The quarterback recruit crop for 2019 is lacking in elite talent. That’s tough if your school needs to land one.

Quarterback is the most important position in football. Most college programs want to carry four on scholarship, which means most schools will sign a QB every year.

Typically, only about 20 are rated four- or five-stars, so demand for elite QBs far outpaces supply. And teams usually do not move on from their No. 1 targets to accept a commitment from another until it is clear they are out of the running for their first choice. Lesser-rated recruits know this.

Given that teams rarely rotate quarterbacks, a top QB will often want to reserve his spot with the school of his choice. QB is also the noted position of leadership, so a committed QB often become a class’ lead recruiter.

Every year, we track the dominoes as they fall. QB1 picks school A, so School B moves on to QB2 as School C moves on to QB3. But then QB1 decommits from School A, and the cycle is thrown into chaos.

2019, though, seems a little different. The 2018 class was loaded with elite quarterbacks. Comparatively, the 2019 class looked a little light. And that was beforeJT Daniels, the No. 1 overall 2019 player, decided to skip his senior season and enroll at USC a year early. Now, the 2019 QB class is really lacking elites.

And that means teams who really need QBs are scrambling, while those who might not have such a need are considering waiting for 2020.

Summer ‘17: Big 12 powers land standout dual-threats

• Oklahoma adds Spencer Rattler(18 blue-chip QBs are left) of Phoenix, who commits over offers from Miami, Alabama, the Arizona schools, Texas A&M, Texas, and Notre Dame.
• Texas has added Roschon Johnson (17) of Port Neches (Texas). Johnson has offers from Ohio State, Penn State, Oklahoma, and Florida.
• Washington adds Dylan Morris (16) of Graham (Washington), and Wake Forest adds Brendon Clark of Midlothian (Virginia)

With Daniels off to USC a year early, and Rattler and Johnson off the board, talent West of the Mississippi is drying up quickly.

2017 football season: Little movement

• Michigan State adds Dwan Mathis (15) of Belleville (Michigan), while Rutgers picks up Zamar Wise of Newark (New Jersey).
• Wisconsin grabs Graham Mertz (14) of Mission (Kansas). A number of major programs like him, but want to see throw in person. Expect the Badgers to have a battle on their hands.
• Penn State adds Ta’Quan Roberson, of Wayne (NJ), who chooses the Nittany Lions over Virginia Tech and North Carolina.
• Louisville has picked up Jaden Johnson (13) of Memphis.

At this point, the vast majority of SEC and ACC schools are without 2019 quarterbacks.

Winter ‘17-18: New coaches bring new quarterbacks

After coaching change season and the Early Signing Period, a number of new QB commitments are expected, since they often visit for junior days in December, January, and February.

• Cale Millen of Snoqualmie (Wash.) kicks things off by committing to Northwestern, while Cole Kramer of Eden Prairie (Minnesota) pledges to Minnesota. Ty Evans of Monument (Colorado) stays in-state and verbals to Colorado. None had many major offers, so this doesn’t look to shake up the QB recruiting scene much.
• In a move that everyone saw coming, Bo Nix (12) of Pinson (Alabama) commits to Auburn. Nix is the son of Patrick Nix, who played for Auburn from 1992-95. He is one of the better QBs in the class.
• At the end of February, Iowa State picks up Easton Dean of Altamonte (Kan.), and Lance LeGendre of New Orleans pledges to Kansas. Legendre is one to watch, as major programs are intrigued by his film.

Only 15 of the 65 Power 5 programs have verbal commitments from quarterbacks at this point. This is a lot fewer than the 27 committed at the end of February in 2017.

Spring 2018: the dominoes fall

• Spring starts with a bang, as Michigan flips Reno (Nevada) QB Cade McNamra (11) from Notre Dame. He also claims offers from Georgia, Alabama, and USC. Those schools are still without QBs, though it’s not clear all will take one.
• Florida takes a commitment from Jalon Jones of Baltimore, a 6’4 athlete who posted a Nike Rating of 104, which is elite for any position, much less a QB. Dan Mullen recruited him heavily while at Mississippi State.
• Florida State takes Sam Howell (10)of Monroe (North Carolina) over Taisun Phommachanh (10) of Bridgeport (Connecticut). Both were high on FSU’s board, and the Seminoles would have liked to sign the duo, but weren’t going to take Phommachanh before Howell made his decision. Phommachanh commits to Clemson the next week. Howell was a major target for Tennessee and North Carolina, who are still searching.
• Alabama lands Paul Tyson (8) of Trussville (Ala.), the great grandson of legendary Alabama coach Bear Bryant. He is considered a major prospect, but doesn’t set off any dominoes, because nobody expected him to go anywhere else.
• The Mississippi schools get into the action as Garrett Shrader of Charlotte commits to Mississippi State, and Grant Tisdale (7) of Allen (Texas) commits to Ole Miss. Shrader is an intriguing target whom schools want to see throw over the summer, as the competition in his high school games is suspect.
• Ryan Hilinski (5) of Orange (California) commits to South Carolina. Hilinski was a target of Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M to varying levels.
• Max Duggan (5), of Council Bluffs (Iowa) has committed to TCU. Steve Lubischer, of Red Bank (N.J.) has committed to Boston College.

What’s next?

There are more programs in need of quarterbacks than there are good quarterbacks. While more will emerge over the summer and in the fall, here are some of the top QBs left, and where they might be going.

• Houston QB Grant Gunnell is high on Ohio State, Oregon, Oklahoma State, and Cal. Oregon really intrigues Gunnell, as it shifts to a slightly more “pro-style” offense.
• Jayden Daniels of San Bernadino (Calif.) is high on Utah, Oregon, Cal, Florida State, and USC. Will he consider FSU as a second QB, or will he stick out West? Daniels told me in April that distance would be a factor.
• If Michael Johnson Jr. of Eugene (Oregon) was going to go to Oregon, where his dad coaches, I’d think it would already be done, so he could start recruiting publicly for the Ducks. My hunch is that he ends up with Mark Richt’s Hurricanes.
• Murrieta (Calif.)’s Hank Bachmeier is rated as the No. 8 QB in the nation, but the schools he is most often linked to, like Cal, Boise State, and Oregon State, aren’t the types which typically sign top-10 QBs. We’ll see if the bigger schools come calling, and how long Bachmeier wants to wait. Sometimes, a QB has to work out at a summer camp before a school will pull the trigger on an offer.
• Will Taulia Tagovailoa of Alabaster (Ala.) (formerly Hawaii) sign with the Crimson Tide and play with his brother? Tagovailoa is not seen as the same level of prospect as Tua was, but with his level of competitiveness, I’d still bet on him competing for the Tide job.
• Then there’s David Baldwin, the QB at IMG Academy in Bradenton (Florida), by way of California. A key factor will be whether he wants to be the only QB in a class. And will he want to head back west for college?
• I’m also watching the flips. Wisconsin’s Mertz, Kansas’ LeGendre, and South Carolina’s Hilinski are all prospects I’ll be keeping an eye on.

I’ll update this weekly.

As of yet, there aren’t that many dominoes which have impacted other schools, but that could certainly change. Other QBs will also likely see their ratings rise during the summer camp season.

And there are some programs, like Georgia, who might elect to sit out the 2019 QB recruiting cycle and instead pursue elect for a preferred walk-on.