Look at all the former 2-star recruits in the AFC and NFC Championships, but there’s a catch

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Columns like this are easy money. At some point, you’d think I’d stop getting mileage off dropping a “well actually” on folks who think recruiting rankings are complete BS, and that players turn out to be good or bad at random. The final rounds of the NFL Playoffs provide that opportunity on a yearly basis.

You’re about to hear about how many two- and three-stars, or even players who were not ranked, are on the rosters of the teams in the conference championship games, and, eventually, the Super Bowl.

Those numbers will be true, but the way that they’ll be used will be misleading.

SB Nation’s Richard Johnson broke it down for us, finding the star ratings of the starters in the AFC Championship between the Steelers and Patriots, and the NFC Championship between the Packers and Falcons.

I’ve combined that data into the table below.

77 percent of the starters were rated two- or three-stars, or not rated at all.

This is a stat that everyone will pounce on. 68 of the 88 starters not being four- or five-star recruits seems pretty substantial.

Until you consider how rare four- and five-star recruits actually are.

Each year, roughly 4,500 football players sign Division I scholarships. In 2010, the year from which most of the prospects in the 2014 draft came, 27 were rated as five-stars by Rivals.com. Five-stars are considered no-doubt, superstar-type players. There were 395 four-stars, a designation for very good players, and 1,644 three-stars, or good players. And 2,434 were rated as two-stars or not rated at all, meaning they are at the lowest levels of FBS (85-scholarship level) or FCS players (63-scholarship level).

Five-stars make up less than one percent of Division I recruits, yet five percent of the AFC and NFC Championship starters.

That doesn’t seem random. Five-stars make up 0.6 percent of all Division I scholarship recruits, but five percent of the starters. That an over-representation by eight times.

Four-stars make up just nine percent of Division I recruits, yet 18 percent of the AFC and NFC Championship starters.

That doesn’t seem random, either. I made a meme for this.

This is because recruiting rankings, while not perfect, are actually very good at identifying talent. They are also rapidly improving thanks to certain technological advancements.

A 5-star desert?

This is always fun to do. Alex Kirshner plotted where the five-star players are this year, and then used a mapping tool to find out the square mileage of the huge swath of the Midwest and the West where there are none. This year, it totaled more than 2-million square miles.

It’s been 10 years since a national champion came from within the footprint (Texas, 2005).

Quickly

Four-star Virginia safety Devon Hunter made his college decision Friday night at his basketball game, picking Virginia Tech over Florida, Auburn, Alabama, Ole Miss, and North Carolina.

Georgia’s recruiting class this year is absolutely ridiculous.

In most any other year, Georgia’s class could well be talked about as the nation’s best. Nineteen of Kirby Smart’s 23 commitments are rated four or five-stars. The rest of the SEC East has 20. Combined. That dominance relative to the rest of the division is far greater than what Alabama does to the SEC West.

The strength of Georgia’s class is its offensive line. Georgia’s six offensive linemen rank Nos. 2, 5, 7, 12, 16, and 21 at their positions nationally. It’s a great job of addressing what was the biggest hole on the roster left by former head coach Mark Richt.

And Georgia has the No. 2 and 3 safety recruits nationally, in Richard LeCounte III, and Deangelo Gibbs, both of Georgia.

The Bulldogs are locking down the state like never before. Seventeen of its 23 commitments are from the Peach State. And they might not be done. They have a shot to land the state’s No. 3 player in defensive tackle Aubrey Solomon, as well as No. 19 in defensive end Markaviest Bryant, and No. 21 in linebacker Leonard Warner.

A final piece could come from Alabama four-star receiver Nico Collins.

But things seem to be getting even better. Georgia is making big moves with 2018 and 2019 prospects, according to our Dawg Sports.

Ole Miss’ class is in shambles, due to the NCAA cloud, but the Rebels are trying to change that this weekend by welcoming a number of top visitors.

LSU is looking to fill eight spots, and will be welcoming a host of top visitors this weekend as well.