Why Ole Miss’ next head coach can win, even if the Rebels suck for a while

Hugh Freeze’s exit and the NCAA cloud mean a few bad years are coming, but now Ole Miss knows what it takes.

So what now? Hugh Freeze is out as Ole Miss’ head football coach due to a “pattern of personal misconduct” the school found after reviewing phone records upon gaining knowledge of a call made to an escort service:

A one-minute call made from the university-issued phone of Ole Miss football coach Hugh Freeze to a number associated with a female escort service was raised as a potential issue in the back-and-forth between the university’s legal counsel and the attorney for former Rebels football coach Houston Nutt, according to records and correspondence obtained by USA TODAY Sports.

It’s sort of amazing that alleged NCAA misdeeds were not what did him in in Oxford, but here we are.

Starting fresh is smart

Ole Miss had dug in and was prepared to defend Freeze to the NCAA, as opposed to offering him up as a sacrificial lamb. That strategy, at least in the short term, had some merit and some drawbacks.

The school will probably still have to defend Freeze against the NCAA, as it cannot simply reverse course this late in the game. There is a strong possibility that Freeze’s departure could lessen the NCAA blow.

But I couldn’t shake the feeling that Ole Miss would’ve never again risen to prominence under Freeze, after those two big bowl appearances, and didn’t fully understand why the Rebels thought of him as some sort of savior.

The money Ole Miss saves by not paying Freeze’s buyout could be used on a new coach

The ouster comes with no buyout and no settlement. That’s big because Freeze had signed an extension through 2019. While Freeze’s buyout number is not listed on USA Today’s database, he made almost $5 million per year.

The interim head coach is Matt Luke, the offensive line coach who turned down overtures from South Carolina in the offseason. Luke has been groomed for the position in case something like this happened, SB Nation’s Steven Godfrey reported, and will have an opportunity to prove himself.

If Luke can exceed expectations, Ole Miss will have the money to keep him. If he does not, the Rebels can splash the pot to find someone else, perhaps like SEC veteran Charlie Strong, who should have a great 2017 at USF.

Ole Miss has a long time to find a replacement for Freeze, assuming it doesn’t end up hiring a Freeze staffer.

The quality of the roster is plummeting

Freeze went 19-21 in the SEC West during his five seasons at the helm, including an 11-5 stretch over the 2014-15 seasons. The Rebels reached unseen recruiting heights under him, with much of that success raising eyebrows throughout the Southeast.

But at least for right now, that is done. It’s tough to believe the Rebels will have a winning SEC record over two seasons at any point in the near future.

Ole Miss has self-imposed sanctions, including a bowl ban and scholarship reductions:

The program will dock itself 10 football scholarships over the next three seasons (two in 2016, and four each in 2017 and 2018), plus one it's counting from the 2015 season. It also self-imposes a $159,352 fine, and "involved staff" will undergo "additional rules education" on NCAA policy.

Without knowing what will happen to the NCAA case, it is safe to assume the Rebels are going to spend some time in the basement.

From 2013 to 2016, the Rebels signed 35 prospects rated four- or five-stars on the 247Sports Composite, an average of about nine per class.

In 2017, Ole Miss signed three, one of whom wasn’t all that highly coveted by other programs due to some issues and another who might not qualify. In 2018, the Rebels have zero committed.

I see and talk with thousands of prospects a year in my role as National Recruiting Analyst for SB Nation.

Several years ago, elite prospects brought up Ole Miss constantly. I have not had an elite player mention Ole Miss to me in 2017

So in addition to not signing as many players as their SEC West competitors, due to sanctions, the Rebels are also not signing the kind of players it takes to be competitive in the country’s most talented division.

This, more than anything else, is why it was hard to see Freeze bouncing back from the NCAA scandal. Would boosters, believers, and administration really stick with Freeze through mounting losses and bad play?

In addition, while the Rebels have the luxury of a long coaching search, they have the pressing issue of the new early signing day rule, which will see talent sign elsewhere as uncertainty swirls around Ole Miss.

Oh, and the transfers. Already, intermediaries are texting and asking about talented players on Ole Miss’ roster like QB Shea Patterson, tackle Greg Little, defensive lineman Benito Jones, etc. If the Rebels start losing those players to transfers, things could get really bad.

Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

But in the long term, this does not kill Ole Miss

There are several lasting takeaways from Freeze’s tenure.

• Don’t use a government cell phone subject to FOIA to call an escort service.
• Don’t go 50 over the speed limit, so to speak, if everyone else is doing 20 over.
• But the biggest takeaway is that Ole Miss can win games.

Freeze showed that Oxford can become a destination for top recruits. He showed Ole Miss what sort of financial commitment it takes to seriously compete in what many consider to be the toughest division in football.

Now Ole Miss has had a taste of winning. The program will probably be pretty bad for the next half-decade. It could go something like 13-27 in league play. But when it’s in position again, Ole Miss will mash the gas pedal to get back on the lead lap.

It might be unrealistic to think the Rebels can regularly compete for the SEC title. They have not won one since 1963 and have never appeared in the SEC Championship Game.

But Ole Miss does not have to go back to being an SEC doormat for long. Despite every Rebels coach in the last four decades, other than David Cutcliffe, having a losing conference record, it does not have to be like that.

When the NCAA smoke has cleared, a good coach can look at what Freeze accomplished

He’ll look at the dollars the Rebels will commit to spend. He’ll look at the dampened expectations. And he’ll see a great opportunity for a fine tenure in Oxford.