at -17, but this is a Tuesday column. Connecticut was a winner for me last weekend, but South Florida's offense can really score, and I do not think the Huskies can keep up.
12. Virginia Tech at Syracuse +20: Virginia Tech is a hot team and was a winner for this column last week, but this is a clear sandwich spot coming off a huge win over UNC and hosting Miami. The back door could be wide open here.
13. Iowa -12 at Purdue: Iowa has gone from overrated in 2015 to underrated in 2016. Purdue won last week but gave up 315 rushing yards to Illinois.
14. Minnesota at Maryland -4: The value of betting against Maryland was a lot greater last week than this week after the blowout at Penn State.
15. Iowa State +13.5 at Texas: Texas was incredibly lucky with missed calls and turnovers to be in the game against Oklahoma. Iowa State has been feisty.
16. Kansas State at Oklahoma -10: Oklahoma was extremely unlucky to not cover against Texas, and Kansas State is simply not that great.
17. Nebraska at Indiana +4: Indiana might win this game outright and is a good football team.
18. Missouri +14 at Florida: I do not trust Florida's offense to score enough to win by 14.
19. Pitt at Virginia +3: Virginia is off a bye, and Pitt has played so many tough games in a row. This is a prime letdown spot.
20. West Virginia at Texas Tech +2: This is a very tough road trip, even off a bye, and Texas Tech's offense should score a ton. Maybe its defense will get a few turnovers, too.
21. New Mexico +15 at Air Force: New Mexico should be able to control the ball enough to keep this game close. Air Force's offense is nothing like the Boise State attack that ripped the Lobos last week.
22. Tulsa at Houston -21: Tulsa might be the worst one-loss team in America, and Houston should be angry after losing to Navy.
23. Georgia Southern +11 at Georgia Tech: It is tough to imagine Georgia Tech will match Southern's intensity level in this contest.
24. Georgia State at Troy -16.5: I backed State to get its first win of the season last week and won, but Troy is a much better team and is off a bye.
25. UTSA -3 at Rice: I am quite surprised that this number is not a touchdown or more, given Rice’s free fall. The Owls are off a bye, but UTSA has been playing well.
26. Central Michigan at Northern Illinois +3: The wrong team is favored. NIU is the best five-loss team in the country and will win outright.
27. Wake Forest at Florida State -20.5: Wake Forest might be the worst one-loss team in the country aside from Tulsa (and maybe Middle Tennessee). Florida State is in an obvious letdown spot off the win against Miami, but not a look-ahead contest, with a bye week on deck.
28. Western Kentucky +2 at Middle Tennessee State: I think the Hilltoppers win outright, as Middle Tennessee's wins are not all that impressive. WKU playing on Thursday helps to mitigate the impact of MTSU having a bye, to some extent.
29. Utah at Oregon State +10: Utah is seriously banged up, and Oregon State is not awful and much improved from 2015.