The early betting lines often allow for the most value.

All wagers at -110 odds and for 1 unit unless otherwise noted. My picks are in bold, with that team’s spread attached. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.

Season record ATS: 99-80 (55.3%) (+$1085)

Last week I went 16-12. If I can do that every week I’ll quit sports writing and move to Vegas.

I often tell readers that the best bets can be found in the opening lines on Sunday afternoons. Lines tend to be sharper after they’ve been bet all week. Most of my plays are made early in the week. Note that some of the lines below have since changed.

Of course, if you’re trying to bet thousands of dollars on each game, the low limits (typically $250-500 max bets per game) early in the week can be a hindrance, but I’m figuring most of my readership is playing $100 per game or less.

Because I make these wagers throughout the week, I order them by when they were made.

Picks made Sunday, October 21

• Troy at South Alabama +11 (-105) (Tuesday game): On a weird Tuesday night game in which there is minimal travel involved, I figured the line would come out between seven and ten. But 11 at reduced juice is too much to pass up with Troy’s starting QB out.
• Toledo at Western Michigan +1.5 (-115) (Thursday game): Western Michigan should be favored here. The Broncos have been improving down the stretch.
• Appalachian State at Georgia Southern +12 (Thursday game): App State has basically been an ATM this year, but Georgia Southern is a legitimate team and I’ll take the points at home in a game in which the Eagles look to control pace.
• Miami at Boston College +4 (Friday game): The Eagles can run the football. BC’s defense is sketchy, but so is Miami’s offense.
• Wyoming at Colorado State +3.5 (Friday game): Wyoming cannot score. It should not be laying points on the road.
• Clemson -14 at Florida State: I do not believe FSU can block Clemson. And the Tigers are by far the best team FSU has played. If you power rate Clemson with a healthy Trevor Lawrence, you’ll probably have the Tigers by three touchdowns.
• Oregon State +24 at Colorado: This is just a ton of points for a Colorado offense which struggles to score. Oregon State should be able to run the ball some.
• Hawaii at Fresno State -21.5: Fresno is a rare favorite I played this week. Hawaii’s offense is going to be in for a rude awakening against the Fresno defense.
• Arkansas State at ULL +5: Again taking points at home. In my opinion, this line should be under a field goal. ULL’s commitment to the run game should help.
• Iowa +8.5 at Penn State: Apparently the public has not figured out that Iowa is a damn good football team. Its defense is disciplined, and its offense is opportunistic.
• UNLV at San Jose State +5: San Jose State is improving and should be no worse than a field goal dog at home.
• Southern Miss at Charlotte +8.5: Not that Charlotte has some amazing home-field advantage, but why is Southern Miss laying over a touchdown? The Golden Eagles are also in the bottom quarter of CFB teams by almost any advanced metric.
• TCU at Kansas +14: TCU’s offense is not good. Kansas is not good. But can TCU get enough stops for its offense to win by more than two touchdowns on the road?
• NIU +8 at BYU: These are two physical teams and I’ll gladly take the points in what should be a close one.
• Illinois +17.5 at Maryland: I do not trust Maryland’s offense to put up a ton of points. I also said this two weeks ago when the Terps embarrassed Rutgers.

Ongoing Futures/Props

I made 26 futures or prop bets which I published between May and August. My reasoning for making them can be found at the link. Updated analysis to come later in the week.

GOY lines (ATS)

The five games I played against the spread in the preseason ended up as advantage bets, but I went just 2-3 ($-130). I beat the closing line by 7.5, 4, 7, and 2, while I had one game which was off by 0.5. On average, the wagers I placed beat the closing line by four points, which was also what the median was. Though I lost on these wagers, I would absolutely place them again knowing what I know about where the closing lines ended up. These ATS games are included in my overall ATS record, above.

Season win totals

I currently project to come out ahead on my season win totals bets, with a projected ROI of 35 percent.

I project my winners as Washington, Tennessee, Virginia, Boston College, UCLA, Pitt, Virginia Tech.

Sure losers look to be Florida State and Washington State. And Northwestern, Michigan State, and Oregon look too close to call.

Conference title bets

I took thee long(ish) shots here, and likely messed up by not hedging N.C. State and Georgia Tech both at at +6000 to win the ACC several weeks ago. USC at +485 to win the Pac-12 is on life support.

Playoff wagers

I placed four wagers on teams to make of miss the playoff. Alabama to miss the playoff looks like a sure loser, while Clemson to make looks very strong.

But it is my two longer shots which have me excited. Oklahoma at +425 and Notre Dame at +600 are both considerably ahead of their probabilities based on the ESPN Playoff Predictor. Getting one team in would be great. Two in would be a huge season of futures.

National Championship wagers

I took a stab with Washington at +2400, hoping to hedge. But the Huskies now have two losses, and the wager is deader than dead.