The early betting lines often allow for the most value.
All wagers at -110 odds and for 1 unit unless otherwise noted. My picks are in bold, with that team’s spread attached. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.
Season record ATS: 124-98 (55.9%)
Last week I went 9-12. Losing weeks are no fun. But my season overall is still going great.
I often tell readers that the best bets can be found in the opening lines on Sunday afternoons. Lines tend to be sharper after they’ve been bet all week. Most of my plays are made early in the week. Note that some of the lines below have since changed.
Of course, if you’re trying to bet thousands of dollars on each game, the low limits (typically $250-500 max bets per game) early in the week can be a hindrance, but I’m figuring most of my readership is playing $100 per game or less. Bet Online and Bookmaker usually have the first odds up, around 3:30 each Sunday.
Because I make these wagers throughout the week, I order them by when they were made.
Picks made Monday, November 5
- Washington State -4.5 at Colorado: I trust Washington State’s defense to get enough stops to give Gardener Minshew the chance to build a multi-score win.
- North Texas -14 at Old Dominion: North Texas can score in a way that I just don’t think Old Dominion can.
Picks made Sunday, November 4
- Fresno State -1 (-115) at Boise State (Friday game): Boise did not look good in its win over BYU. Fresno keeps rolling.
- Louisville +21.5 at Syracuse (Friday game): There has to be a price for every team. Maybe Louisville has simply quit on the season and will get blown out. But this is such a big number.
- Florida State at Notre Dame -16: I thought this line would be in the 18-21 range, so I’d take anything below the key number of 17. I would want more than three touchdowns to take FSU. The weather should also be awful for FSU.
- Western Kentucky at FAU -16.5: The Owls hit their stride last week, and Western Kentucky is a mess.
- LSU at Arkansas +16.5: Talk about a potential hangover game for LSU. The Tigers are coming off an embarrassing performance, and Arkansas is off a bye.
- Illinois +20.5 at Nebraska: Illinois’ offense actually isn’t that bad when it has faced poor defenses, like that of Nebraska.
- Charlotte at Marshall -14 (-105): I backed Charlotte last week against Tennessee in a flat spot for the Volunteers, but think Marshall will simply score too much in this one.
- South Florida at Cincinnati -7 (-105) I watched Tulane play South Florida. USF is a mess. I’d lay 10 here, but not two touchdowns.
- Liberty +24.5 at Virginia: Virginia is just not a team that blows people out regularly. And this could be a flat spot in the middle of the ACC season.
- BYU at Massachusetts +13.5: BYU is off a crushing loss to Boise, and now must travel cross country.
- Kentucky -3 (-105) at Tennessee: Tennessee’s offense is putrid. Kentucky should shut it down.
- Mississippi +13 at Texas A&M: A&M’s offense has been suspect lately, and its secondary struggled against Auburn.
- Virginia Tech +4 at Pitt: Pitt has been on a tear lately, but I do not trust the Panthers to lay points.