The Crootletter breaks down college football with a recruiting slant.

Tuesday, news broke that former five-star recruit Byron Cowart is leaving the Auburn program.

Cowart, out of Seffner (Fla.) Armwood, was an incredible physical specimen in high school. He looked like he was a decade older than some of his high school teammates. And while he always seemed to physically look better than he played, he was still a really good player and coveted by all of the major programs in the Southeast. Cowart ultimately picked Auburn over Florida, with the word being that Will Muschamp, then the defensive coordinator at Auburn, formerly the head coach of Florida, being the deciding relationship factor.

I’m not sure why Cowart did not work out at Auburn, but he was never able to make an impact, though injuries and coaching changes likely played a factor. He was pleasant to deal with on the recruiting trail, and I wish him well. Perhaps a change of scenery will help.

Auburn’s defensive line remains nasty as ever.

Penn State has momentum

Recruiting in September has been extremely slow. With few recruits traditionally taking big visits in this time, and three of the four most talented recruiting states (Florida, Texas, and Georgia) being significantly impacted by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, it has slowed down even more. Only three four-star prospects have committed this month.

But things are looking pretty good for Penn State, both on the field and off. PSU site Black Shoe Diaries profiles how the Nittany Lions could be in great shape to beat out Ohio State for two defensive linemen: five-star Micah Parsons, a former PSU commit, and four-star Tyreke Smith.

The last time Penn State beat out Ohio State for an Ohio kid? A very long time. If Smith does spurn Urban Meyer for James Franklin, it would unequivocally be Franklin’s most impressive recruiting victory, bar none. Going into Ohio and taking a top-three prospect in the state — that’s recruiting at an elite level.

Smith will take his time, though. He’s set up a ridiculous visit schedule for this fall — seeing USC this past weekend, Alabama in October, Penn State for the Michigan game (unofficial visit), Ohio State for the Penn State game, Oregon in late November, and then back to Happy Valley for his final official visit on Dec. 8.

Penn State currently has the No. 3 class in the country on the 247Sports Composite, with 23 commitments and 13 four- or five-star prospects. The Nittany Lions are the team that has improved its talent the most over the last four recruiting classes, per my Blue-Chip Ratio measure.

Recruiting failures lead to on-field failures

Arkansas site Arkansas Fight does a great job of breaking down how Arkansas’ failures in recruiting have contributed to the Hogs not having the tough, dominant group that is usually associated with teams coaches by Brett Bielema. Arkansas’ offensive line was nothing special last year and doesn’t look great this year, either.

A true freshman could be the answer to Alabama’s No. 2 receiver question

In this week’s Numerical, Bill Connelly lays out some wild stats about how often Calvin Ridley is targeted by Jalen Hurts compared to his other teammates. Ridley has 23 targets, No. 2 receiver Robert Foster has just six. Now, I would argue that part of the reason for this is that Hurts seems to look at his primary target, perhaps a checkdown to a back, and then take off. He’s a much better runner than he is a passer, and that is good enough to beat almost every team Alabama will face.

But if Foster really is not the answer at No. 2, I think true freshman Jerry Jeudy could be. Jeudy is not the freakiest of athletes, but he is an advanced route runner with reliable hands. It would not surprise me to see him get more work as the season wears on.

Dan Mullen is a really good coach

This is an excellent breakdown from Bill Connelly on the Mississippi State beatdown of LSU. Mississippi State played to the strengths of true freshman tackle Stewart Reese. I saw Reese several times as a recruit. He is huge, but not super nimble. The Bulldogs put him in a lot of situations where he could use his size, and minimized the times he needed to block LSU’s fierce edge rushers in space.

Despite its use of a freshman tackle, Mississippi State is quite veteran. The Bulldogs under Mullen occasionally time it right and end up with a super experienced team. When you don’t produce a lot of NFL talent, you don’t lose many players early to the draft. I wrote about this in 2014.

Quickly

• Three things I learned from the weekend in college football, including Clemson vs. Louisville and Tennessee vs. Florida.
• Spencer Hall had a good review of the Kentucky win at South Carolina. Kentucky absolutely knows who it is as a team, and plays within itself.
• This, also by Hall, is an interesting look at the NFL.

The value in that kind of behavior doesn’t come from the product. That flatlined in terms of utility a long, long time ago. (The Patriots remain unusual for not only trying, but trying intelligently to produce a good product.) An NFL owner no longer needs that to continue to boost the value of the franchise using anything that happens on the field. Value comes from getting a new stadium someone else paid for, moving the franchise to a more valuable piece of real estate and doubling the value of the franchise overnight. Value comes from leveraging and re-leveraging your existing assets, not by creating anything new.

I don’t know if I agree that this is the main cause, because there are multiple causes for declining NFL ratings. But it is certainly a cause.

• I thought this was a neat way to handle this situation by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

• Thoughts and prayers to Terrace Marshall Jr, a five-star receiver recruit and one of my favorites in the class after his leg injury.

Some of the SEC’s head coaches might survive the hot seat in 2017, but things aren’t smooth sailing.

The SB Nation College Football Recruiting Podcast returns with another episode. You can subscribe to the show on on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) or Google Play Music.

The show rundown is as follows. A direct link to listen can be found here.

There is not much going on in recruiting right now. Why?

September is always slow, plus Hurricanes Irma and Harvey impacted three of the four most talented states, cancelling high school and college games, and eliminating visit opportunities.

Could half of the SEC head coaching jobs change coaches in the next two years?

Things are going badly at Missouri and Texas A&M.

The natives are restless in Auburn, Arkansas, and Tennessee.

How short will Ed Orgeron’s leash be at LSU if things continue go south? Are Florida fans truly satisfied with Jim McElwain? Ole Miss has an interim coach. Derek Mason and Dan Mullen are always candidates to be poached away.

Nebraska is 1-2 for the second time under Mike Riley.

This happened once in the previous 54 seasons. How does a program that is recruiting really well this year convince kids to stay the course? Do you tell the kids “Hey we will suck this year, keep the faith”? The staff had to know in some respects, right? What analogues can we use for this?

Alabama is not sacking the QB and now has some linebacker injuries.

Should Alabama fans be concerned? Does any of this matter?

Betting lines

• Alabama -19 at Vanderbilt: Is Vegas just not buying Vanderbilt at all?
• TCU at Oklahoma State -11: Can TCU score with the Cowboys?
• Arkansas at Texas A&M -3 (Dallas): The pink slip bowl?
• Mississippi State at Georgia -5: Is Georgia’s defense good enough to stop Mississippi State? If not, can Jake Fromm put up points with Georgia’s offense?
• Florida -3 at Kentucky: No idea.

Let’s pick out some wagers for a deep Week 4 of college football.

All wagers at -110 odds unless otherwise noted. My picks are in bold, with that team’s spread attached. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.

Season record: 15-21.

I had a disastrous, 5-11 Week 2 that included a 1-5 record in wagers decided by a single score, and a push on Iowa State, despite the Cyclones taking Iowa to overtime. If you take an underdog and the games goes to overtime, you’re likely going to lose, but you likely had the right side.

I took Week 3 off after Hurricane Irma, since I did not have power. I wish I could have posted a column, since I had a nice personal week with Southern Miss, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma State, Florida, and Mississippi State. Thoughts and prayers to those impacted by Harvey, Irma, and Maria. It’s been a rough few weeks for the southeastern United States.

There are some dangerous road tests this week, with 13 ranked teams leaving home, many who will be favored by less than three scores. Somebody will get upset.

Thursday

1. Temple at USF -19: The Bulls’ offense is high-powered, and Temple’s offense really struggles to score. I don’t think the Owls can keep up. There is no look-ahead spot here, as USF plays East Carolina next week.

Friday

2. Utah at Arizona +3.5: Arizona at home in the underdog role is a friendly situation. The Wildcats should score enough to threaten with an upset.

Saturday

3. TCU at Oklahoma State Under 71.5: I considered taking Oklahoma State and laying the 11 points here, but the better play in my opinion is to take the under. TCU’s defense is salty, and after watching the Arkansas game, it seems clear that Gary Patterson does not trust QB Kenny Hill to throw the ball down the field.

4. Mississippi State at Georgia -4.5: Notre Dame ran for 937 combined yards on Temple and Boston College. But against Georgia, the Irish were held to just 55 yards. Mississippi State is not a team that can throw as well without the threat of play-action. The time to bet Mississippi State was Week 3 in Starkville.

5. West Virginia -21 at Kansas: West Virginia does not have a lookahead situation, with a bye week on deck. I expect the Mountaineers to hit some more big plays through the air.

6. Alabama -18.5 at Vanderbilt: Alabama laying less than three touchdowns, in a road environment that's not exactly intimidating, against a putrid offense? Seems like a recipe for a win.

7. NC State +13 at Florida State: NC State has an excellent defensive line and an experienced QB. FSU is starting true freshman James Blackman at QB, and while I like Blackman, he has been on campus less than three months. This wager is more about believing NC State is undervalued after some bad luck against South Carolina than it is about doubting Florida State.

8. Oklahoma -27 at Baylor: The Sooners have a bye next week. Baylor simply cannot score enough to hang.

9. Old Dominion at Virginia Tech Over 52 points: I considered playing Virginia Tech, but with Clemson on deck, this is potentially a lookahead spot. The Hokies put 64 on East Carolina last week.

10 and 11. UCF +3.5 at Maryland AND Over 59.5: UCF can really score. Maryland’s defense is not that good, but its offense should be able to score some in a high-paced game.

12. Oregon at Arizona State +14.5: This is just a lot of points at home for an Arizona State team that can score a good bit. We saw Oregon fail to fully put away Nebraska in Week 2.

13. Stanford at UCLA Under 58: So far, UCLA games have featured an average of 87 points. But consider that two of the contests were against high-powered offenses that emphasize tempo (Texas A&M and Memphis). Stanford does not. I look for a physical, slow, grinding game.

14. Ohio +2.5 at Eastern Michigan: EMU’s defense is better against the pass than the run, and that suits the Bobcats just fine.

15. USC at Cal +17.5: Cal has looked very competent so far, while USC just played an extremely physical battle against Texas. The Trojans are banged up and could be resting players.

16. Penn State at Iowa +13: Penn State lives on the big play. Iowa’s defense traditionally prevents the big play fairly well. Tight end Mike Gesicki does scare me against Iowa’s two-deep shell coverages, but 13 points in Kinnick is a lot.

17. Florida -2 at Kentucky: Florida’s rush defense is starting to show some cracks (opposing running backs have rushed for 411 yards on 71 carries). But Kentucky’s rushing offense is 114th nationally in success rate. That does not sound like a team ready to take advantage. I think Florida controls both lines of scrimmage.

18. Auburn -18 at Missouri: Auburn’s defense is excellent, and Auburn’s had some of the worst turnover luck in the country. Vegas is begging people to take Missouri in this spot, but I won’t bite.

19. Rutgers +13 at Nebraska: Rutgers is playing solid run defense so far this year, which could force Nebraska to chuck it around more. That could be good for the Scarlett Knights as the Cornhuskers lead the nation in interceptions thrown.

20. UTSA -12 at Texas State: UTSA is going to go to a bowl game this year under Frank Wilson. They are the superior team, coming off playing an FCS school and with a bye week on deck, so this is a prime spot for the Roadrunners to flex.

21. Bowling Green +7.5 at MTSU: MTSU could be without QB Brent Stockstill and top receiver Richie James. With C-USA play beginning next week, it might make sense to hold them out, if they are at all questionable.

And it's not usually because major college football programs and recruiting analysts miss on elite high school prospects.

Every year around NFL Draft time, writers from all over the country put out troublesome columns like the one from Manny Navarro of the Miami Herald, claiming that a five- or four-star recruit's chances of making the NFL are roughly equal to those of three- or two-star recruits.

If you are a high school football recruit and you aren't considered a four- or five-star recruit there is no need to panic. Your chances of being a future NFL first round pick are just about as good as those guys who receive all the attention.

Don't believe me? I spent this afternoon looking up the recruiting backgrounds of the Top 50 NFL Draft Prospects according to ESPN and found some intriguing information on how many stars they were given in high school. Of the top 50 players expected to be taken over the next three days, Rivals.com rated 26 either 4- or 5-star recruits and 24 were 3-star recruits or worse according to the scouting website.

Here's the breakdown: Six five-star recruits; 20 4-star recruits; 17 3-star recruits; six two-star recruits and 1-no star recruit.

Again in 2014, as it has been for the entire history of mainstream recruiting rankings, this assertion is false. And misleading to recruits. To his credit, Navarro amended his column to read, "Your chances of being a future NFL first round pick aren't impossible," after an exchange.

But why do so many columnists fall victim to this logical fallacy each year? A lack of perspective and understanding of probability. Let's dig into what they're missing.

Each year, roughly 4,500 football players sign Division I scholarships. In 2010, the year from which most of the prospects in the 2014 draft came, 27 were rated as five-stars by Rivals.com. Five-stars are considered no-doubt, superstar-type players. There were 395 four-stars, a designation for very good players, and 1,644 three-stars, or good players. And 2,434 were rated as two-stars or not rated at all, meaning they are at the lowest levels of FBS (85-scholarship level) or FCS players (63-scholarship level).

If, as many columnists maintain, the chances of a two-/three-star being drafted in the first round are "just about as good as those guys who receive all the attention," we would expect the following results in the first round, based on the distribution of players:

• Five-stars: Zero or one
• Four-stars: Three
• Three-stars: 12
• Two-stars/unranked: 17

But nobody, not even writers, would expect that result.

The actual breakdown:

• Five-stars: Four
• Four-stars: 13
• Three-stars: 12
• Two-stars: Three

That's not close to the same.

Four- and five-star recruits were 995 percent more likely to be drafted in the first round than their lesser-ranked counterparts.

Here's the breakdown of the draft:

Obviously, there are limitations to this analysis. Even if all 256 draft picks were two-star/unrated recruits, that would still leave 2,178 undrafted from that category. The maximum percentage drafted from that level, given the constraints of the draft, is 10.5 percent.

The chance of a lesser-rated recruit being drafted in the first round is nowhere close to what it is for a blue-chipper.

Consider this: While four- and five-star recruits made up just 9.4 percent of all recruits, they accounted for 55 percent of the first and second round. Any blue-chip prospect has an excellent shot of going on to be a top pick, if he stays healthy and out of trouble.

For those who don't like percentages, here are some more intuitive breakdowns based on the numbers from the entire 2014 draft:

• A five-star recruit had a three-in-five chance of getting drafted (16 of 27).
• A four-star had a one-in-five chance (77 of 395).
• A three-star had a one-in-18 chance (92 of 1,644).
• A two-star/unrated recruit had a one-in-34 chance (71 of 2,434).

And if the two-stars didn't already have enough going against them, keep in mind that the data set of two-star and unrated players includes three kickers and punters (who are rarely rated above two stars), two players who originally went to college on basketball scholarships and later picked up football, and a player from Canada (foreign players are almost never rated).

Ra'Shede Hageman was a 250-pound high school tight end with one scholarship offer. Then he gained 60 pounds in college and became a second-rounder. Jesse Johnson, USA Today

When two-stars get drafted ...

Sometimes, colleges and recruiting analysts simply misevaluate players. More often, however, when a low-rated recruit becomes a big NFL prospect, there is an explanation for why the prospect was rated as he was. The most common reasons are that the recruit:

• had very limited film due to injury or focus on another sport,
• is a punter or kicker,
• gained a ridiculous amount of muscle in college, while retaining athleticism,
• is from another country, or
• was expected to head to junior college because of academics but somehow qualified for a four-year school.

Let's look at two of the two-star recruits who were picked in the first round, No. 5 Buffalo linebacker Khalil Mack and No. 30 NIU safety Jimmie Ward.

Mack played at a high school that, while not a powerhouse, is not exactly a stranger to producing DI recruits. Westwood High School in Ft. Pierce, Florida, has produced seven since 2003.

So why was Mack rated a two-star? A perfect storm of reasons, really:

There were reasons: Mack was a prep basketball player who as a junior suffered a patella tendon injury that threatened his high school athletic career. He returned to health stronger than before, but he wasn't even thinking about football until Ashmon phoned Mack's dad early in the teenager's senior year and promised him that if he allowed his son to pick up a new sport, he'd go to college for free.

So Mack not only was coming off an injury, he had no film to send out to college coaches from his first three years of high school. And while he was very athletic, he did not yet have great football skills.

He was also 6'1 and 215, according to the linked article. Four years later, Mack is 6'3, 251. Those 35 pounds of added muscle are important. This is a frequently occurring topic on NFL broadcasts.

It is fair to say that recruiting services and major football powers missed on Mack. He made 140 tackles during his senior year, and he had a teammate in Luther Robinson headed to Miami. That should have been enough to get him noticed.

Yet a YouTube search does not turn up any video. A player making 140 tackles in a season on a very good high school team should have a highlight tape, but Sports Illustrated indicates that he did not have much film. That is not on schools or recruiting services; it is the responsibility of  someone connected to him to get his film cut up and sent out. Recruits cannot rely on college coaches being at their games every Friday night, not when there are thousands going on every week.

I wrote about how some good players fall through the FBS cracks and end up at the FCS level, like what almost happened to Mack, when I spoke with Samford offensive coordinator Travis Trickett:

Players routinely fall through the cracks of FBS recruiting in a variety of ways, often out of the athlete's control. Prospects may not have enough highlight footage to send to big programs, or may not know how to send it (or whom to send it to). Coaches, either at the high school or college level, can leave for other jobs, leaving the prospects in limbo, hoping they're not forgotten. That's where FCS schools come in -- they are able to limit themselves geographically while also looking at a wider range of talent sets (late bloomers, players new to the game, etc.).

How the colleges and recruiting services might have missed Mack is by starting the recruiting and evaluation process earlier and earlier each year. LSU recently offered a player before he entered the eighth grade. Most elite players emerge fairly early in their high school careers, and it makes good sense for colleges to focus on them to try to sway them to their schools. By the time Mack was finishing up his senior season, the evaluation process at many big schools was focused on juniors and sophomores. And recruiting services follow the evaluation timelines of major schools pretty closely. Missing on players like Mack is a risk big schools are willing to take, because so few players fitting Mack's profile actually exist.

And players like Mack don't always go unnoticed. Take Eddie Jackson, a player from an area close to Mack's high school, who did not play as a junior, but burst onto the scene as a senior and got noticed because his film got out. He picked up offers from Alabama, LSU, and Florida State, signed with the Tide, and was Alabama's best cornerback as a true freshman for much of the season.

Major schools and recruiting services don't require four years of excellent play, but they typically do need some film showing promise.

For those reasons, Ward -- the NIU safety from Mobile (Alabama) Davidson -- is a bigger miss than Mack. He is not a player who underwent a major growth spurt in college, played in an under-scouted area, or lacked experience. I am not saying that Ward should have been a five-star prospect based on his high school resume (size is a limiting factor), but he should have been at least a mid-level three-star.

First-round pick Jimmie Ward should've gotten more attention as a high schooler. Pat Lovell, USA Today

Weight room warriors

While all of the above reasons appeared in 2014, I wanted to take a special look at the players who blew up in the weight room after leaving high school.

A lot. Most gained 55+ lbs since HS. RT @ATick84: @SBNRecruiting how many of the 2 star and unranked players drafted are OL

— SB Nation Recruiting (@SBNRecruiting) May 10, 2014

Every year, we see former low-rated recruits get drafted who look nothing like they did in high school. In the 2013 draft, that group included the No. 1 pick, CMU's Eric Fisher.

Recruiting analysts and colleges must project a player to the college level, and part of that entails how much weight he can add to his frame. If a player appears to be maxed out, it can hurt his rating. On the other hand, a player with great length and a wide frame might be rated higher, because of his potential to add weight in a college strength program.

But that has its limitations, and the majority of undersized players with promising frames are unable to blow up in the weight room while still retaining the athleticism that got them noticed in the first place. College coaches and recruiting analysts would lose their jobs if they routinely projected every slender prospect to add the type of muscle these guys did.

Four- and five-star players rarely blow up to this extent. And there's a reason for that: they are already further along in their physical development, they offer greater certainty to the school, and they are able to be productive much earlier in their careers.

Contrast the following former low-rated recruits with No. 1 pick and No. 1 recruit Jadeveon Clowney, who gained only 10 pounds between high school and the Combine, and No. 44 pick and No. 2 recruit Cyrus Kouandjio, who gained seven.

NFL Draft wrap-up

• NFL Draft grades: Packers on top
• Undrafted free agent tracker
• Watch Michael Sam get drafted
• Picks by school, state and more
• 2015 mock draft: Winston leads the way
• Vox: How teams draft irrationally

Ra'Shede Hageman, No. 35 overall, gained 60 pounds

Hageman was a well-regarded but raw tight end recruit who grew from a listed 6'6, 250 to 310 pounds while at Minnesota, moving to defensive tackle. He's expected to make an instant impact for the Atlanta Falcons.

Weston Richburg, No. 43 overall, gained 40

RIchburg was a lightly recruited two-star offensive lineman out of Texas who, like Mack, burst out during his senior season at a small West Texas high school. Oh, and he added 40 pounds of good weight in college at Colorado State. That helps.

Richburg also played basketball and ran track, and it's fair to wonder if Richburg would have been bigger in high school, and thus noticed more, had he not participated in the other sports. On the other hand, those sports have helped him develop other skills that eventually helped him in football. He'll now be a center for the New York Giants.

Jay Bromley, No. 74 overall, gained 71

Bromley received a scholarship offer to Syracuse after taking over a postseason high school all-star game. Considering he was 6'4 and 235 pounds out of high school, nobody expected the former unrated recruit to be drafted early in the third round as a 306-pound defensive tackle by the New York Giants.

Keith Reaser, No. 170 overall, gained 42 ... as a cornerback!

Reaser was a two-star, 5'10, 147-pounder when FAU signed him, and was drafted by San Francisco at 189. He plays cornerback. Ridiculous.

Jimmy Staten, No. 172 overall, gained 86

Staten was a 6'3, 217-pound two-star defensive end in high school when he signed with Middle Tennessee State. The Seahawks drafted him at 6'4, 303.

At least nine other drafted two-stars increased their body weight by 20 percent between high school and the Combine.

SB Nation’s Bud Elliott and Morgan Moriarty break down the world of college football from a recruiting perspective. Why are so many true freshmen quarterbacks playing? Is Georgia about to go on a run?

The SB Nation College Football Recruiting Podcast returns with another episode from Bud Elliott and Morgan Moriarty. You can subscribe to the show on on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) or Google Play Music.

The show rundown is as follows. A direct link to listen can be found here.

• News of the week: Georgia really cashed it in by winning so big over Mississippi State with a number of elite prospects in attendance. No. 1 QB Justin Fields, linebackers Channing Tindall and Adam Anderson, and elite guards Jamaree Salyer and Trey Hill. This is what coaches dream of — a great atmosphere, and a great performance. Georgia currently has the Nation’s No. 14 recruiting class, but will likely rise a lot by National Signing Day.
• IMG beat Miami Central: Miami QB commit Artur Sitkowski got benched, Alabama 2019 RB commit Trey Sanders played well, and it was a very good game.
• Separation Saturday: Are Alabama and Georgia the class of the SEC after destroying Vanderbilt and Mississippi State? Who would give Alabama a better game — Georgia or Auburn?
• Freshmen QBs: Georgia (Jake Fromm), Texas (Sam Ehlinger), Florida State (James Blackman), and Texas A&M (Kellen Mond). How were they in high school, and how are the teams making them work?
• The FBI college hoops investigation: How much of this goes on in football? What does $150K for a basketball player who is likely a one-and-done suggest a football player could be worth?
• If all college football players came back to school, who would win the national title? (Teasing Bud’s upcoming article)
• Was Butch Jones’ rant inspired because of a question about one of his players punching another?

• Re-visiting our hot seat talk from Week 4: Kevin Sumlin’s Texas A&M Aggies beat Bret Bielema’s Arkansas Razorbacks, Barry Odom’s Missouri Tigers got crushed at home by Gus Malzahn’s Auburn team, Ed Orgeron’s LSU Tigers struggled against Syracuse, Jim McElwain’s Florida Gators beat Mark Stoops’ Kentucky Wildcats, and Butch Jones’ Tennessee Volunteers struggled with UMass. Did anyone substantially alter their fortunes?
• What will we learn this week? Who is going to get upset? Texas (-6.5) at Iowa State, Miami (-6.5) at Duke, Nebraska (-6.5) at Illinois, USC (-4) at Washington State, Georgia (-7) at Tennessee, Mississippi State at Auburn (-9.5), Clemson (-7.5) at Virginia Tech, and Colorado at UCLA (-7), and Florida State (-7.5) at Wake Forest.

Alabama? FSU? Georgia? LSU? Ohio State? USC?

What if all of the NFL players went back to their colleges? Which school would win the national championship?

It’s a fun question recently posed by a Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ linebacker who played for LSU.

So let’s discuss this.

For purposes of this argument, let’s assume that only the NFL players are playing, and not combining with college players (though I’m willing to hear an argument about the latter).

Here are the 12 teams with the greatest ability to fill out a team of current NFL players. All roster data is from ESPN’s tracker (Note: ESPN groups players by where they finished their college careers, as do I. For example, Russell Wilson with Wisconsin, not N.C. State). I have organized it by the 12 teams, here.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Strength: The Tide has a great duo of receivers in Julio Jones and Amari Cooper, plus quality depth at most spots. The linebacking corps is imposing, with Dont’a Hightower, Reuben Foster, C.J. Mosley, Mark Barron, and others.

Weakness: Quarterback. AJ McCarron was nothing to write home about in college and is a backup in the NFL. And despite many a great college defense, Alabama does not have many good corners in the league.

Auburn Tigers

Strength: Cam Newton.

Weakness: Depth. Only two offensive linemen in the league and a lack of defensive stars.

Clemson Tigers

Strength: Receiver. Martavis Bryant, Jaron Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Adam Humphries, Sammy Watkins, and Mike Williams would be the best set of receivers in this league.

Weakness: Clemson has only two offensive linemen in the NFL, and its cornerbacks aren’t anything special. QB Deshaun Watson is promising, but a rookie.

Florida State Seminoles

Strength: Florida State has the best defensive backs in the league, with Xavier Rhodes, Jalen Ramsey, Lamarcus Joyner, Ronald Darby, P.J. Williams and others. FSU also has a great running back group with Dalvin Cook, Devonta Freeman, and Chris Thompson. Florida State also has Jameis Winston and is one of few teams that actually has enough position players to fill out all positions.

Weakness: Florida State only has two receivers in the NFL and has only had two drafted in the last 10 drafts.

Georgia Bulldogs

Strength: Georgia’s pass rush is incredible, with Geno Atkins, Justin Houston, and Leonard Floyd. Matthew Stafford throwing to A.J. Green and handing the ball to Todd Gurley is really nice, too.

Weakness: Cornerback. Surprisingly, the Bulldogs have only one in the league: Brandon Boykin. It’s much easier to shift a corner to safety than the reverse. And the Georgia offensive linemen in the league aren’t that great.

LSU Tigers

Strength: LSU would have an excellent secondary (Patrick Peterson, Eric Reid, Tyrann Mathieu), offensive line (Andrew Whitworth, La’El Collins), and receiving corps (Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, Brandon LaFell).

Weakness: LSU’s best QB option is Zach Mettenberger.

Miami Hurricanes

Strength: Tight end and receiver. Miami has six tight ends on NFL rosters, including Jimmy Graham, Greg Olsen, Clive Walford, Travis Benjamin, and Allen Hurns. Miami also has some top defensive linemen like Olivier Vernon and Calais Campbell.

Weakness: The Hurricanes do not have enough offensive linemen to field a starting unit, their best QB option is Brad Kaaya, and they have few quality options at linebacker or in the secondary.

Michigan Wolverines

Strength: Tom Brady.

Weakness: Michigan does not have any running backs in the NFL and has only one cornerback, rookie Jourdan Lewis.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Strength: Ohio State would have a nasty running and play-action game with Ezekiel Elliott, Carlos Hyde, Michael Thomas, and Ted Ginn. Defensively, Joey Bosa, Eli Apple, Vonn Bell, and Ryan Shazier are standouts.

Weakness: Quarterback. Cardale Jones wasn’t all that good in college outside of the last two games of 2014 and is not considered a potential starter in the NFL. Ohio State also would have trouble stopping the run, due to a lack of defensive tackles.

Oklahoma Sooners

Strength:Sam Bradford throwing behind an offensive line featuring Trent Williams and Lane Johnson and handing it to Joe Mixon, DeMarco Murray, and Adrian Peterson.

Weakness: Oklahoma has just two defensive backs in the league.

Texas A&M Aggies

Strength: Texas A&M has some serious star power with Mike Evans, Michael Bennett, Von Miller, Jake Matthews, and other quality starters.

Weakness: The Aggies have no defensive tackles in the NFL, though Bennett can certainly play there, and their secondary is not that talented.

USC Trojans

Strength: Carson Palmer behind an offensive line that includes Tyron Smith and the Kalil brothers. Defensively, USC has a number of talents like Leonard Williams, Jurrell Casey, Clay Matthews, and Adoree’ Jackson.

Weakness: Surprisingly, the Trojans do not currently have many impact players at running back or receiver.

Narrowing it down to a Playoff field

Let’s try to whittle down these 12 teams to just four.

Not having a QB good enough to start in the league is probably a fatal error.

Given that almost all of the national powers have a lot of talent in the NFL, the most important position becomes even more important. For that reason, Florida is not even listed above. The Gators do not have a quarterback on an NFL roster. Let’s also say goodbye to Ohio State and Miami.

Some teams cannot fill out a starting lineup.

Clemson and Auburn only have two offensive linemen in the league, so they are out. Oklahoma only has two defensive backs, so let’s also say goodbye to the Sooners. Ditto Texas A&M with its lack of bulk on the interior.

And then there were six: Alabama, Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Michigan, and USC.

Despite having Tom Brady, Michigan is out because of the lack of talent and depth it could put around him. But getting from five to four is tough.

Georgia and Florida State seem obvious because of the quality of talent and quarterbacks. Then I’ll take USC, because of quarterback, and LSU over Alabama, because the Tigers’ recent alumni simply have turned out better in the league.

The bracket

You could swap the one and two seeds or the three and four seeds, but I’m not sure it matters all that much.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 LSU

Both teams have some awesome superstars. But Georgia having a legitimate starting NFL QB in Stafford takes it. QB issues haunt LSU once again.

No. 2 Florida State vs. No. 3 USC

Both teams have legitimate NFL QBs, so the battle comes down to the other positions. Florida State gives plenty of touches to star running backs, and the best collection of NFL secondary talent shuts down USC’s receiving corps.

Your turn: Georgia vs. Florida State

This is a fascinating matchup. Florida State’s cornerbacks against Georgia’s receivers? Georgia’s formidable front seven against FSU’s trio of runners?

It’s too close for me to pick it, so I’ll let you make the call. Let me know in the comment section.

Let’s pick out some wagers for a deep Week 5 of college football.

All wagers at -110 odds unless otherwise noted. My picks are in bold, with that team’s spread attached. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.

Season record: 28-29.

I had a strong Week 4, going 13-8. My spread picks were won by margins of 17, 23.5, 1, 41.5, 19, 31.5, 16.5, 9.5, 7.5, 11, 19, 3, and 18 points. My losses were by 20.5, 20, 28.5, 7, 2.5, 19, 1, and 3.5 points.

I did lose all three plays where I picked on over/unders. My UCLA-Stanford under was a bad wager I deserved to lose. Stanford’s offense covered the number by itself despite rotating quarterbacks. But the TCU at Oklahoma State under was, in my opinion, a good play. I lost it by four points, mostly due to the field position created by turnovers. But the one I really could not see coming was losing the over in the UCF-Maryland game. Why did the play lose? Because Maryland, after an injury, was forced to play with its No. 3 quarterback. Unsurprisingly, the No. 3 QB (who’s sort of the No. 4) for a team like Maryland wasn’t good. Rats.

If last week was defined by ranked teams laying big points on the road, this week features a lesser version: small road favorites. This is certainly a danger zone.

Picks below are in bold.

Friday

1. Miami at Duke Under 56.5: Duke is playing some defense this year and has not faced a front like Miami’s. While I don’t trust the Hurricanes’ secondary, Miami’s offense has also not seen a pressure defense like Duke’s.

2. Nebraska at Illinois +7: Illinois is surprisingly competent. Nebraska has looked like a team that will struggle to make a bowl.

Saturday

3. Clemson at Virginia Tech Under 51: Kelly Bryant has already posted QB ratings of 115 and 95 this season and now must head on the road to face a Bud Foster defense. Virginia Tech’s QB is redshirt freshman Josh Jackson.

4. Mississippi State at Auburn -9: I think Auburn is a top-10 team with a nasty defense and an offense that is coming around. Mississippi State got beat up by Georgia.

5. Arizona State +17.5 at Stanford: I really, really did not want to take the Sun Devils again this week after winning on them against Oregon. Stanford usually has their number. But then I saw that the number was this high, and I had to pull the trigger.

6. NIU +11 at San Diego State: SDSU is a good team, but 11 points just feels off. Defense travels, and the Huskies have one.

7. North Carolina +10 at Georgia Tech: In a game that should be high-scoring, I am taking the points.

8. Ole Miss at Alabama -27.5: Ole Miss cannot run the football at all. Its run defense is also not impressive. While chucking it around against Alabama is sometimes a good recipe, Ole Miss’ offense simply hasn’t looked like it can score on this defense.

9. Akron -2.5 at Bowling Green: Bowling Green’s defense is one of the worst in all of college football. Changing QBs, as the Falcons did this week, is not going to fix that.

10. Marshall +4.5 at Cincinnati: Marshall put up an impressive amount of yards against NC State, which has a good defense. Cincinnati does not have a good defense.

11. Maryland at Minnesota -12: Minnesota is coming off a bye week, and Maryland’s QB situation was just terrible against UCF last week. This could be a boat race.

12. Oklahoma State -9 at Texas Tech: Oklahoma State put up almost seven yards per play last week against TCU in the loss. I expect the Cowboys to be too much for the Red Raiders.

13. Cal at Oregon -13: I have successfully bet on Cal several times already this season. Cal is competent. But the value on Cal might now be gone, and Oregon will be hungry to bounce back from the egg laid in Tempe last week.

14. Troy +21 at LSU: This is a simple lookahead spot for LSU, with the revenge game at Florida on deck.

15. Florida State -7 at Wake Forest: I successfully bet against Florida State last week in this column, but Wake Forest does not have the talent of NC State.

16. San Jose State at UNLV -12.5: UNLV has really bounced back since losing to FCS team Howard in the opener.

17. Northwestern +15 at Wisconsin: Northwestern has bounced back quite well since being demolished by Duke.

18. Memphis +4 at UCF: UCF crushing a Big Ten team last week, albeit a Big Ten team running out of QBs, inflates this line a bit too much.

19. Colorado +7.5 at UCLA: UCLA’s rushing defense is averaging 308 yards allowed per game. Colorado does not throw the ball well, but it might not have to.

20. Air Force at New Mexico (PK): Bob Davie has done well against Air Force, and the Falcons have a game with Navy on deck.

21. Vanderbilt +10 at Florida: Vanderbilt was crushed by Alabama, true, but it also beat Kansas State. Florida so far has defeated two wildly undisciplined teams. Vanderbilt is not all that talented, but it is disciplined. UF also has LSU on deck.

Miami’s offense cooled after the first quarter, but its defense dominated all game.

Miami defeated Duke 31-6 thanks to a dominant defensive performance, and some early big plays by its stars Ahmmon Richards and Mark Walton. Duke was held to an embarrassing four-yards/pass. Read below to see how everything unfolded.

First quarter

Miami did a great job in the opening quarter of taking advantage of the man-to-man coverage the Hurricanes expected out of Duke’s defense. The Hurricanes likely expected this because it is a common response to the run-pass option game (RPO) that Miami heavily utilizes.

The way the Hurricanes took advantage was to get the ball to their two best playmakers: Running back Mark Walton and receiver Ahmmon Richards in the passing game. The pair had catches of 39, 29, and 28 yards in the first quarter, and all were nice plays and not mental errors by the Blue Devils. QB Malik Rozier put the ball in a spot where his stars could make a play on the football, and they did. He was 8-8 in the quarter, for 155 yards, with a passing and rushing touchdown.

The Blue Devils typically win with patience, flawless execution, and waiting for the opponent to make a dumb mistake. It’s an approach that has often had David Cutcliffe’s Duke program in bowl games. But in the first quarter, Duke shot itself in the foot badly. It had two pass interference calls and an offsides on defense. Miami has superior athletes, so the Blue Devils cannot afford to commit so many penalties. On offense, an unnecessary clip derailed one drive, and a (likely) blown protection call allowed a blitzer through on another.

At the end of one, the scoreboard read 14-3, Hurricanes.

Second Quarter

Duke’s attempted defensive adjustments

On the first drive of the second quarter, Duke seemed intent on changing things up after allowing over 10 yards/play in the first. The Blue Devils started bringing a lot of pressure, which seemed to catch Miami off guard, forcing a quick punt.

For the second Miami drive of the second quarter, Duke continued to bring pressure, while occasionally mixing up its fronts to create free rushers against Miami’s offensive line. Malik Rozier, who had been tremendous in the first quarter, was forced to take his eyes down and watch the rush. On the two drives, he was 1-3, for zero yards, and was sacked twice.

Duke’s defense continued to blitz on Miami’s third series of the quarter, but a great Walton run, and some nice blitz pickup on a third-and-8 were the keys to getting down deep in Duke territory. Rozier had a nice scramble too against yet another blitz to get Miami down deep, but the Hurricanes could not punch it in from the one-foot line, and settled for a field goal to go up 17-3.

