Picking Alabama vs. FSU, Michigan vs. Florida, and more.
All wagers at -110 odds unless otherwise noted. My picks are in bold, with that team’s spread margin attached. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.
Welcome to another edition of COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMBLING. If gambling is legal in your state, cool. If it’s not, that’s not cool. This is one of my favorite columns to write each season. We’ll chat about wagers, odds, lines, strategy, and during slow weeks, I’ll write about some gambling terms that some readers might not know. The picks in this column are just picks against the spread, not necessarily who will win the game.
Friday
4. Boston College -3.5 at Northern Illinois: Boston College should be improved on offense, and I am not convinced of NIU’s run defense.
5. Colorado State +5.5 at Colorado: Colorado State is a legitimately good team. I am taking every opportunity to fade CU this season, because I believe the Buffs were not as good as their record last year, and thus could start the year overrated.
Saturday
6. Cal +12.5 at North Carolina: North Carolina lost a ton of offensive firepower. Larry Fedora has done an awful job in opening games at the head coach of the Tar Heels. I believe Cal will be able to score, and that Justin Wilcox will coach up the defense of the Golden Bears well enough.
7. Alabama v. Florida State +7.5: Alabama has the most talent in college football, but it doesn’t often face teams with close talent. Florida State is one of those teams, and this bet is on FSU’s defense keeping the game close, and FSU scoring just enough against an Alabama defense that is replacing a lot of key players.
9. Michigan -4 v. Florida: I am high on Michigan this year. Florida, on the other hand, is dealing with quite a few suspensions. Michigan has also out-recruited Florida by a significant margin over the last four seasons, as the Gators are running out of the the Muschamp-era defenders.
9. Maryland +19 at Texas: The Longhorns have questions at tight end, which is an integral part of blocking in Tom Herman’s offense. Maryland is going to be better this year, and Texas has USC on deck, so this is a potential lookahead spot.
10. Wyoming at Iowa -11.5: This is a bet on the physicality of Iowa, and against the hype of QB Josh Allen. Allen might be a top NFL prospect, but he is not yet a great college QB.
11. Kentucky at Southern Miss +10.5: Southern Miss is very well coached on defense and upset the Wildcats last year. While this is a revenge spot for UK, it is a lot of points to lay on the road.
12. Western Michigan +27.5 at USC: Western Michigan still has all of the players that P.J. Fleck recruited. USC has Stanford on deck, and this is an obvious lookahead spot.
13. Troy +11.5 at Boise State: Boise State lost a lot off its 2016 squad. Troy played Clemson tough last year and can score.
14. Appalachian State +14.5 at Georgia: The physical beating Miami gave to Appalachian State last year scares me, but App State did play Tennessee very tough last year. Georgia has Notre Dame on deck.
15. Ball State +7 at Illinois: Illinois(!) Is laying a touchdown! Against an FBS team! Yes!
16. South Carolina at NC State -5: North Carolina State’s defensive line might be the best one South Carolina faces this season.
17. BYU +16 at LSU: BYU did not look good against an FCS opponent in Week 1, but the line jumping from 12 to 16 seems like a bit of an overreaction to that. Will LSU have Arden Key?
18. Vanderbilt -3 at Middle Tennessee State: I respect MTSU, but this just seems short for a Vanderbilt program that is getting better. Ralph Webb is one of the SEC’s best running back.
19. West Virginia +4 v. Virginia Tech: I worry about West Virginia’s depth over the course of the season, but Virginia Tech is starting a freshman quarterback. I don’t believe the Hokies can score with the Mountaineers.
Thursday
1. UL-Monroe at Memphis -26: Louisiana Monroe was one of the worst teams in college football last year. Memphis can be very dangerous on offense and should be on point to start Week 1.
2. Tulsa +18.5 at Oklahoma State: Tulsa can really score. I am not convinced that Oklahoma State is a great team, as its preseason ranking would suggest.
3. FIU +17 at UCF: UCF was a betting darling last year in its bounce-back season, but now is a bit overvalued.
Thursday update: I went 0-3 on these.
It’s an awful start to the season. Memphis QB Riley Ferguson, who was awesome in 2016, went 10-25 for 97 yards and an interception. Still, Memphis rushed for 300+ and I’d easily make that wager again, as the result seems very flukey. Oklahoma State came out firing, as did UCF, and those were both wagers I deserved to lose.