This week the goal is to avoid bad beats like Steve Spurrier inexplicably going for (and getting) a touchdown on fourth down when he needs two scores and should have kicked a field goal, thus killing my LSU -2.5 wager. Ditto North Carolina failing to cover -7 due to missed field goals and interceptions in the red zone after driving up and down the field on Miami.
Thursday
Oregon -8 at Arizona State: I trust this Oregon team. I trust Chip Kelly. I trust the Ducks defense. I don't think Arizona State is a bad football team by any stretch of the imagination, and have wagered on them several times this season, but I believe Oregon is in another class here.
Saturday
South Carolina at Florida -3: This line implies that South Carolina is a better team than Florida on a neutral field (the logic being that The Swamp is worth roughly 3.5-4 points in the line). I don't believe that to be the case. I think Florida is the better team, though not by much. Playing back-to-back games at Death Valley and at Florida is not easy. UF should have most of its players back from the Vanderbilt game. There's some concern that Marcus Lattimore is banged up, but more importantly, South Carolina has not been a great road team of late. I like the Gators by a touchdown.
LSU at Texas A&M +4: I'm taking the Aggies based on a lack of confidence in LSU's offense on the road, the perception that A&M's defense is awful (it's not), and A&M's ability to protect the passer. I am not confident that LSU can keep A&M honest enough with the pass to prevent the Aggies from ganging up against the run. A&M has a very good offensive tackle pair and it should do better than most against LSU's pass rush.
Kansas State at West Virginia -2.5 & Under 73.5: This line is an overreaction to the debacle in Lubbock last weekend by the Mountaineers. This really is a battle of underrated teams, but getting West Virginia at less than a field goal here is too good to pass up. Kansas State will look to slow the game down and keep West Virginia off the field.
Michigan State at Michigan Under 43.5: Everyone knows that the Spartans' defense is excellent. This is a wager in favor of a Wolverines' defense that has slowly regained its composure after the Alabama game, and is certainly one of the best 30 defenses in the country. The Spartans seem to play Denard Robinson well. Plus, Michigan State's offense. Woof.
BYU at Notre Dame Under 41: I strongly considered taking Notre Dame here, but laying two touchdowns with the Irish offense is just not a recipe for success. Instead, I'll play on the under and take advantage of BYU's defense, which is much better than it showed last weekend against Oregon State's backup quarterback and the Beavers' trick plays.
UNC -10 at Duke: As I mentioned in the open, North Carolina thoroughly outplayed Miami and failed to cover. The Tar Heels do have N.C. State on deck, so there is some concern for a lookahead, but motivational question marks also exist for the Blue Devils, as they come off a blowout loss at Virginia Tech that took the wind out of their sails.
Cincinnati at Toledo +7.5 & Under 64.5: Cincinnati is well rested after playing Fordham last week, but they have not had a road game yet this year. Where is the motivation to get up and play Toledo? Plus, Louisville is on deck. Also, I don't believe these two offenses are as good as some do.
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