Duke’s attempted offensive adjustments

Offensively, the Blue Devils went up-tempo and kept the ball on the ground well with some inside zone and wham blocking, but a holding and clipping resulted in a second-and-34 from Duke’s own territory.

The second Duke drive of the second quarter ended quickly, as Miami’s Michael Pinckney made a great diving interception on a tipped ball, though it was the result of an uncalled pass interference penalty.

Miami is the first team Duke has faced with multiple athletic big men on defense, and the Blue Devils are not handling it well. The Hurricanes are squatting on the quick game, because Duke has not been able to pass protect long enough to push the ball down the field. The Blue Devils had drives of 14, 10, 10, and 9 plays fail to result in a touchdown.

The third Duke drive of the half saw the Blue Devils try to work more of the middle of the field with the passing game, several times successfully singling up a speedy pass catcher on a linebacker. But the Hurricanes held strong, forcing a field goal attempt, and have the 17-6 lead at the half.

Third quarter

Miami dodged a bullet to open the second half, as Malik Rozier threw what looked like an lateral to Mark Walton, but it was ruled an incomplete on the field, and review lacked clear evidence to overturn, so the call stood. Duke ended Miami’s drive by bluffing a blitz and then sagging into coverage, which was the right call for Miami’s blitz-counter call of a tunnel screen.

One theme emerging so far tonight is Miami’s attempt to get the ball to its two all-world speedsters in true freshmen Jeff Thomas and Mike Harley. But the first four targets resulted in just two catches for two yards.

Duke’s opening drive of the half looked quite promising, with rushes of 15, 11, and 13 yards on consecutive plays. But QB Daniel Jones badly underthrew a wide open T.J. Rahming on what would have likely been a 45-yard touchdown, and then was sacked.

After a 3-8 stretch for Rozier, Miami went back to the ground on its ensuing drive, perhaps in an attempt to settle down its QB. But on a crucial third down, Miami got Walton singled up on a defensive end and Rozier hit him in stride for a gain of 25. Though Duke was able to hold the Hurricanes scoreless on the drive thanks to continued pressure on Rozier, Miami’s offense looked as it had successfully flipped the field. But Miami punter Zach Feagles booted a ball for negative one yard. Seriously.

After a Duke punt, Rozier badly overthrew Richards due to some pressure in his face, and was intercepted.

Miami’s first two drives: 12 yards/play. Miami’s next seven drives: 3.9.

On the ensuing drive, Duke finally hit a deep shot down the sideline against cover-2, with Jones beautifully fitting the ball over the corner and in front of the safety. But Miami held on fourth down. Duke’s players were upset about several potential uncalled pass-interference penalties during the drive, but Miami took over at its own 43. The mood only soured once Duke was immediately, and correctly, called for pass interference on Miami’s first play of the ensuing drive.

But the Blue-devils held strong with more pressure against against the Hurricanes, forcing another punt. Miami led 17-6 going to the fourth quarter.

Fourth quarter

Mark Walton looked to have banged up his ankle back in the second quarter, and since then has been looking to avoid contact, which is probably smart with a double-digit lead.

But Miami’s other playmaker, Ahmmon Richards, who was quiet for the middle two quarters, took advantage of a Duke coverage bust on a slant and ran 49 yards to put Miami up 24-6.

After another stop, it is a bit surprising that Miami still has Mark Walton still in the game considering he is coming off an ankle injury. Five carries after I wrote the last sentence, Walton was down in pain. He walked off under his own power, appearing to have rolled his left ankle.

It didn’t matter much in this game, because Miami was clearly superior to Duke, but the Hurricanes’ secondary was allowed to be very physical and grabby against Duke. Given that group is considered the weaker of the three levels of Miami’s defense, that will be worth watching going forward. If the Hurricanes are allowed to play that way, this Miami defense can be nasty.

USC lost three starting offensive linemen, and Washington State harassed Sam Darnold all night.

Washington State knocked off USC late Friday night, 30-27 in Pullman. This is what I saw.

This was bad football

With so many players out for USC (and a couple injured for Washington State, too), the game devolved into a mistake-filled slopfest. Sometimes games are won, and sometimes they are lost, and the loser in this one simply made a lot more mistakes, as opposed to forcing the opposition to execute and make great plays.

USC’s secondary got shredded between the hashes

If not for the six drops by Washington State’s receivers, QB Luke Falk might have thrown for 500 yards. Washington State continually found receivers open when matched up against USC’s nickel corners or safeties. USC’s two starting corners seemed to provide good coverage more often than not.

USC’s offensive line got decimated by injuries

Already without starting left tackle Toa Loabandon, USC’s right tackle Chuma Edoga (foot) went down in the first quarter. USC’s primary backups for its tackle spots are sophomore Clayton Johnson, and two true freshmen Andrew Vorhees and Austin Jackson. Vorhees struggled a lot with pass protection in the game against Texas.

Early on, USC was using a tight end aligned outside its reserve left tackle, but when Edoga went down, the Trojans were in need of extra help at both spots. Then the hit parade continues, as guard Viane Tailoaviamo went down with a shoulder injury, leaving USC without three of its offensive line starters.

Washington State was not expected to be able to get pressure without blitzing, but that expectation changed once the Trojans were without Loabandon, Edoga, and Tailoaviamo. The pressure clearly impacted Sam Darnold in the first half, as he started 5-6 for 58 yards, but then went 4-12 for just 31 yards and an interception.

Darnold would finish with a stat line of 15-29 for 164 yards, and an interception. The Trojans could not protect well enough to get the football down the field often, and Washington State deserves a lot of credit for seizing the opportunity.

Washington State and USC blew scoring chances in the first half

USC had two drives begin in Washington State territory, at the 41- and 3-yard lines, and came away with just three points. Washington State had four drops from open receivers, including three on crucial third downs. It was a sloppy, mistake-filled half for both teams.

USC went only 59 yards over six drives (23 plays, 59 yards)

StatsBroadcast

Yikes. And during that time, USC’s defense was bending, but not breaking. But while it bent, it was getting tired.

Luke Falk takes a beating

Falk holds the ball forever and a day. It can lead to some big plays. But he also gets crushed a lot. And it just does not seem to impact him. He stands tall in the pocket and delivers the ball.

Can we appreciate Sam Darnold for what he is, and not create strengths out of thin air?

Throughout the broadcast, and from some NFL draft folks on social media, the refrain about Sam Darnold’s arm strength was constant. I like Sam Darnold. A lot. I’ve seen him since he was in high school. But I like Darnold because of how naturally he moves in the pocket, how he can throw off balance, his ability to put the ball over one defender and in front of another in the middle of the field, and his vision. His arm strength isn’t necessarily all that special.

The Crootletter is your source for recruiting scoop, trends, and analysis.

I married into an LSU family. And I manage SB Nation’s recruiting coverage for a living. And LSU recruits really well. So I watch more LSU than most people outside of Baton Rouge.

And Saturday night, I found myself watching LSU get pushed around by Troy during a loss in Death Valley. Running back Jordan Chunn rushed 30 times for 191 yards. Troy’s running back ran 30 times against LSU, in Death Valley, for an average of 6.4 yards/carry. Yikes.

Let’s set aside the questions about Ed Orgeron’s inability to keep his promises not to micromanage every aspect of his program like he did at Ole Miss or avoid throwing his offensive coordinator under the bus.

LSU’s strength program didn’t just collapse, so the question I have is: Where did all the big guys LSU has signed go?

The 10 men starting for the Bayou Bengals along the lines (the offensive line, three down defensive linemen, and two outside linebackers) have an interesting mix of experience and youth: sixth-year senior (one), fifth-year senior (two), senior (two), junior (one), redshirt freshman (two), and true freshman (one).

On the surface, having all that experience up front seems like a great thing. But this is LSU.

When players have a shot to go pro early, they typically do so, perhaps more than anywhere else in the country. When I see fifth- and even sixth-year players in LSU’s starting lineup, it tells me LSU is having to start way too many guys without next-level talent. When LSU is at its best, it is dominating with a few of those, and a lot of second-, third-, and some fourth-year players. And this is where the lineup is lacking.

Looking through the 2014-15 classes, the problem is clear. LSU signed 15 linemen in that span, and only six are still on the roster. That means nine did not complete their eligibility at LSU. While one did go pro early, the other eight transferred, and five of those had significant discipline problems.

Some of the players who are no longer on the roster were really talented. While he was rarely healthy, academically eligible, and in shape at the same time, Travonte Valentine was very talented, as were Trey Lealaimatafao and the Teuhema brothers.

That’s really it. Many of the guys LSU should be depending on are not on the roster because they have been dismissed, failed out, or transferred.

Of the remaining six from those classes, four are starters, but one of the better players, tackle Toby Weathersby, missed the Troy game with an injury, as did a lot of other players.

LSU needs to reload its roster with quality linemen. Orgeron knows this:

LSU is more of a rebuilding situation than I realized.

Interim coaches are hired because the athletic department believes that the team is close to winning, wants to maintain some level of continuity, and believes the interim is the right person to keep the existing good elements, while bringing in some new.

But interim coaches are not afforded the luxury of a Year Zero, because they already understand what needs to be fixed by virtue of having coached the team as an interim.

You don’t promote an interim coach for a rebuilding situation. But after striking out on Jimbo Fisher and losing its game of chicken with Tom Herman, the Tigers might have done just that.

Will LSU have patience with Orgeron if it turns out LSU needs a true rebuild? I’m not sure that it will, or that it should.

Quickly

• I am glad to see some in the non-recruiting media realize the problem with the NCAA’s rule change dealing with colleges and high school coaches. Andy Staples of Sports Illustratedtackled it last week:

Another part of the rule, however, did more pimp-enabling. Previously, football programs would pay high school coaches to work their summer camps. They can’t do that anymore if they want to sign one of that coach’s players in a two-year period. Did schools use the camp roles to reward coaches who might funnel them recruits? Sure. But at least those coaches were beholden to the high schools and municipalities that employed them. They had a powerful incentive to not sell their players or sell access to their players. Now? Programs will slip cash to random handlers who are beholden to no one and looking to make a quick buck off the best athletes in their communities. Those people will deliver the athletes to camps. It’s not nearly as juicy as a giant shoe company bankrolling a recruitment, but it’s all part of the same problem. The money isn’t going to the people it should go to, so it’s going to find a way to go somewhere.

• Three-star receiver recruit Jatavious Harris has re-opened his recruitment. He is still committed to Tennessee but is now listening to other offers.
• And The Valley Shook has the scoop on four-star LSU cornerback recruit Kelvin Joseph decommitting.
• A look at Chris Ash’s recruiting at Rutgers.
• Washington State landed two offensive line commitments following the upset of USC.
• Alabama played 16 true freshmen against Ole Miss, which will help the Tide to combat negative recruiting.

We have a whole lot of uninteresting games to get through before the two that actually look great.

I can’t wait to watch Alabama go to Auburn on Nov. 25. And three weeks before, it’ll be fun to watch Georgia go to Auburn. These teams are legitimately somewhere between very good and incredible. And if you have three teams of that caliber, you are a legitimate league.

But other than that? This SEC schedule is a snoozer. About half of the fan bases in the league want to fire their head coaches. Vanderbilt (!) has been on CBS and ESPN national broadcasts in back-to-back weeks.

The reason the schedule is so bad is the number of teams who just can’t be taken seriously as threats to win the conference or even to challenge the conference contenders in a given game.

• Texas A&M blew a 34-point lead to a UCLA team that’d lose to Memphis.
• LSU got stomped by Mississippi State and gave up 190 yards to Troy’s running back in a loss in Death Valley.
• That Mississippi State team subsequently lost to Georgia and Auburn by a combined score of 80-13.
• Arkansas was stomped by TCU.
• Ole Miss is a disaster.

And that’s just in the West.

On the East side, it’s Georgia and the six dwarves.

• Two-time defending East champ Florida was crushed by a baby-faced Michigan that lost everyone from 2016 to the draft and needed miracles to escape Kentucky and Tennessee.
• Tennessee lost to Georgia 41-0 in Knoxville.
• Kentucky lost to Florida by twice failing to have a cornerback in the game to cover a receiver. The Wildcats beat Southern Miss, FCS Eastern Kentucky, and Eastern Michigan by an average of just a touchdown.
• Vanderbilt has its best team in a half-decade ... and lost at home to Alabama by a score of 59-0.
• Missouri is one of the worst teams in the Power 5, having lost at home to Purdue, South Carolina, and Auburn by a combined 87 points.

I don’t envy new CBS announcer Brad Nessler.

Having to hype up this slate of games is going to be brutal. The SEC is normally a national brand, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find people, outside of those wearing the colors of the teams in the game, who want to watch teams that have already showed themselves to be far from the standard the SEC normally boasts.

