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College football recruiting: Buying, selling, or holding the top classes

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The College Football Recruiting podcast tackles CFB topics with a recruiting slant.

The SB Nation College Football Recruiting Podcast returns with another episode. You can subscribe to the show on on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) or Google Play Music.

The show rundown is as follows. A direct link to listen can be found here.

Buy/Sell/Hold

Let’s try to peg which direction some of these recruiting classes are going: Alabama, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Miami, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn State, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, and UCLA.

The big visit weekends

  • Penn State: DE Tyreke Smith, S Kwantel Raines
  • Florida State: WR Terrace Marshall
  • Notre Dame hosting USC: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, LB Solomon Tuliaupupu

Are the Pac-12’s playoff hopes USC or bust?

Washington lost as a 15-point favorite at Arizona State, and it has a terrible non-conference schedule. Can the Huskies make it in if they run the table?

Hot seat chatter

Morgan and Bud discuss the coaching fates at Arkansas, Arizona, Arizona State, Auburn, Florida (?), Nebraska, Tennessee, Texas A&M.

Quickly

  • Upcoming commitments: OLB Adam Anderson and TE Mustapha Muhammad.
  • Zamir White got his shoe tossed into the stands.
  • ACC’s bottom is really good: There’s no Rutgers/Illinois/Kansas/Oregon State/Missouri in the ACC. But traditionally, this is not a good thing because the polls don’t reward it. Will the playoff?
  • Close-ish betting lines: Oklahoma State -6 at Texas, UCF -6.5 at Navy, Indiana at Michigan State -7, LSU -7 at Ole Miss, Michigan at Penn State -12.5, USC at Notre Dame -3.5, West Virginia at Baylor +9.5, and Louisville at FSU -6.5.


Which college football teams have already exceeded (or guaranteed they won’t meet) their 2017 win total expectations?

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Did you bet on college football win totals? Check your status here.

Each year, Las Vegas posts prop bets for college football teams’ over/under win totals. Most will take quite a while to decide, as Vegas is quite good and wagers often come down to the final games of the season.

But so far this year, three teams have already surpassed their number, six are right on the number, and six have already lost enough games to hit the under. Plus, 13 teams have had their prop bets canceled, because their schedule is not being played in full due to Hurricanes.

Winners

Congrats to UAB, Cal, and Purdue! Florida International, UL Monroe, South Carolina, North Texas, Syracuse, Buffalo, Maryland, New Mexico State, Marshall, Virginia, and Fresno State are next to join with a win.

Losers

Better luck next year, Tulsa, Missouri, Miami (Ohio), North Carolina, Baylor, and BYU. Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, Ohio State, Louisville, and Pitt are one loss from joining the club.

Below are the numbers for all 130 teams

Odds are from 5Dimes Casino as of mid-August. This chart will be updated weekly.

The 23 best bets for Week 8 of college football, including Notre Dame over USC

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Let’s pick out some wagers for a deep Week 8 of college football.

All wagers at -110 odds unless otherwise noted. My picks are in bold, with that team’s spread attached. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.

Season record: 68-51. A 15-6 Week 7 puts me at 57 percent on the year, which is excellent. I am 21-18 in sides decided by a single score, but within that, 5-8 in those decided by a field goal or less.

Let’s get to Week 8’s bets.

Friday

1. Air Force at Nevada +7: Nevada is getting it together after a rough start.

2. Marshall at Middle Tennessee +3: Last week I went against MTSU at UAB, but this week, I like the value.

Saturday

3. USC at Notre Dame -3.5: USC is quite banged up on the defensive line. Look for Notre Dame to consistently run.

4. Arizona State at Utah -9: I like Arizona State at home catching points, but this is a tough road turnaround. I don’t think ASU’s defense is necessarily for real.

5. Boston College at Virginia -6: This is a bet against BC’s inflated price, coming off its win against Louisville. Virginia’s defense is disciplined.

6. Buffalo at Miami (Ohio) -2.5: Buffalo is undefeated against the spread, and that has to end at some point.

7. Central Florida -7 at Navy: UCF is a covering machine and should continue to roll.

8. Central Michigan at Ball State +3: I am surprised Ball State is not favored in this spot.

9. Coastal Carolina +24 at Appalachian State: Wow, this is a lot of points to lay for App State!

10. Colorado at Washington State -9.5: Colorado was rather lucky to escape Oregon State with a win and now must turn around and head to Pullman. That is a tough travel spot.

11. Fresno State +7.5 at San Diego State: Fresno State can stop the run. San Diego State is not a consistent passing team. This opened at +11.5, but that was five days ago.

12. Georgia Southern at UMass -6.5: Georgia Southern is an absolute mess, and I will look to fade them whenever my numbers support doing so.

13. Indiana +7 at Michigan State: I like Indiana’s ability to score, and Michigan State has played a couple of difficult games in a row.

14. Kentucky at Mississippi State -11: Kentucky has won games in which its win probability was 7, 24, and 17 percent. That does not seem sustainable.

