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Meanwhile, bettors disagree with Vegas on bowl chances for Cal, UCLA, and Wake Forest.
On Monday, the South Point Casino released its regular-season win total odds for almost all college football teams. While the limits are low ($1,000 for Power 5 teams and $500 for Group of 5 schools), these are still fun to look at.
And because the limits are so low, the books are quick to move the odds around upon receiving feedback from savvy gamblers in the form of max wagers.
Already, 11 Power 5 schools have had their odds change by a half win. (H/t to Brad Powers in Vegas for passing along the updated movers.)
Up
- California: From 5.5 to 6
- Colorado: From 4 to 4.5
- Maryland: From 4.5 to 5
- UCLA: From 5 to 5.5
- Vanderbilt: From 4 to 4.5
- Wake Forest: From 6 to 6.5
Down
- Arizona State: From 5 to 4.5
- Kansas: From 3 to 2.5
- Miami: From 10 to 9.5
- Notre Dame: From 9.5 to 9
- Pittsburgh: From 5.5 to 5
Also, Cincinnati and Georgia Southern moved a full win!
Cincinnati moved from 4 to 5. Georgia Southern moved from 6.5 to 5.5. These two G5 schools are the only programs to move a full win.
Eight of these 11 Power 5 lines have been within two wins of bowl eligibility
This makes sense when considering that teams who are projected for between four and eight wins have the most toss-up type games, which allow for the greatest variance in opinion. There is often money to be made by determining which teams are merely below average as opposed to bad.
Teams projected to win more than nine or fewer than three games are going to be huge favorites/underdogs in a majority of their games, which doesn’t leave a ton of wiggle room.
It is interesting that of the lines which rose, none rose higher than Wake Forest going to 6.5. From this perspective, it doesn’t seem that the South Point Casino has missed on any obvious conference contenders.
Miami going from 10 to 9.5 isn’t necessarily a slight on the Hurricanes. Rather, it could be a reflection that Miami is going to be less than a double-digit favorite in probably four or five of its games, making three losses more likely than one.
Notre Dame will be an underdog or a single-digit favorite in five or six of its games, which would make going 10-2 a difficult task.
As I discussed with Bill Connelly in our post anticipating the lines, Pittsburgh plays a brutal schedule in 2018. Making a bowl is going to be a challenge.
And poor Kansas. The Jayhawks just fired their athletics director and are expected to be in the two- or three-win zone again.