College football picks: FSU, Texas, a Michigan-OSU slugfest, and 33 more Rivalry Week bets

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A loaded weekend of college football also produces a loaded weekend of picks.

All wagers at -110 odds unless otherwise noted. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.

Season record: 147-143.

This picks column is finally on a roll, but that 51 percent won’t get it done, though it also won’t cause you to go bankrupt. I’ve had better years and worse years. Hitting only 39 percent in games decided by a field goal or less has hurt quite a bit, and with some neutral luck in that category, I’d be well in the black on the year. Margins are holding steady, too, with wins by an average of 14 points and losses by an average of 11.

Finally, we get a good week of football to enjoy. I’ve often lamented the weak schedules, but last week finally did me in. There was nothing worth watching after 7 p.m. ET, and I turned the games off, and went to bed early.

But this week is exciting. I hope everyone has a safe and happy Thanksgiving, and that rivalry week is also a profitable one.

Tuesday

1. Ball State +7.5 at Miami (OH): This is strictly a play on power ratings, as I believe BSU should be closer to a field goal underdog than a touchdown.

2. Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan +1.5: My ratings have EMU as the favorite.

Thursday

3. LSU -4.5 at Texas A&M: LSU was the better team last week in its loss to Florida, with 36 percent of Florida's yards coming on one play, the most by any team in a 2016 win.

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Friday

4. NC State +12 at UNC: This just feels like a ton of points. NC State has a strong defensive line and can attack UNC's linebackers.

5. Buffalo at Bowling Green -13: This is a wager on Bowling Green QB James Morgan. I believe he has real talent and would have killed it in former head coach Dino Babers' system. But he is improving now after a rough start.

6. Toledo +9.5 at Western Michigan: Western Michigan is the rare public MAC team, which creates some value on Toledo, a strong squad.

7. Arkansas at Missouri +8: Missouri's offense has been sneakily better over the last few games, while its defense has been rather poor. I'll take the points in a likely shootout.

8. Cincinnati at Tulsa -22: I believe Cincinnati has checked out on the year, while Tulsa is making real progress under Phil Montgomery.

9. TCU at Texas -2: I expect Texas' players to go really hard for Charlie Strong in his final game as head coach. Yes, I realize this squad just lost to Kansas.

10. Boise State -9 at Air Force: Laying more than a touchdown in this spot is somewhat scary, but Air Force is not a great team, and Boise is rolling on the ground.

11. Washington -5.5 at Washington State: Washington might not be a Playoff-quality team, but it is equipped to give the Cougars defense problems.

12. Arizona State at Arizona +3: I am not laying points with Arizona State against any Power 5 team at this point. Except Rutgers. Rutgers is awful.

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Saturday

13. Auburn at Alabama -17: I have a lot of respect for Auburn's excellent defensive line, but the Tigers' passing game has not clicked in weeks. It's tough to run on the Tide.

14. Florida at Florida State -6.5: Florida State's defense is not the best, but Florida's offense has looked bad against the best (LSU) and worst (Arkansas) defenses it has faced.

15. Michigan at Ohio State Under 48: I believe each defense holds a distinct advantage over the opposing offense.

16. Mississippi State +8 at Ole Miss: I expect this will be a shootout and that Mississippi State will have a lot of success running against a decimated Ole Miss defense.

17. Mississippi State at Ole Miss over 68.5: See above.

18. South Carolina at Clemson -23.5: Clemson will be up for this game and pour it on.

19. Tulane +1 at Connecticut: Both teams were terrible last weekend. And this game will be played in cold weather. Tulane is still the better team.

20. Rutgers at Maryland -13: This is the difference between bad and terrible. Maryland is bad, but Rutgers is terrible. As in, only-87-yards-of-offense-against-Penn State terrible.

21. Syracuse at Pittsburgh -24: Syracuse is without starting quarterback Eric Dungey yet again, and the Orange are playing three true freshmen on the defensive line. James Conner is going to eat in his final home game.

22. Purdue at Indiana -20: Indiana is, in my estimation, a lot better than Purdue. The Hoosiers need this win to become bowl eligible.

23. Michigan State +13 at Penn State: The Spartans have played much better of late, and this is a lot of points to lay on the road.

24. Boston College at Wake Forest -3: Boston College's offense is terrible, while Wake's is merely bad. Wake also plays similar quality defense and is at home.

25. Kansas at Kansas State -26: I backed Kansas last week, and while I believe the Jayhawks to be an improved team, Kansas State has been rolling on offense.

26. Georgia Tech at Georgia -4: Georgia stops the run very well, and that should create enough chances for the Bulldogs' offense to score.

27. UCLA at Cal +3.5: I see no reason to not take the points in what could be another Cal shootout.

28. Nevada at UNLV -8.5: UNLV hung tough with Boise State for a bit, and I do not believe Nevada's late-game magic is sustainable.

29. San Jose State at Fresno State +3: I think Fresno State should be a small favorite.

30. FIU at Old Dominion -13: The Monarchs have been playing great football of late, winning seven of eight.

31. Oregon at Oregon State +3: The Beavers have an argument to be favored here at home. I do not buy Oregon's turnaround, despite the win over Utah.

32. Navy at SMU +7: SMU played USF extremely tough last week, and this feels like a trap to spring.

33. North Texas -3.5 at UTEP: While North Texas is a bad team, UTEP is an awful team.

34. UCF at USF -10: UCF's offense over the last four games has been a train wreck. I do not believe the Knights can score with the Bulls.

35. Charlotte at UTSA -9.5: The Road Runners are now back in a winnable spot after losing to Louisiana Tech and Texas A&m by double digits. Charlotte has had a lot of turnover luck lately.

36. Rice +36 at Stanford: This is a bet on Rice being able to throw a bit against Stanford's secondary, and on Stanford's pace shortening the game a bit.

Thoughts on games I did not bet

West Virginia at Iowa State +8 : I'd love to take +10 here, but Vegas is being stingy and offering eight.

Notre Dame at USC -17: The Irish have been bad this year, but have rarely been blown out.