Mizzou’s offense is really scary, and 17 other betting notes from college football’s Week 12

Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.

A few things you might’ve missed this weekend.

Every Friday, I publish my college football gambling column. And every week, I review what happened with my wins and losses. Since I play a lot of games, I figured the review would make a solid column. I went 12-11 this week, which is not profitable, but am 130-92 ATS on the year, which is great.

Check your tickets and your watches

Did you know that games must go 55 minutes for Vegas to consider them as having action? So blowouts like Delaware State vs. Florida State, in which 10-minute quarters were used, do not count.

Doing everything except scoring points

Arkansas State outgained Texas State 469-200, won the turnover battle 1-0, had a 23-11 first-down edge, and held the ball for 40 (!) minutes, yet didn’t cover the 26 because it couldn’t convert short yardage situations around midfield. The Red Wolves won 30-12.

Opposite day in Oxford

Ole Miss rushed for 200-plus and Texas A&M threw for almost 300. That's the exact opposite of what was expected, and 5.6 YPA for Ole Miss through the air is bad.

Missouri's run game is for real

It’s not simply a result of playing Florida and Tennessee when those looked to have quit. The four teams that average more than 5 YPC in SEC play are Alabama, Auburn, UGA, and ... yup, Missouri. In the last two weeks, Missouri QB Drew Lock is 23-of-53 (43 percent), yet has a QB rating of 154 because he is averaging 8.5 YPA. On the year, Lock has still been the SEC’s highest-rated passer.

WTF, UCLA run defense?

I don't feel bad about laying more than two touchdowns with USC. I'd do it again. USC’s run game has been awesome, and UCLA might have the worst rushing defense in the Power 5. The Bruins holding the Trojans under 4 YPC is one of the most unforeseeable results of the year.

New Mexico State’s offense is really good ... when QB Tyler Rogers plays

Unfortunately, Rogers got hurt and the backup, Nick Jeanty, threw three interceptions as the Aggies lost to Louisiana.

Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.

QB getting sidelined will change a game, Part Deux

Not that Michigan would have won the game had QB Brandon Peters not been hurt, but it certainly could have covered the spread of 8 in a game it lost 24-10. Peters’ QB rating was an OK 123. Backup John O’Korn posted a 44.

Ever seen a negative QB rating?

No real need to dig deep into the Northwestern thrashing of Minnesota. QB Demry Croft put up one of the all-time worst stat lines. Passes to his own team: 2. Passes to Northwestern defenders: 3. Passes that fell incomplete: 6. QB rating: -3.5.

Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.

Unsurprisingly, Minnesota did not cover.

North Texas allowed 534 rushing yards ... and covered

Army ran the ball 67 times for 534 yards, but North Texas had explosive passes of 68, 48, and 45 and won 52-49. What a contrast of styles.

Iowa allowed six sacks to Purdue

And the Hawkeyes had just 258 yards of total offense. I’m glad I got the cover with the Boilermakers, but what an awful game to watch.

Cal and Stanford both had 5.9 yards per play

However, Stanford has Bryce Love and Cal does not, and Love broke out with a 57-yard TD run when the Cardinal needed it. But Cal did cover the 16 points, losing 17-14.

Georgia outgained Kentucky 8.7-4.4 on a YPP basis

Kentucky has been statistically lucky, but is not good.

Bad bet: UAB

Credit to Florida for showing up and fighting a reasonably competent UAB team. The Gators dominated them like they haven’t any other opponent this season. The Blazers ran only 38 plays.

Bad bet: Oregon State

I said this on Friday:

I don't really like this play. I looked for a reason to spike it, but I cannot find a good enough reason to. My system this year is 37 games over .500, so play it and hold your nose.

Arizona State ran for 265 yards through three quarters and got up 40-10 before the Beavers put up some garbage-time scores to pull to 40-24.

Bad Bet: Cincinnati

Pathetic effort by the Bearcats, who allowed East Carolina to outgain them 578-326. East Carolina is not a good team, but it’s capable of that if the opponent doesn’t seem to care about being there.

Duke has Georgia Tech’s number

In the last four meetings, Duke has won by 23, lost by 3, won by 14, and won by 6.

Boise State outgained Air Force 7.8-4.6 on a per-play basis

That is domination. Boise had passes of 87, 39, 36, 33, 30, 29, and 15 yards.

Keep an eye on Armani Rogers at UNLV

The redshirt freshman threw for 211 and ran for 193 in the Rebels’ win over New Mexico, including some awesome throws on the final drive. I’ll be looking to play UNLV over its win total next year due to Rogers. UNLV lists Rogers at 6’5, 225, and he looks and plays every bit of that. There are a lot of defenders in the secondaries of the Mountain West who simply can’t handle that size.

Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports