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Let’s pick out some wagers for an exciting Week 1 of college football.
All wagers at -110 odds and for 1 unit unless otherwise noted. My picks are in bold, with that team’s spread attached. All odds listed below are current as of Thursday, when this column was filed. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.
Season record: None yet
Welcome to my gambling column. Or, if you followed me over the summer for futures and props, welcome back. Hopefully I’ll pick some winners in addition to opining on various gambling topics.
I am a bit of a volume bettor in this space, playing small edges at advantage prices. But in Week 1, I find the numbers to be very tight because they have been out for six weeks at most places. That means anyone in Vegas, or with an internet connection for that matter, can hammer away at them. For instance, sharp players grabbed FSU at -5 and over in the Louisville game at 53. Those lines have moved past key numbers, reducing their attractiveness. As a result, I have fewer than usual plays in Week 1.
One area in which I will look to take advantage of offseason changes is with game pace. It’s hard to project changes in efficiency with a new coach for Week 1, but not as hard to project tempo. We know what the new coach wants to run in terms of pace, but not necessarily how good he will be at doing so. With that in mind, I will almost certainly be on the Over for UCLA, FSU, Kent State, Nebraska, and Arkansas in the first month, as their new offenses are likely to snap the ball more quickly. And I’ll be looking to take the under in Arizona State and Texas A&M games.
In my own personal life, I have already moved on to Week 2’s projected lines.
Thursday
No play, but a note: I was all set to bet on Minnesota if it had been 17 or less, which it was at several shops, until New Mexico State got dominated by Wyoming. This is a short turnaround road game for a team without much talent. But the line is now 21.5 at most books, and that is simply too much of an overreaction for my taste.
Saturday
1. Michigan at Notre Dame +1: Both teams have recruited extremely well. Both teams bring back elite defenses. And both have questions on offense. So why is one a road favorite in a hostile environment? If you’re into the public/sharp idea, public bettors are all over Michigan this season.
2. Louisville +25 vs. Alabama (in Orlando): Alabama is absolutely loaded. But the Tide are green in the secondary. And Bobby Petrino is an excellent offensive coach with a loaded group of receivers. I think this line should be 20 or so, even accounting for what I anticipate to be a pro-Alabama crowd in Orlando.
3. West Virginia vs. Tennessee +10 (-105) (in Charlotte): I made WVU a 5-point favorite, not 10. Tennessee was a disaster last year, and I bet against the Vols getting to 7 wins (see below), but they still have some good personnel pieces.
4. Coastal Carolina +29.5 (-105) at South Carolina: The Gamecocks were extremely lucky last season (6-1 in single-score games). This is an opportunity to bet against an inflated reputation from 2017. And South Carolina has a lookahead situation, with Georgia coming to town next week.
5. Army at Duke -12.5: My numbers had Duke as a 17-point favorite. And that was before any adjustment is made for the Blue Devils having extra time to prep for the triple option, by virtue of this being the first game of the season.
6. Akron at Nebraska (Over 54): Nebraska will be running the fast-paced Scott Frost attack. Yet Nebraska’a defense is not that good. I will likely bet over on Nebraska for the first three or four games.
7. UTSA at Arizona State (Under 54): UTSA operates at a slow pace. I expect Arizona State to become slower under new coach Herm Edwards, who has an NFL defensive background. UTSA also operates at a slow tempo.
8.Navy -10 at Hawaii: This is betting against the overreaction to Hawaii’s offense from Week 1. I am of the opinion that while Hawaii’s offense is likely improved, Colorado State’s defense might be really bad. Navy is a different animal than the Rams.
9. Syracuse at Western Michigan +6: This is a play simply based on the metrics. S&P+, FEI, and FPI all see this as a pick’em. Part of that could be because Syracuse’s rating is impacted due to numerous injuries suffered last season, but I’ll take a stab.
10.NIU +10.5 at Iowa: NIU has a stingy defense. Iowa has a look-ahead game to Iowa State on deck. And the Hawkeyes have multiple starters suspended.
11. Kent State at Illinois (Over 55): Another play based simply on the tempo change at Kent State. I also expect the Illini to be more competent on offense this season.
12. Marshall at Miami (OH) (Under 51.5): Neither offense is all that good. But by G5 standards, both defenses should be decent. Plus, intent matters with totals. And last year, the teams operated at an average adjusted pace of -1.65, which projects as the 8th slowest game of the weekend by adjusted pace.
13. Eastern Illinois at Arkansas (Over 58.5 -120): Arkansas is drastically increasing its tempo under new coach Chad Morris. And Eastern Illinois runs the air raid. Note: Not all books offer FBS vs. FCS lines, but 5dimes and others do. Shop around.
Monday
14. Virginia Tech at Florida State Over 55.5 points: FSU lost its best safety in Derwin James, its best linebacker in Matthew Thomas, and its best defensive lineman in Derrick Nnadi. Now it is switching offenses from one that was 127th in adjusted tempo to one that was 8th at Oregon. I also project improvement from the Virginia Tech offense.
Ongoing Futures/Props
I made 26 futures or prop bets which I published between May and August. My reasoning for making them can be found at the link.
Wins
None yet, it’s Week 1!
Losses
None, yet. It’s Week 1!
Open
- Washington national championship (+2400)
- Washington Over 8.5 wins (-200)
- Michigan State Over 7.5 wins (-155)
- Stanford Under 9.5 wins (-170)
- Tennessee Under 6.5 wins (-160)
- Virginia Over 5 wins (-110)
- Boston College Over 5.5 wins (-110)
- Oregon Over 8.5 (-120)
- Northwestern Under 6 (+100)
- Florida State Over 7.5 wins (-110)
- UCLA Under 5.5 wins (-115)
- Washington State Under 6.5 wins (-110)
- Pittsburgh Under 5.5 wins (+100)
- Virginia Tech Under 8.5 wins (-110)
- Boston College +1.5 at Wake Forest (Game of year futures line)
- Florida at Mississippi State -3 (Game of year futures line)
- Alabama at Ole Miss +22.5 (Game of year futures line)
- Wisconsin at Michigan -3 (Game of year futures line)
- N.C. State +19.5 at Clemson (Game of year futures line)
- USC to win the Pac-12 (+485)
- NC State to win ACC (+6000)
- Georgia Tech to win ACC (+6000)
- Clemson to make the Playoff (-130)
- Alabama to not make the Playoff (+280)
- Oklahoma to make the Playoff (+425)
- Notre Dame to make the Playoff (+600)