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If Michigan wants to sign a great class, actually winning big games would be a good start.
I love getting intriguing questions from readers, like the one I received Wednesday.
Michael: What has happened to Michigan’s recruiting? Haven’t landed a top-100 verbal since Chris Hinton last August. Penn State has seven top-100 verbals since then. Did the 2017 season just kill UM’s recruiting? Staff changes hurt? Something going on with (Jim) Harbaugh? Something else?
I hadn’t realized here had not been a top-100 verbal to Michigan since August. But Michael is right. Michigan did not sign a top-100 prospect in the class of 2018, and the 2019 class hasn’t has a top-200 player commit this calendar year.
And all of the things Michael listed are contributing factors.
I’ve often discussed the need to turn “new coach smell” into victories, because the hope of newness just doesn’t last. At some point, recruits need to see proof of concept. And from that standpoint, Michigan’s 2017 season was poorly timed. The Wolverines went 8-5, but it was a hollow 8-5. Michigan lost to every good team it played.
- Wins: Florida, Cincinnati, Air Force, at Purdue, at Indiana, Rutgers, Minnesota, Maryland.
- Losses: Michigan State, at Penn State, at Wisconsin, Ohio State, South Carolina.
Michigan fans would argue, correctly, that Harbaugh’s teams have been better than their record so far in Ann Arbor, according to the advanced metrics.
But recruits don’t care about S&P+ or FPI or analytics.
They see the more obvious things. And for this reason, recruiting against Michigan right now is pretty easy: Harbaugh has never won the Big Ten East. He’s never even finished second. He has two ties for third and, most recently, a fourth-place finish.
His offense has been a disappointment. Michigan’s finishes in yards per game so far under Harbaugh are 105th, 58th, and 69th.
But this doesn’t mean Harbaugh’s tenure at Michigan is doomed.
Michigan people will also say that 2017 was fully expected to be a down season. While Harbaugh benefitted greatly in his first two years from some strong Brady Hoke recruiting, Hoke’s recruiting failures in the 2014-15 classes came home to roost in 2017 after a ton of talent left the 2016 squad for the NFL.
An honest assessment of the 2018 roster reveals a deep, talented team primed for a bounce-back. Almost all of the players on this roster were recruited by Harbaugh. It’s go time. If Michigan can go 9-3 or 10-2 in the regular season and win its bowl game, then Harbaugh’s 2017 really will look like a blip compared to 10-win seasons in 2015, 2016, and 2018.
Beating the teams on the field against whom Michigan recruits would really help.
Penn State’s recruiting is on a big roll. Ohio State might sign the No. 1 class in the nation. Wisconsin is putting together its best recruiting class in recent memory.
Harbaugh is 0-3 against Ohio State, 1-2 against Michigan State, 2-1 against Penn State, and 1-1 against Wisconsin. All four are on the schedule this season, as is Notre Dame.
Winning a conference title wouldn’t hurt either. Harbaugh finished second in the Pac-10 twice at Stanford, but has never won an FBS conference.
And if that happens, expect a big boost in recruiting.
Michigan’s 2019 class is already good. As of this writing, it is eighth nationally and No. 1 in the Big Ten.
With a big season, the Wolverines could easily add players like No. 8 defensive tackle Mazi Smith, No. 20 OT William Harrod, No. 14 DT Rodas Johnson, and No. 39 CB D.J. Turner II.
Other recruits also likely need to be convinced that Michigan is moving in the right direction.
If Michigan doesn’t put it together on the field this year, however, things could get stagnant in Ann Arbor.
All recruiting rankings via the 247Sports composite unless otherwise noted.