Let’s pick some winners in SB Nation’s weekly college football gambling column.
All wagers at -110 odds unless otherwise noted. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.
Season record: 105-117.
Welp, 12 games under .500 on the year won’t get it done. 10-27 on the year in wagers decided by a field goal or less is pure bad luck, and if I could just get neutral luck in those situations, I’d be above even. My wins have been by an average of 14.6 points, and my losses have come by an average of 10.4. I’ll keep firing.
Week 10 is sneaky good. With only two games featuring ranked teams playing other ranked teams, you might be tempted to do something with your time during the day until the night games start. But there are six more games featuring ranked teams favored by less than a touchdown, and another three featuring ranked teams favored by less than two touchdowns. There is a strong chance that a third or fourth of ranked teams go down this weekend. That’s drama.
In the ACC, I am excited to see if North Carolina and Virginia Tech can hold serve against Georgia Tech and Duke, respectively, as the Tar Heels and Hokies try to hold serve in the ACC Coastal race.
And if Florida defeats Arkansas, it will lock up the SEC East barring a home loss to South Carolina. I am also weirdly interested in Georgia at Kentucky. With games left against Kentucky, Auburn, and Georgia Tech, UGA is not a lock to make a bowl game.
Wednesday
1. Toledo -9 at Akron: Both teams are off disappointing upset losses, but Toledo has the better track record.
Thursday
2. Arkansas State at Georgia State +3.5: I backed Arkansas State last week, but did not expect the Red Wolves to be a road favorite here. I'll take the points in a game I handicapped as a pick ’em.
3. Oklahoma at Iowa State +21.5: Oklahoma has a big game on deck with Baylor coming to Norman. Will it fall into the look-ahead trap?
4. UCLA at Colorado -11: Both teams are off a bye. Colorado has a large coaching advantage.
Friday
5. Central Michigan at Miami (OH) +4: I thought the Redhawks should be a short home favorite, so I'll gladly take the points.
6. Temple -10 at UConn: I made this number 14, even on the road, as UConn is in a free fall. The Huskies have not scored 30 points in a game this year.
7. San Jose State at Boise State -28.5: A loss to Wyoming creates some value on Boise State. Had the Broncos not lost on a safety, this line would likely be north of 30.
Saturday
8. Alabama -7.5 at LSU: Alabama is very public, which is scary. But the Tide's defensive front should be able to control LSU's run game enough to pull away. The two defenses against which LSU's offense has been rejuvenated under Ed Orgeron (Missouri and Ole Miss) have been awful of late.
9. Nebraska at Ohio State -16.5: Back-to-back tough road games for Nebraska is not a good route when the second leg is the Buckeyes.
10. Oregon +17 at USC: I have been on the USC bandwagon of late, but this is a lot of points in what figures to be a shootout.
11. Florida State at NC State +6: Jimbo Fisher's teams on the road without Jameis Winston have not been reliable. NC State lost in an obvious letdown (Louisville loss) and look-ahead (FSU on deck) situation last week. This week, it is FSU that is in an obvious letdown spot.
12. Pitt +3.5 at Miami: I've wagered against Miami for four consecutive weeks. Make it five. This is a 12:30 local kickoff, meaning the stadium will be empty. Pitt has had two extra days to rest up after having played on Thursday.
13. Navy v. Notre Dame -6: Navy looked awful against South Florida, trailing by 25 with eight minutes left. The final result was deceiving.
14. BYU -7.5 at Cincinnati: BYU is off a bye week, and Cincinnati might have quit on the season. The Bearcats had just 186 yards of offense against Temple.
15. Purdue at Minnesota -17: Purdue's run defense is quite bad, which should help Minnesota's play-action passing attack.
16. Virginia Tech -11 at Duke: Virginia Tech outplayed Pitt by much more than the three-point margin from a week ago implies. Duke just lost leading running back Jela Duncan to an injury.
17. Kansas +35 at West Virginia: I am very surprised to see the number this high, even accounting for the travel. West Virginia is off an emotional loss and has a road trip to Texas on deck.
18. Virginia at Wake Forest -3: This is a play on Wake Forest's defense. It is also a play banking on Virginia having a letdown game after its loss against Louisville.
19. Oklahoma State +3 at Kansas State: This screams "trap,” but my numbers make Oklahoma State a short road favorite.
20. East Carolina at Tulsa -7.5: The Tulsa offense has really kicked into gear, scoring 40 or more points in every FBS game, except for against Houston and Ohio State.
21. UTSA +21 at Middle Tennessee State: I just do not understand this line. Middle Tennessee's defense is not very good. Perhaps two single-score wins in as many weeks have inflated this number.
22. UMass at Troy -20.5: This feels like a trap, as Troy has a big game against Appalachian State coming up. However, the Trojans' offense should be far too good here.
23. Louisiana Tech at North Texas +21: Louisiana Tech has been a money train of late, but at some number you have to be willing to take points. Maybe I will get run over.
24. Memphis at SMU +3: SMU has been playing well in recent weeks. Memphis' pass defense is not what its run defense is.