COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMBLING: The 2014 Big 12's best bets

Welcome back to our weekly college football gambling column. It's called COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMBLING. Today, let's talk about the second of five power conferences: the Big 12.

The Big 12 is an extremely frustrating league to handicap in the preseason.

And there is one reason: the Texas Longhorns. Texas recruits better than every team in the Big 12, but it has underachieved in recent years. Everyone thinks that Charlie Strong will turn around the Longhorns, given what he did with far less resources at Louisville, but there's no guarantee that it will happen immediately. Adding to the uncertainty is the huge swath Strong has cut through the Texas roster via suspensions and dismissals. It's hard to know exactly who will be playing where for Texas.

And with so many teams in this conference in the top-20 to -40 level overall, the quality of Texas matters very much. A good Texas team means extra losses for the teams not named Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Kansas. A bad team means a few extra wins.

Given the conviction one needs to place a season-long wager on a team (your money is tied up for the entire season!), the Texas quandary has me a bit gun-shy when it comes to some of the Big 12 schools.

Oh, and Oklahoma State replaces more lettermen than any other power-conference team, which would normally be a reason to write them off, but coach Mike Gundy has frequently overseen successful rebuilding years.

Conference wagers

I considered taking a shot at Kansas State at +1300 to win the conference, but I just don't see enough value there. Compare that to the shots I took in the ACC Coastal Division, Duke at +1500 and Pitt at +2500. The difference in value should be obvious: there's no beastly Oklahoma in the ACC Coastal, and the value is higher on the individual bet.

Season win totals

Win total wagers are based solely on the regular season. No championship games, bowl games, or Playoff games. If I don't mention a team, it means that I feel Vegas has the number pegged relatively well or I don't have a great feel for the team. If you want to discuss other teams, let's do so in the comment section.

Oklahoma Over 10.5 Wins (+100, Sportsbook): I love Oklahoma's front seven. It's deep and talented, and the Sooners will do a better job this year stopping the run than in previous seasons. The secondary had heavy personnel losses, but Mike Stoops can get that unit in top form. Oklahoma has recruited blue-chip prospects at a 42 percent clip over the last four classes, and that's far better than the next best Big 12 school (Oklahoma State, 14 percent). I do have questions about Oklahoma's skill-position players, but I like the offensive line.

OU is a fantastic home team under Bob Stoops, and all of its toughest games are at home.

Baylor Over 9 Wins (-145, Olympic): Baylor is a pretty extreme home/road split type team under Art Briles, going 19-1 at home, but just 5-8 on the road in the last three seasons. I don't know if it has something to do with how the team prepares or travels for road games, but that difference is stark.

Luckily, the road games this year are fairly manageable, with the exception of Oklahoma. Baylor will be favored at Bufffalo, Iowa State, Texas (most likely), and West Virginia. They catch breaks with TCU and Oklahoma State being at home, and they don't face a hint of an elite passing attack until perhaps November, which is good news for a team breaking in a new secondary.

West Virginia Under 4.5 Wins (-110, Bovada): I don't trust Dana Holgorsen as a head coach. His teams often look unprepared. And I don't really expect a whole lot of improvement from the offense, considering its talent level. The defensive backs and linebackers should be pretty good, but losing nose Will Clarke hurts (17 tackles for loss!).

The way the schedule breaks is also rough. The Mountaineers are hosting Oklahoma, Baylor, and Kansas State, and they project as sizable underdogs in all three. If they instead could take those losses on the road, and have teams like Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Texas at home, I probably wouldn't be on this wager. West Virginia is a clear underdog in six conference games, plus it draws Alabama in the non-confernece. I'll also look to bet "under" on the point total in WVU games.

Kansas State Over 7.5 (-130, Bovada): The Wildcats have Jake Waters, Tyler Lockett, and an improved defensive line. They also have a tough schedule. To win this bet, KSU will likely need to be perfect against SFA, at Iowa State, UTEP, Texas Tech, at West Virginia, and Kansas. Then they'll need to pull two upsets against Auburn, at Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State, at TCU, and at Baylor. I think they'll do just that and win eight or nine.

Texas Tech Under 6.5 (+135, Sportsbook): Texas Tech has to replace a lot on defense, including four secondary starters, and its top two pass catchers on offense. Road games at Oklahoma State, Kansas State, TCU, and Iowa State (on November 22) aren't easy. Texas may have its act together by November 1 when it rolls into Lubbock, and then Oklahoma comes in the next week.