SEC Network games will be pure comedy gold, as the announcers have to try and shill for these sad-sack teams.

What other games do you really want to see in this league?

Maybe Georgia vs. Florida, just for the weirdness?

If you’re in a pool to bet on which game Butch Jones makes it to, the road trip to Kentucky might be interesting to you, and only you.

If you’re not an LSU or Florida fan, do you care about the stupid hurricane-related spat that was borne out of mismanagement by the SEC office last year?

Do you care when Auburn goes to Death Valley, after seeing how War Eagle crushed the Mississippi State team that did the same to LSU?

I don’t personally care to watch Arkansas try to bring its pro-style offense to Tuscaloosa and get brained for the umpteenth year by a Tide defense that loves to face teams that don’t run the spread.

What about Week 12, when half of the league is facing Group of 5 cupcakes or FCS opponents?

Does watching Will Muschamp’s South Carolina host a Florida that still plays like it is coached by Muschamp intrigue you? Oh right, I forgot to include South Carolina in the list above. There’s probably a reason for that.

Wake me up come November.

When overestimating the odds of success and passing the buck come together.

Buyouts have been a huge topic in recent weeks in college football, as many schools are considering making coaching changes. For instance, why in the hell does Ed Orgeron have a buyout of $12M? Or Bret Bielema, who is 10-23 in SEC play, having a buyout of $15M at Arkansas. Or Butch Jones having a buyout of about $8M at Tennessee. Or Kevin Sumlin’s $11M at Texas A&M.

To get out of a contract, a school or coach often must pay a buyout, an agreed-upon sum of money to release the other party from the contract.

A new coach typically wants a certain period of time to recruit and develop his players and see his vision come to fruition at the school. He wants to be assured that if things are going rocky at the beginning, or that if a school has a change in leadership, he will either get that time or be paid his money in the form of a buyout.

Conversely, schools want to make sure that the candidate they are hiring does not leave them for greener pastures, so attaching a buyout that the coach (or, in actuality, his new employer) must pay can help protect the school.

Some schools can benefit from a high buyout.

The prime examples are schools in mid-major conferences, like the AAC, MAC, or Sun Belt. These schools do not have the money to hold on to hot shot coaches who, after proving themselves, will look to jump to bigger jobs.

In this instance, the school can be helped financially, like Colorado State was with its $7.5M buyout price when Florida came calling. These type of programs are not trying to deter others from taking their coaches, but rather are trying to get paid out, like a bettor in a poker game who bets just small enough to keep other players in the pot, as opposed to betting huge and hoping others will fold.

There are also some very select instances in which a premier program has a coach whom it suspects might jump to the NFL, or perhaps to his alma mater. USC, back when it employed Pete Caroll, might have been a good example. Carroll had coached in the NFL and was an up-and-comer.

Sometimes, the cost for a school to fire a coach is not equal to the cost for the coach to break the contract and leave the school.

For example, the buyout for Florida State, if it wanted to fire Jimbo Fisher, would be close to $40M. This is one of the worst buyouts in sports.

But the buyout on Fisher’s side is nowhere close to that figure. If he wants to leave, all he must do is pay the school the remaining money owed on the existing contracts of his assistants. At a major program, that’s not a tiny sum, but it’s a pittance compared to what the school would have to pay.

But more often than not, athletic directors are getting taken to the cleaners by agents.

Routinely, agents are fleecing big school athletic directors who, once they have zeroed in on their man, drastically overestimate the chance that he is such a wild success that he would be hired away by one of a few programs, while drastically underestimating the chance that the coach fails and will need to be fired.

In addition to the pressure to get the hire made and being far too overconfident in it, athletic directors often have little incentive to push back on large buyout numbers. Why? A football hire is the most important hire an AD will make. And if it fails, the chance that the AD is himself fired is quite high. At that point, the huge buyout is the problem of the next AD.

Additionally, agents are typically much better at negotiating than athletic directors. A select few agencies rep almost all of the major coaches in the sport. ADs almost certainly could get these coaching candidates to sign on for much less guaranteed money, since the elite jobs are so scarce.

There is also the comparative fallacy, in which an agent will say, “Coach A has a buyout of $$, so shouldn’t Coach B, especially because you think he is better?”

Where on earth did LSU AD Joe Alleva believe Orgeron would jump to?

His Cajun style fits perfectly at LSU and almost nowhere else. Nobody in the NFL is coming after Orgeron, nor are any other big-time schools. The chance that LSU is the best job Orgeron could possibly get is 100 percent. Orgeron should have agreed to take that job for a buyout equal to one season of salary, regardless of contract length.

What jobs could these athletic directors possibly have been worrying about these coaches leaving for? The answer might be that they didn’t have to think, because if their huge hires fail, they’ll be fired along with them. More than likely, it won’t be their problem.

Without someone overseeing the AD’s contract negotiation, agents are like foxes in the hen house.

Big recruits are making trips, and how does a depth chart impact QB recruiting?

The SB Nation College Football Recruiting Podcast returns with another episode. You can subscribe to the show on on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) or Google Play Music.

The show rundown is as follows. A direct link to listen can be found here.

• Some major prospects taking visits this weekend: Miami at Florida State (CB Pat Surtain II, CB Kelvin Joseph, WR Terrace Marshall II, OL Trey Hill, DB Houston Griffith, WR Jaylen Waddle, and probably QB Justin Fields); Michigan State at Michigan (WR Amon-Ra St. Brown), Alabama at Texas A&M (DL Jeremiah Martin, DL Vernon Jackson)
• Justin Fields talk, and a broader discussion of what Georgia does
• LSU’s lineman problem, and the LSU-Florida rivalry
• The SEC Schedule is not good
• Weekly coaches hot seat check-in: Butch Jones and Ed Orgeron.
• Coach buyouts are crazy!
• This week’s betting lines: Louisville -3.5 at N.C. State, Stanford -5.5 at Utah, LSU at Florida -3, Kansas State at Texas -3.5, Miami -3 at Florida State, WVU at TCU -13.5

Let’s pick out some wagers for a deep Week 6 of college football.

All wagers at -110 odds unless otherwise noted. My picks are in bold, with that team’s spread attached. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.

Season record: 42-35. A 14-6 Week 5 got my head above water and back to the 55 percent mark.

This is the time of year when to start paying attention to bye weeks. Some teams have played five straight games, while some have had a bit of a reset. Also keep in mind some major rivalry games happen next week, so beware the lookahead.

Thursday

1. Louisville at NC State +3.5: Louisville has Lamar Jackson. It has Bobby Petrino, who is very good at scheming open big plays. And NC State gives up big plays. But Carter-Finley Stadium is a great night atmosphere, the Wolfpack defensive line is nasty, and QB Ryan Finley does not turn the ball over. Clemson beat Louisville a few weeks ago with a combination of an elite defensive line and safe passes.

Saturday

2. Minnesota at Purdue -3: QB David Blough should return for Purdue. Minnesota was awful last week against Maryland’s third-string QB.

3. Miami at Florida State under 47: I’ve seen Florida State score 7, 21, and 26 points against good defenses. I’ve not seen Miami play a good defense.

4. Missouri +10.5 at Kentucky: Missouri had a bye week to regroup after a disastrous stretch. Getting on the road could actually be helpful for a team getting booed at home.

5. Notre Dame -14 at North Carolina: Notre Dame has a bye on deck and is coming off a game against Miami (Ohio), so there is no lookahead or hangover. UNC’s run defense is terrible, and Notre Dame has turned into one of the best running teams in the country.

6. ULM at Texas State +6.5: The Bobcats are explosive, but inefficient. ULM gives up big plays frequently.

7. Western Michigan -6.5 at Buffalo: Buffalo’s defense is good at preventing big plays, but is inefficient. That is fine, because Western Michigan struggles to create explosive plays but can go on controlled drives.

8. Eastern Michigan +13.5 at Toledo: I like this Toledo team a lot. The Rockets can really score. But Eastern Michigan’s defense is pretty salty, and this is a big number.

9. LSU +3.5 at Florida: LSU is getting back some key contributors on the defensive line. Florida’s offense without injured QB Luke Del Rio has struggled.

10. Arizona +7 at Colorado: Colorado’s offense is underwhelming and coming off an emotional loss to UCLA. Arizona is off a bye week.

11. Maryland at Ohio State -30: Maryland won with its third-string QB at Minnesota last week, but this week, the slipper gets stomped.

12. UCF at Cincinnati +17.5: UCF is in a massive letdown-lookahead sandwich, coming off the win over Memphis and with the rivalry game at USF on deck. I screwed up and thought USF was on deck after misreading the schedule. But I posted it, so the bet stands.

13. SMU +7 at Houston: Houston has some serious QB issues right now.

14. Pitt at Syracuse -3.5: Syracuse is terribly inefficient, but is great at hitting big plays. And Pitt loves to give up big plays.

15. Michigan State at Michigan -10: In a battle of iffy offenses and stout defenses, I’ll take the team that is somewhat better on both sides.

16. Tulsa at Tulane -3.5: Tulsa has a terrible rushing defense. Tulane is a good running team.

17. San Diego State at UNLV +10.5: San Diego State is a great rushing team. UNLV’s rushing defense is better than its pass defense.

18. Kansas State +4 at Texas: Texas just cannot run the football, and having to throw it a bunch against the Wildcats is not a good recipe. Texas also has Oklahoma on deck.

19. Texas Tech at Kansas +18: Kansas is off a bye. This is a lot of points to lay on the road for a Texas Tech team off an emotional loss.

20. Arkansas -2 at South Carolina: South Carolina has scored 17, 13, and 17 points without star receiver Deebo Samuel.

21. Florida International at MTSU -9: I look for a bounce back after Middle Tennessee laid an egg last week against Florida Atlantic.

22. Ole Miss at Auburn -21: If Ole Miss couldn’t block Alabama, it can’t block Auburn. The War Eagle offense is getting on track.

23. Georgia at Vanderbilt +18: Georgia lines are now officially inflated. Alabama was laying just 19 on the road at Vanderbilt two weekends ago.

What a school or quarterback recruit does impacts everyone else in the race to sign a QB.

Quarterback is the most important position in football. Most college programs want to carry four on scholarship, which means most schools will sign a QB every year.

Typically, only about 20 or 25 are rated four- or five-stars, so demand for elite QBs far outpaces supply. And teams usually do not move on from their No. 1 targets to accept a commitment from another until it is clear that they are out of the running for their first choice. Lesser-rated recruits know this.

Given that teams rarely rotate quarterbacks, a top QB will often want to reserve his spot with the school of his choice. QB is also the noted position of leadership, so a committed QB often become a class’ lead recruiter.

Every year, we track the dominoes as they fall. QB1 picks school A, so School B moves on to QB2 as School C moves on to QB3. But then QB1 decommits from School A, and the cycle is thrown into chaos.

It's like securing a date for prom. Schools must properly assess a prospect's interest, and prospects must not wait too long for offers that never come. Overplaying one’s hand can be as bad as underplaying it.

Winter 2015: The first dominoes

Sometimes, QBs commit so early that the recruiting industry has not caught up to them. Most schools are not going to accept commitments four years in advance, unless they are confident the player will be a special talent.

This cycle, it starts in Nov. 2015, more than two years ahead of Signing Day.

North Carolina has started the 2018 cycle by adding James Foster, of Montgomery (Ala.). Foster has just finished his sophomore season and is not yet rated.

Christmas comes early for Chris Petersen. The Washington Huskies finish at 7-6, and they land Jacob Sirmon of Bothell (Wa.). This is a celebrated get for the Huskies after missing local five-stars Max Browne and Jacob Eason in previous years.

And Auburn has added Joey Gatewood, a massive 6’5, 230-pound prospect. Gatewood’s throwing is a work in progress, but his size and athleticism are a good fit for the Tigers’ spread-option attack.

February 2016: USC makes its move

Ten weeks after Washington got its man, USC lands QB Matt Corral, of Westlake Village (Calif.), beating UCLA and Texas A&M. Corral is considered a five-star QB, and some believe he could be the best in the country.

May 2016: Notre Dame strikes gold

Notre Dame has gone to the historic land of QBs, Western Pennsylvania. Phil Jurkovec, of Gibsonia (Pa.) is rated as the No. 1 dual-threat in the country, a five-star, and the No. 9 overall player. A May visit to South Bend sealed the deal, so Alabama, Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Tennessee, Penn State, UCLA, and Pitt will look at other options.

Jurkovec is an an excellent athlete on the gridiron and basketball court, and should have time to develop at Notre Dame behind former blue-chip QBs DeShone Kizer and Brandon Wimbush. Urban Meyer had been personally recruiting him, but will now likely have to turn the heat up on Georgia QB Emory Jones. Jurkovec has great size, at 6’5, 200 pounds at the end of his sophomore season.

A lot of schools are still figuring out who to offer, which is fine, considering the class of 2018 will not sign for another 20 months.

June 2016: Kentucky lands a QB with interest from big programs

The summer is always a popular time for quarterbacks to commit, as they attend camps at schools and work with potential future position coaches. Many schools will not accept a commitment unless the player comes to camp.

Kentucky adds Jarren Williams over offers from USF, Colorado, WVU, and Houston. Out of Lawrenceville (Ga.), Williams has good size at 6’3, 205, and excellent athleticism. Getting Williams’ commitment after losing 2017 QB Mac Jones to Alabama reduces the sting.

It’s 592 days until National Signing Day 2018, but Kentucky fans are optimistic about holding onto Williams. Florida State, Florida, and other top schools want him to come to camps, where he could potentially earn committable offers. But Kentucky isn’t waiting. This could also signal a shift in Kentucky’s offense toward using more quarterback mobility than in a typical air raid attack.

July 2016: Stanford and Ohio State strike in the Southeast

Wake Forest gets a big pledge from three-star Sam Hartman, the No. 17 pro-style QB for 2018. There is always risk that things could change if bigger schools come along.

Gunnar Holmberg of Wake Forect (NC) commits to Duke, his only FBS offer. We’ll see if there are any other that come his way. Duke is not a premiere program, but a Duke offer comes from David Cutcliffe, whose eye for QBs is well-respected.

Jack West, a four-star from Saraland, Ala. commits to Stanford over some big-time offers from Alabama, Auburn, Michigan, and Louisville.

West, who told SB Nation during the Under Armour Future 50 event that his favorite quarterback growing up was AJ McCarron, is an Alabama kid. But Alabama’s 2017 class has two quarterbacks, Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones, in addition to a potential true-freshman starter, Jalen Hurts, and other QBs on scholarship.

The path to playing at Stanford is more clear. Stanford has now landed commitments from Southeastern QBs in consecutive classes, with West joining 2017 QB Davis Mills of Atlanta.

It’s not clear who Alabama will pursue, but the Southeast is loaded in 2018.

Arkansas landing Connor Noland is big for Bret Bielema, keeping the top-10 QB in-state. He picked the Razorbacks over out-of-state offers including Penn State, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss. Noland, from Greenwood, has committed to play both baseball and football.

After missing on Jurkovec, Ohio State rebounds as Emory Jones, 2018’s No. 2 dual-threat, commits to Ohio State over Tennessee and Georgia after attending a Buckeye camp. We’ll see if Jones, from Franklin, Ga., will keep his commitment to play away from home.

Tennessee and Georgia are still in play for another big-time QB from north of Atlanta by the name of Trevor Lawrence — who is regarded by many as the best player in the country overall.

August 2016: Oklahoma goes to Cali

Oklahoma lands the nation’s No. 5 pro style QB in Cameron Rising, though he held offers from Michigan, LSU, UCLA, and Alabama. The Sooners make Rising, a native of Newbury Park, Calif. feel at home and a true priority.

Three-star Dejuan Ellis commits to Virginia Tech over Maryland. He isn’t yet ranked, but he’s been a known recruit since he was in middle school.

Cade Fortin commits to Texas A&M over Louisville, Oklahoma State, UNC, and West Virginia. Oklahoma State still has options like Tanner Mordecai, Casey Thompson, and Spencer Sanders. Considering Fortin’s from Suwannee, Ga., his recruitment could become interesting if Georgia starts recruiting him hard. But at this point, Georgia has targets higher.

And Colson Yankoff, of Couer d’Alene (Idaho), picks Oregon over Utah, Duke, and Washington State, among others. The four-star has good size and is athletic, but the competition he faces in Idaho is rather suspect.

Thirteen of 65 Power 5 schools have secured a QB commitment, more than a year and a half before Signing Day 2018.

Sept. 2016: Teams continue to evaluate options as high school and college seasons begin

Arizona’s first commitment comes from quarterback Jamarye Joiner, a local who announced shortly after he was offered.

Oct. and Nov. 2016: Oklahoma State and Cal make moves

Oklahoma State lands four-starSpencer Sanders away from his home-state schools of Baylor and Texas Tech. It comes seven weeks after losing out on Cade Fortin to Texas A&M. Sanders, a 6’2, 190-pounder, is the No. 29 prospect out of the state and the No. 8 dual-threat in the class.

Three-star Adrian Martinez commits to Cal despite offers from Utah, Washington State, and Colorado. The No. 15 dual-threat, from Fresno, Calif, is a solid pickup.

December 2016: Penn State and Clemson pick superstars from the Peach State

Texas hires coach Tom Herman, who played his college football at Cal Lutheran University. So did Nicko Rising, the father of Oklahoma QB commit Cam Rising. Will Texas be able to get in on Rising’s recruitment?

Penn State head coach James Franklin is able to land four-star quarterback Justin Fields. The Tennessee staff recruited the Kennesaw. Ga., native hard, but the edge goes to the Big Ten champs.

Georgia is still expected to pursue Fields, depending on where things fall, as the Bulldogs wait on Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall recruit nationally.

Three-star pro-style prospect Jason Whitaker commits to Northwestern’s 2018 class over fellow Big Ten schools Wisconsin and Indiana.

Colson Yankoff’s commitment to Oregon was short-lived, lasting less than six months. After the Ducks fired head coach Mark Helfrich, Yankoff steps back. Since his June commitment, Yankoff has added offers from Tennessee and Nebraska. TCU, Baylor, North Carolina, Oregon State, Missouri, Cal, Washington, and others join after he backs off his pledge.

Shortly before Christmas, a huge domino falls, as five-star quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 player overall, has picked Clemson. Lawrence has it all: size, arm, release, accuracy, instincts, and athleticism. While the Tigers do have a commitment from 2017 five-star QB Hunter Johnson, who is set to enroll to start the spring semester, Lawrence is viewed as a superior prospect.

In fact, Lawrence is regarded by many as more talented than any QB recruit in the class of 2017, even though Lawrence is a year younger than the class ahead of him. If Deshaun Watson turns pro, the Tigers will have a lot of options to continue his legacy. Out of Cartersville, Ga., Lawrence is a major win in the Peach State, a key stronghold for the Tigers.

Georgia is still expected to recruit Lawrence. However, this could be tricky, with Jacob Eason entrenched as the starter and 2017 four-star Jake Fromm set to enroll. It’s possible that this commitment allows Georgia to focus on flipping Jones or Fields from OSU or Penn State, respectively.

But Lawrence is the No. 1 prospect and lives just 80 miles from campus, so the Bulldogs will likely keep recruiting him. Georgia has to assess how committed Lawrence is to Clemson, and compare his commitment to those of Fields and Jones. Losing top Peach State QB Watson to Clemson in 2014 stung, and losing Lawrence would be a similar gut punch.

Another quarterback who went out-of-state is San Marcos (Calif.) four-star Jack Tuttle, whocommits to Utah over Washington State, Wisconsin, and Arizona State. The Utes made Tuttle a big priority.

Who would’ve thought that Vanderbilt would end up with 2018’s No. 11 pro-style quarterback? Well, Allan Walterspledged to the Commodores. The Highstown, N.J., native picked Vandy over Rutgers, Michigan, Alabama, Louisville, Texas A&M, and West Virginia.

Three-star Colorado QB Blake Stenstrom commits to Colorado, his only offer. Strenstrom is the son of former Stanford and NFL quarterback Steve Stenstrom.

Jan.-Feb. 2017: New names emerge as Miami shows faith in an intriguing, but inconsistent talent

James Foster, who committed to North Carolina back in Nov. 2015, has decommitted. Missouri is considered the top contender.

Brennan Armstrong, a three-star from Shelby, Ohio, is the first quarterback for what will be P.J. Fleck’s first full class. Armstrong picks the Gophers over Virginia and North Carolina.

Four-star Artur Sitkowski has committed to Miami over South Carolina, UNC, Florida, LSU, Tennessee, and UCLA. Florida was considering him, but they have quarterbacks higher on the board.

This is a bit of a gamble for the Hurricanes, but one that could pay off. Sitkowski has a great frame, has a big arm, and is athletic. But many schools are playing wait-and-see with him, wanting to get him into camp this summer and see how he does this fall.

The reason? Sitkowski, who announced his transfer to powerhouse IMG Academy from New Jersey in December, had a rough junior season. He threw for just 1,190 yards and had five touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

Michigan State lands three-star Theo Day roughly one month after extending an offer. Day picked the Spartans over Minnesota and Western Kentucky.

Virginia Tech head coach Justin Fuente adds his second quarterback to his 2018 class in four-star Quincy Patterson. The Chicago, Ill. prospect picks the Hokies over Mississippi State, NC State, and Illinois. Given Dejuan Ellis’ pledge to Virginia Tech, we’ll see if both end up signing with the Hokies.

A major name is emerging on the West Coast: Dorian Thompson-Robinson. From Bishop Gorman in Las Vegas, he hasn’t been a starter, but was the backup to star 2017 QB Tate Martell, who signed with Ohio State.

“DTR” tells SB Nation that he knows Michigan and UCLA will make his final group, whenever he pares it down. He is also excited about a recent Florida State offer.

March-April 2017: Committed stars are visiting other schools?

Justin Fields, whose Penn State commitment is one reason the Nittany Lions’ 2018 class is rated so highly, impresses in the Nike Regional Camp in Orlando.

Quarterback Justin Fields seems like he’ll be one of the darlings of recruiting. He drew rave reviews at Nike’s regional recruiting camp last weekend in Orlando, where he measured in at 6’3 and ran a 4.51-second 40-yard dash.

Fields, who is also a baseball star, is seeing his stock rocket, and is now considered the No. 1 dual-threat and the No. 2 overall QB.

While Fields maintains he is committed to Penn State, other schools, including Florida and Florida State, are turning up the heat on the Southern prospect.

Jack Tuttle looks great at the Los Angeles Nike Opening Regional, leaving many believing that the Utes got the jump on Pac-12 rivals by going all-in to secure his commitment early.

Four-star Colson Yankoff, the former Oregon commit,picks Washington despite Chris Peterson already having a verbal from Jacob Sirmon. We’ll see if both end up signing with UW, but our guess would be that one of them wavers. With Yankoff off the market, Nebraska, TCU, and Cal have to turn to other options.

Wyatt Rector, a three-star out of Leesburg, Fla., commits to Virginia, his only listed offer. Rector reportedly was told by UVA coaches that he shared physical characteristics of former 6,000-yard BYU quarterback Taysom Hill, whom the staff coached in Provo.

Another three-star that commits to his first offer is Coran Taylor, from Peoria, Ill, who jumps on Illinois. He led his Periora team to a Class 5A State Championship.

NC State’s Devin Leary is the first quarterback for the Wolfpack’s class. He committed over West Virginia, Wake Forest, and Maryland. The four-star from Sicklerville, N.J. tells 247Sports that head coach Dave Doeren’s staff won him over.

The nation’s No. 13 dual-threat, four-star Tyler DeSue, commits to Maryland over UCF and NC State. With Leary committing to NC State, UCF recruited DeSue hard. Instead, his verbal is to the Terps, who could have their second blue-chip QB signee in two years.

One of new Texas coach Tom Herman’s biggest commits comes from four-star Casey Thompson, who has committed to the Longhorns. While Thompson did have big offers like Miami, Ohio State, Oklahoma, and Penn State, it’s unclear how many would still have accepted his commitment, given that they all have taken a QB. North Carolina was pursuing him strongly.

Thompson is actually an OU legacy; his father, Charles, played quarterback. But the nation’s No. 7 dual-threat is a great fit for Herman’s offense.

Emory Jones, from just outside Atlanta, maintains he is “110 percent” committed to Ohio State. But he tells SB Nation that he plans to visit Florida, Florida State, and Alabama. He also took a secret visit to Georgia, the news of which he was hoping would not get out.

"I did visit Georgia, but it wasn't supposed to get out," Jones said. "I went on a Friday and stayed until Sunday. I just wanted to hang out and talk some football with Coach [Jim] Chaney and chill with some of the players and Coach [kirby] Smart."

Jones visiting schools much closer to his home cannot have the Buckeyes feeling great, but that he made a return visit to Columbus in April probably helps.

Justin Fields visits Tallahassee in April after his 7v7 team played a tournament there. The Seminoles and Gators are turning up the heat on the Penn State commit, but the Georgia native made sure to visit Penn State for its spring game and maintains that he is committed.

Three-star James Fostercommits to Missouri over fellow SEC offers from Tennessee and Georgia. Foster, a native of Montgomery, Ala., was Barry Odom top quarterback target. Foster was committed to UNC from Nov. 2015 until his decommitment late last year.

Having missed out on several targets, Tennessee has landed QB Michael Penix, of Tampa Bay. Penix is an intriguing lefty who may have become an option for in-state schools. Miami already has a commitment, and Florida and Florida State have higher priorities.

Remember how we noted a few months ago that Oklahoma QB commit Cameron Rising’s dad played at Cal Lutheran just a few years apart from Texas coach Tom Herman? Well, the four-star Newberry Park (Calif.) QB has flipped his commitment to Texas.

“I wanted to be sure so I visited more schools and even returned to Oklahoma for their spring game. Again, Oklahoma came out on top. AND THEN I WENT TO TEXAS and got that feeling Coach Smith told me about. I could feel the energy throughout the entire program — the coaches, players, recruits and fans. I want to be a part of building something special, something historic and know that Texas is the place for me.”

This is a major strike in the rivalry, even if Rising might not be as good of a fit for Herman’s offense as fellow UT commit Casey Thompson. But Texas only has two scholarship quarterbacks as of April 2017, so getting to four could help cement the position.

Where does Oklahoma turn? Well, the Sooners are trying to flip Texas’ other QB commit, Casey Thompson!

“I’ve been knowing,” Thompson said of Rising’s commitment and whether or not it impacts his pledge to Texas. “Me and the [Texas] coaches have a very good relationship. I knew they planned to take 2 from the jump. Their current QB room is thin!”

Thompson is, after all, an Oklahoma legacy.

In addition, Oklahoma offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley is now following Oklahoma State commit Spencer Sanders on Twitter, though Oklahoma is yet to offer.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson has committed to UCLA over his other finalist, Michigan.

His commitment is well-timed for Jim Mora’s Bruins. They are likely to lose rising junior Josh Rosen to the NFL draft after this season, leaving a hole that’ll need to be filled. Thompson-Robinson will be arriving in Los Angeles just as a spot opens up. He could torment Pac-12 defenses for several years.

Previewing the spring and summer

Where does Michigan turn? Word in the industry is that the Wolverines are willing to accept a commit from Orlando (Fla.) QB Joe Milton, who has been high on Florida and Georgia. Milton has recently visited all three, plus Florida State, which has declined to offer.

Milton is a fascinating prospect, with one of the strongest arms you will ever see, but also major questions about consistency and accuracy.

If Milton can learn to change the speed and arc on his throws to fit the situation and read defenses more quickly, he could be a beast at the college level. But with two consecutive seasons at the high school level under 50 percent completions (46 percent as a junior), that is not a guarantee.

The Wolverines are also involved with Chanler (Ariz.)’s Tyler Shough, a prospect whose stock has skyrocketed thanks to the camp and 7v7 circuits.

Kentucky held Jarren Williams’ commitment for 10 months. They couldn’t hold him for the 20 months between June 2016 and National Signing Day. The Lawrenceville (Ga.) prospect is being pursued by Alabama, Florida, and Florida State, though it is believed the bigger schools want him to come to camp and throw over the summer before accepting a commitment. The decommitment does not come as a surprise, as Williams has visited many schools in April.

And Cal lost its commitment from Adrian Martinez, who is now widely expected to pick Tennessee, which already has a quarterback but may be looking to take two.

As of April 25, 15 of the current top 20 quarterbacks are off the board.

That means if schools want to get a super elite prospect, they will likely need to flip someone like Jones or Fields.

Four-star North Charleston (SC) prospect Dakereon Joyner holds a lot of offers, but only some schools want him as a QB, something he wants to be. Clemson wants him as an athlete. But South Carolina and NC State have offered him to play QB.

Lefty three-star Cammon Cooper is one to watch. Out of Lehi (Utah), Cooper has recently added offers from Georgia and Tennessee and is high on Washington State and Arizona State, he told SB Nation.

Corona (Calif.)’s Tanner Mckee is a large pro-style passer to watch. He has made recent visits to Georgia and Duke, picking up offers.

It looks like a battle between LSU and TCU for Bossier City (La.)’s Justin Rogers. Rogers is an intriguing option who keeps getting better.

Mississippi State looks to be sitting pretty for Sachse (Texas) QB Jalen Mayden. Mayden plans to commit on May 23, and Mississippi State would seem like a fit, as the Bulldogs ask their QBs to run a lot while developing passing skills at their own pace.

Remember, though, that despite quarterback options drying up, there are still nine months until Signing Day.

The evaluation period is just beginning, during which coaches hit the road to visit prospects at their schools during spring practice.

New offers fly out during this period, as do offers to attend summer camps. New prospects emerging and top recruits flipping will make this a fascinating race, and we’ll be updating this diary as often as news breaks.

May 2017 is for a Michigan man

Shortly after returning from its trip to Italy, Michigan indeed landed Milton, an intriguing prospect discussed thoroughly in the March-April section, above. Georgia is still involved with McKee, Fields, and Emory Jones. Florida and Florida State are involved with Fields and Williams, the former Kentucky commit, as is Georgia as of early May. Florida State has also offered Tyler Shough (discussed above).

Wisconsin adds Chase Wolf, and Boston College adds Matt Valeccee.

And industry chatter now suggests that Martinez, the recent Cal decommitment, could be headed to Oklahoma, not Tennessee. But that chatter turns out to be wrong, as Martinez commits to Tennessee just a few days later.

Pitt has also added QB Nick Patti, of Montvale (NJ). And Wisconsin pulled the offer of committed QB Ben Bryant, who was tweeting about his recent offer from Georgia. Because schools cannot comment on unsigned prospects, we do not know both sides of the Bryant story

And Jarren Williams, who decommitted from Kentucky in May, has recommitted. The situation with the bigger offers on the table, like Alabama, Florida, and Florida State, remains unchanged — they want him to throw at their camp before considering taking a commitment.

Mississippi State beats out Baylor, Nebraska and notable others to land Jalen Mayden, a dual-threat passer from Texas. Baylor will pursue Tanner Mordecai, of Texas, and Gerry Bohanon, of Arkansas.

And interestingly, after offers from Florida State and UNC, Tulsa lost QB commitment Jace Ruder, who decommitted. With big offers coming in for the Norton (KS) prospect, there may be a major sleeper in the town of less than 3,000 people.

TCU has landed Justin Rogers, the No. 3 prospect out of Louisiana. It’s a huge pick-up for the Horned Frogs, who will need Rogers by the time he steps on campus in Fort Worth.

You’ve got Kenny Hill and Shawn Robinson, but behind them are Grayson Muehlstein and walk-on Jordan Kitna (along with a few other walk-ons). By the time Rogers gets to campus Hill will be gone, and Robinson will most likely be the starter. Similar to this season, where Robinson enrolled early and was bumped to No. 2 on the depth chart this spring, Rogers will have a good chance, as an early enrollee himself, to jump up the depth chart in spring ball to at least No. 2.

Oklahoma has landed three-star quarterback Tanner Mordecai, who makes for a a solid back-up plan to replace the loss of Cameron Rising.

June brings camp season and movement

The Elite 11 Finals always provide an excellent chance to compare top QBs against one another. But they also bring rumor and resulting drama.

The big bombshell to drop, just shortly after the Finals concluded, is Justin Fields decommitting from Penn State. The move was not unexpected, but was still followed with great interest. The top four teams emerging seem to be Auburn, Florida, Florida State, and Georgia, in no specific order.

Auburn has the Cam Newton connection, as Fields idolizes the former Tigers QB and plays on his 7v7 team, which is sponsored by Under Armour, as is Auburn. If 7v7 was like AAU in basketball recruiting, the apparel company connection might be seen as the most important piece in this recruitment. But football is different, so we’ll wait to see if it matters. Auburn also has a wide open QB room after transfer QB Jarrett Stidham leaves in a year or two.

Florida, having just accepted a transfer from QB Malik Zaire may offer the most immediate playing time, especially if class of 2016 QB Feleipe Franks is not developing as fast as UF would like. And Fields is a better prospect at the same age than Franks.

Florida State has Jimbo Fisher, the coach among the four schools with the clear best track record for developing quarterbacks, and has some room given that 2015 signee De’Andre Johnson and 2016 signee Malik Henry are no longer with the program.

And Georgia is the in-state school, which cannot be ignored, but it has signed five-star QBs in back-to-back years, so playing time might be the toughest in Athens. His sister has also committed to play softball for Georgia.

Fields took his time in making the decision to decommit, so it’s a good bet that he will take some visits before making a new commitment, though I’d expect it before the end of summer.

Where will Penn State turn after losing Fields? The two obvious candidates are NC State commit Devin Leary, of New Jersey, and Virginia Tech commit Quincy Patterson, of Chicago. New Jersey is a traditional stronghold for Penn State.

What about Alabama? Folks with whom I spoke at Elite 11 believe Alabama is trying to flip USC commit Matt Corral and Utah commit Jake Tuttle. The key to getting any West Coast kid to leave California and come to the deep South is to get him on campus for multiple visits.

And keep an eye on Oregon with Colson Yankoff. Yes, the Yankoff who decommitted from the Ducks and flipped to Washington after Mark Helfrich was fired. Oregon is still pursuing him aggressively.

Louisville has added an intriguing player in Jordan Travis, of Palm Beach (Fla.). Travis was starting to pick up interest from some more Power 5 schools.

North Carolina has received a commitment from Tyler Shough. He verballed to the heels over Michigan. The four-star is the No. 10 pro-style QB in the country.

Matt Corral has decommitted from USC, and the five-star is officially on the market. It’ll be interesting to see which schools will go after the Cali native in the coming months, and if the rumors about Southeastern QBs showing increased interest are true.

Corral and fellow five-star Justin Fields spoke at The Opening Finals about similar schools that are recruiting the two, including Florida, Georgia, Auburn, Alabama, and Florida State. The two have upcoming visits to the schools on the horizon, which should clear things up in terms of where they end up. Both also said that the two having the same offers doesn’t bother them, as well.

July sees new commits, visits

Justin Fields has made good on his word from The Opening, visiting all of his top schools since returning home. His most recent visits were to Florida State, and Florida.

The Fields race is now down to Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Georgia, and potentially USC, as the Florida Gators took a commitment from Matt Corral, a fellow five-star who was down to Georgia and Florida. Most seem to be picking Georgia or FSU as the landing spot for fields.

Florida desperately needs a good quarterback, so it’s a smart move to take Corral and not wait around to see what Fields does, as Georgia is believed to be doing. Georgia has the luxury of doing so after signing elite prospects in Jacob Eason and Jake Fromm in back-to-back years.

Meanwhile, the recruiting world waits to see if Fields will commit before his senior season begins, or if he will wait to take some official visits.

A slow August and September

Given the start of fall camp for both high schools and colleges, few visits are being taken, nor are commitments being given.

• Kentucky QB commit Jarren Williams is still solidly committed to the Wildcats, but is still listening to LSU and South Carolina.
• Stanford and Alabama are looking like top options for QB Tanner McKee, who will take a Mormon mission for two years before enrolling.
• Justin Fields has still not decided on his college choice, as we speculated that he would not before his senior season.

The biggest Domino falls

In early October, Georgia landed Justin Fields, the most coveted recruit in the country. The momentum built by Kirby Smart’s program, and distance from home helped Georgia get his pledge. Georgia is now absolutely loaded at the QB position, with three five-star types either on campus or committed. It will be interesting to see how Georgia handles Fields with Jake Fromm and Jacob Eason already on campus.

Fields picked Georgia over Florida State, Alabama, Auburn, and LSU. Alabama is showing increased interest in Jarren Williams, the Kentucky commitment. Ohio State is as well, according to Williams, despite having a commitment from Emory Jones.

Oregon also took advantage of distance, program momentum, and a poor start by UNC to flip Tyler Shough, an Arizona native, to the Ducks.

All rankings via the 247Sports Composite at time of writing unless otherwise specified.

Justin Fields, the No. 1 QB recruit in the country, is off the board.

The SB Nation College Football Recruiting Podcast returns with another episode. You can subscribe to the show on on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) or Google Play Music.

The show rundown is as follows. A direct link to listen can be found here.

• Commits: QB Justin Fields (UGA), QB Tyler Shough (flip UNC to Oregon), DB Houston Griffith (FSU), and a pair of defensive ends to Mississippi State in James Williams and Jaden Crumedy.
• Hot seat: Bret Bielema at Arkansas (Arkansas at Alabamama this week), Butch Jones at Tennessee with a new QB controversy (hosts South Carolina this week). Are LSU’s Orgeron (hosts Auburn) and Texas A&M’s Sumlin (at Florida) in better spots now? Nebraska’s Mike Riley got blown out at home by Wisconsin.
• Uniforms: Florida alternate uniforms, UCF uniforms (actually good!)
• Miami-Florida State talk! Swag being exciting again — but in a very mark Richt Way. Jimbo Fisher issue: If you play at the 121st pace/tempo in the nation, you cannot throw away the precious possessions you have.
• Who would be your playoff right now? Who do you think will be in the final playoff? Big 12 two-loss champion is 70 percent according to ESPN stats and info. Can a two-loss Big 12 champ get in? Notre Dame issue? Washington and Wisconsin need to go undefeated? Can the SEC get two in given the weakness of the bottom 10 teams in the league?
• Vegas lines: Oklahoma -8 vs. Texas, Virginia -3.5 at UNC (UVA has a really good chance to make a bowl, UNC is collapsing), Texas Tech at WVU -3.5, Michigan -7 at Indiana, TCU -6 at Kansas State, FSU -7 at Duke, Utah at Southern Cal -13, Michigan State -4 at Minnesota, and Georgia Tech at Miami -5.

Let’s pick out some wagers for a deep Week 7 of college football.

All wagers at -110 odds unless otherwise noted. My picks are in bold, with that team’s spread attached. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.

Season record: 53-45. Last week I went 11-10, despite losing yet another underdog wager that went to overtime (Kansas State vs. Texas).

I’ll be glued to the TV for the noon and 3:30 ET showings. But what an awful slate of night games we have this week. It would be a good time to do something other than watch football. Pay attention to whom teams have in Week 8 — there are several look-ahead spots to avoid.

Saturday

1. Auburn -6.5 at LSU: I rarely lay points on the road, but I do not believe LSU can block Auburn.

2. Texas Tech at West Virginia -3.5: The Mountaineers were game last weekend against TCU and should get the home win here.

3. Oklahoma -8 vs. Texas: Was Oklahoma looking ahead to this game when it was upset by Iowa State? I suspect so, and that the Sooners will score too many points for the Longhorns.

4. Washington at Arizona State +17.5: Arizona State as a large home dog has been a strong angle under Todd Graham.

5. New Mexico +2 at Fresno State: I believe the wrong team is favored. New Mexico’s rushing offense is really good.

6. Tulane at FIU +14: The Panthers can play some decent defense, and as much as I like Willie Fritz’ Green Wave squad, this is a lot of points to be giving on the road.

7. UCLA at Arizona +2.5: Why in the world is Arizona a home underdog, coming off an upset of Colorado?

8. NC State -10.5 at Pitt: The Wolfpack have been good to me this year and are on extra rest, having played last Thursday. Additionally, there is no look-ahead situation for NCSU since its bye is next week.

9. Texas A&M +3 at Florida: Florida’s defense is allowing 5.1 yards/carry to running backs and has yet to see a QB who can run like Kellen Mond.

10. Northwestern -3 at Maryland: Northwestern can shut down the run and make the opponent throw. Maryland cannot throw.

11. Coastal Carolina +18 at Arkansas State: I figured this would be a spread under two touchdowns.

12. Northern Illinois -5 at Buffalo: Buffalo is having all sorts of issues throwing the football and shouldn’t be able to keep up with the Huskies.

13. Boise State +7 at San Diego State: Boise State does a good job of limiting big plays, while San Diego State lives on big plays.

14. Michigan State at Minnesota +4.5: Getting up for this one could be tough for the Spartans after upsetting the Wolverines.

15. Arkansas +31.5 at Alabama: Alabama was laying this many against Ole Miss, which is a lesser team than Arkansas. The Hogs were the victims of three defensive touchdowns last week, making their scoring margin against South Carolina a little deceptive.

16. Missouri +30.5 at Georgia: This is just a ton of points for Georgia to lay.

17. Middle Tennessee State at UAB +6: UAB is sneakily not terrible in its first year back in the FBS.

18. UConn +10 at Temple: Temple should not be trusted to lay double digits against anyone.

19. Akron +14.5 at Western Michigan: The Zips are not quite as bad as people think, and WMU just played an exhausting, seven-overtime game.

20. Florida State at Duke Under 44.5: Florida State is without several of its top offensive players, and Duke is without its left tackle, who has started for three seasons.

21. UNLV +7.5 at Air Force: Air Force is coming off a really tough game against rival Navy.

The Crootletter is your source for recruiting scoop, trends, and analysis.

After a long lull of commitments in September, things are beginning to pick up in October. Over the weekend, Texas and Auburn each grabbed a verbal commitment from an elite defender.

Auburn struck first, gaining a commitment from defensive tackle Conyis Miller Jr. Out of Birmingham (Ala.) Jackson-Olin, Miller is rated four-stars on the 247Sports Composite, and the No. 15 defensive tackle nationally. He has been selected to the Under Armour All-America Game.

Miller is a hair shy of 6’2, and a solid 300 pounds. He wins with leverage, getting under the pads of opposing blockers. And he has the ability to penetrate into the backfield with his quickness. Auburn’s defense consistently wins with defensive linemen making plays, and Miller fits the mold. He also claimed offers from Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, and Michigan.

Auburn now has the No. 18 class nationally, but with just 14 players committed, it is sure to rise come National Signing Day.

The Texas Longhorns followed up by adding D’Shawn Jamison, a four-star cornerback out of Houston (Texas) Lamar High School. Jamison is not the biggest player at 5’10 and 174 pounds, but he makes up for it with good top-end speed, elite quickness and agility, and excellent instincts. In a league that pitches the ball around as much as the Big 12, Jamison is a much needed commodity for the Texas defense.

Texas now has the No. 2 class in the nation, with 15 four- or five-star players. Getting Texas back to its early ‘00s level of recruiting is exactly what the Longhorns hired Tom Herman to do.

Quickly

• Oklahoma State landed three-star defensive tackle Israel Antwine on Sunday.
• Tennessee lost to South Carolina, then lost running back Lyn-J Dixon to a decommitment.
• Tuesday night, I’ll be watching Fort Myers (Fla.) Dunbar face off against Naples (Fla.) Immokalee. Both schools have produced great players, and there are more than a handful of future Power 5 players, including Tennessee commit Shocky Jacques-Louis.
• Nebraska hiring an athletic director the day after Nebraska lost 56-14 at home to Ohio State can’t be great news for Mike Riley, right?

• Did you see that Arkansas coach Brett Bielema’s buyout is actually about $5M, not the $15M previously thought? Bielema is now 10-25 at Arkansas in league play, and 10-17 after the 0-8 inaugural season of 2013.

The Crootletter profiles how Tom Herman is taking Texas recruiting to the next level.

Update 10/16/2017: D’Shawn Jamison has committed to Texas. The Longhorns now have seven of the top ten players in Houston committed, and the No. 2 recruiting class nationally.

Original: August 2017

I’m back from my vacation and ready to resume sending the Crootletter. There is a new No. 2 recruiting class in the country on the 247Sports Composite: the Texas Longhorns.

Tom Herman is not playing around. Texas has 17 verbal commitments, and 13 of those are rated four- or five-stars. That’s an absurd ratio. The Longhorns have the top four committed prospects in Texas (Nos. 2-5), and six of the top eight. That is some serious in-state dominance. Seventy-five percent of Texas’ high school commits are from the state.

The most recent additions are defensive tackle Keondre Coburn and tight end Malcolm Epps. At 6’0 and 329 pounds, Coburn is built like a fire hydrant and plays with quickness and leverage. Epps is a 6’5, 218-pound receiving tight end.

Oh, and Coburn and Epps are from, you guessed it, Houston. This is a traditional Texas A&M stronghold on the recruiting trail. But Herman was the coach at the University of Houston and knows the area well. Tom Herman is raiding Harris County with no regard for Texas A&M’s feelings. Of the top 10 recruits in the greater Houston area, six are committed to the Longhorns, compared to just three for the Aggies.

Ohio State is seen as the favorite to land Anthony Cook, the No. 1 player in Texas, but if not the Buckeyes, then the Longhorns seem like the most likely Plan B.

Texas is also an extremely strong favorite for Houston four-star cornerback D’Shawn Jamison.

There is no other way to say this: Tom Herman is recruiting the type of talent that wins national titles.

In 2014, eight of the 23 prospects Texas signed were rated four- or five-stars. In 2015, it was 14 of 28. In 2016, 16 of 28. And in 2017, seven of 18. All told, that comes to 45 four- and five-stars signed over the last four classes out of 97 total prospects, or 46 percent. The Longhorns are on pace to sign a much better class than any they have inked in the last five seasons.

The Big 12 needs Texas and Oklahoma to be aces. The league’s recent situation, where good B-level programs like TCU, Baylor, and Oklahoma State try to replace the elites who just haven’t been playing like elites, is reminiscent of the ACC a decade ago. Virginia Tech, Boston College, and others just are not substitutes for Florida State, Miami, and Clemson playing at truly elite levels.

At least on the recruiting trail, Texas and Oklahoma are both getting back to the truly elite levels needed to contend for the biggest prize in college football. The Big 12 should be excited about that.

Quickly

• Rocky Top Talk says most of Butch Jones’ sayings are fine, but not the ones that dismiss a lack of championships.
• I love the commitment of four-star Kevin Austin to Notre Dame. Austin has good size at 6’3 and 190 pounds, catches the ball, and is smart. He has one of the highest floors in the receiver class, and I’d be shocked if he busts.
• Penn State added two elite defensive tackle commitments in four-star Aeneas Hawkins and four-star P.J. Mustipher. What a week! Penn State now has the No. 4 class in the nation and legitimate staying power in the top 10. Penn State’s recruiting board looks good.
• 6’7, 330+, with agility? Yeah, Oklahoma fans should be happy to have Darrell Simpson.
• Florida State added a big hitter in linebacker Rosendo Louis, beating out Miami.
• Georgia added a major playmaker in receiver Elijah Moore.

The 6’1 speedster is closely monitoring the hot seat status of Butch Jones.

IMMOKALEE, Fla. — Without its QB due to injury, Ft. Myers (Fla.) Dunbar High School took a tough district loss to Naples (Fla.) Immokalee Tuesday night, 30-23, in a game that was rescheduled to a Tuesday due to Hurricane Irma.

Afterwards, senior receiver Shocky Jacques-Louis, a Tennessee commit, addressed the team, saying he was proud of their effort, and that they needed to keep grinding for a rematch against Immokalee in the playoffs. He had three catches for 50 yards on the night as Dunbar was forced to use a receiver as a replacement QB.

Following his speech, the three-star receiver spoke about his recruitment.

“To be honest, I’m still committed to Tennessee, but I am definitely looking at other options due to, uh, certain situations at Tennessee,” Jacques-Louis said.

“The situation” is head coach Butch Jones being squarely on the hot seat after a 3-3 start to the season. Jones is 14-21 in SEC play as Tennessee’s head coach.

“Coach [Butch] Jones, I love him to death, but I’d be a fool to go there and he’ll just end up missing, ya know?”

Tennessee currently has the No. 6 recruiting class per the 247Sports composite, but much of it is on shaky ground, with players decommitting or re-opening their recruitment in recent weeks.

Like many prospects in southwest Florida, Jacques-Louis has a great relationship with Vols’ offensive coordinator Larry Scott, who has recruited the area for years, along with receivers coach Kevin Beard. Jacques-Louis said it’s safe to say that if Scott is still at Tennessee, he’ll be sticking with the Volunteers.

“Yes, of course,” the 6’1, 175-pound speedster agreed, acknowledging Scott is a key piece to his Tennessee recruitment.

Another reason Tennessee remains strong with Jacques-Louis is his good friend and former Dunbar teammate Shanon Reid, a three-star linebacker who signed with the Volunteers in the 2017 class.

“I talk to Shanon all the time,” he said. “He’s one of the major reasons I want to go to Tennessee.”

As a prospect with good grades, Jacques-Louis plans to sign early with the new early Signing Period, and enroll in time for the spring semester. But he won’t sign with Tennessee unless the coaching situation is cemented.

“No, because I talked to multiple people about their situation, how they went to college and thought the coach was going to be there, and the whole thing flipped on them, and they were left playing on the bench, trying to be a practice hero.”

If Tennessee’s situation is not by the time it comes to sign, the playmaker will take his talents elsewhere.

Jacues-Louis recently took an official visit to Michigan on Oct. 7.

“Michigan was lovely,” he said of his recent visit. “I didn’t know it was a committable offer, but Coach [Jim] Harbaugh made it very sure that it was a committable offer. I had plenty of fun, and coach Harbaugh is a really cool due.”

But Kentucky, where he visited on Oct. 23, is recruiting him the hardest.

Jacques-Louis has a strong relationship with coach Darin Henshaw, and was committed to the program between April and June 2017. Hinshaw came to see Jacques-Louis play last week, when Kentucky was off with a bye.

“I’ve always loved Kentucky because they’re the first ones that seen me,” he said. “I went up there, it was still that same love. That’s why I have to show them that respect and keep them in the mix, because they’ve always kept me in the mix.

Jacques-Louis plans to also visit Pitt and Missouri, but is not sure of the dates of those visits.