15. LSU at Ole Miss +7.5: Ole Miss has some serious athletes at receiver, whom I believe will put up some points on LSU.

16. North Texas at FAU -3: FAU is starting to catch its rhythm.

17. Pitt +8 at Duke: Pitt’s defense can be beaten by chucking it deep. Duke is one of the worst in the ACC at throwing the ball down the field.

18. Southern Miss +3 at Louisiana Tech: I believe in the Eagles’ defense. They held UTEP under 150 yards last weekend.

19. Temple +7 at Army: I went against Temple last week and won outright with UConn, but in no way should Army be laying a full TD.

20. Tulsa -5.5 at UConn: The situation bothers me a bit, with Tulsa coming off a blowout win over Houston and having to play at SMU next Friday night. But this number is just too short. Perhaps I am a sucker.

21. UAB at Charlotte +7.5: I have been on the UAB bandwagon several times this year, but laying this many points on the road is too rich for my blood.

22. West Virginia at Baylor +9.5: If you wait until game time, you might be able to snag a full 10. I had West Virginia and a win last week, but Baylor regrouping while coming home is a strong play.

23. Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan +3: EMU is an underrated team, in that they are bad, but not like “bottom-30 in college football” bad. If you grabbed the opener of +4, congrats.

Games of the year

A set of wagers I like a lot are those known as “Games of the Year” offerings, in which casinos offer lines on games weeks ahead. Maximum bet sizes are understandably low, but they are interesting nonetheless. Here are the lines for the major playoff contenders.

  • Alabama is favored by 24 hosting LSU and by 11 at Auburn.
  • Clemson is favored by 9 at NC State, by 12.5 hosting Florida State, and by 19 at South Carolina.
  • Georgia is favored by 13.5 vs. Florida, an underdog of 3 points at Auburn, and favored by 7 at Georgia Tech.
  • Miami is favored by 19.5 at North Carolina, by 4.5 hosting Virginia Tech, by 3 hosting Notre Dame, and by 16.5 at Pittsburgh.
  • Notre Dame is an underdog of 4 points at Stanford.
  • Ohio State is favored by 9 hosting Penn State, 20.5 at Iowa, 21 hosting Michigan State, and by 9 at Michigan.
  • Oklahoma is favored by 1 at Oklahoma State, by 4.5 hosting TCU, and by 17 hosting West Virginia.
  • Oklahoma State is favored by 7 at West Virginia
  • Penn State is favored by 7 at Michigan State
  • TCU is favored by 10.5 hosting Texas.
  • USC is favored by 11 at Arizona State, by 14 at Colorado, and by 15.5 hosting UCLA.
  • Washington is favored by 18.5 hosting UCLA, by 2.5 at Stanford, 11.5 hosting Utah, and 11 hosting Washington State.
  • Wisconsin is favored by 14 at Minnesota, and by 7 hosting Michigan.

What stands out to you? Let’s talk about it in the comment section.

Florida and Georgia land top recruits before squaring off

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The Crootletter is your source for recruiting scoop, trends, and analysis.

Finally, commitments are popping again! After a very slow September, October is heating up, with some talented players coming off the board.

On Thursday, Georgia beat out Alabama for the talented Adam Anderson. The outside linebacker doesn’t say much, but he lets his play do the talking. Anderson is a 6’4, 215-pound beast with the frame to eventually be 240 or more. Georgia now has the nation’s No. 1 QB in Justin Fields, No. 1 RB in Zamir White, No. 2 OLB in Anderson, and No. 6 defensive end in Azeez Ojulari. Georgia has the No. 2 class in the SEC, second to the Florida Gators.

Gators get some beef

Speaking of the Gators, Florida got some much-needed help along the offensive line with the commitment of Richard Gouraige. The four-star Tampa Cambridge School prospect is 6’5, 270, and oozes potential. Gouraige is very athletic, and if he can maintain his athleticism while adding weight, he could be a star. Florida beat out Clemson for his commitment.

When Brad Davis was brought in as the newest Florida Gators offensive line coach in the spring, it was thought he would give the program’s recruiting on the line a shot in the arm after the hit-and-miss efforts of outgoing offensive line coach Mike Summers.

Less than a year into Davis’s tenure, that has happened — and offensive lineman Richard Gouraige committing to the Gators on Friday afternoon is the latest evidence.

Michigan put some pro in its pro-style offense

On Friday, Michigan landed four-star tight end Mustapha Muhammad, out of Texas. Muhammad is a versatile tight end, big enough at 235 pounds to line up with his hand in the dirt, but athletic enough to run routes.

Here’s Maize-N-Brew on Muhammad.

Muhammad is the 15th player to commit to Michigan’s 2018 class and is the second-highest rated player right behind OG Emil Ekiyor, according to 247Sports’ Composite Rankings. He is also the second tight end to commit to the Wolverines’ 2018 class, as they already drew a commitment from 3-star tight end Luke Schoonmaker back in July.

A perfect fit for Stanford’s defense

Stanford had a great weekend, adding Thomas Booker, a star defensive end prospect. Booker is from Baltimore’s Gilman School, and is perfect for Stanford’s defense. Stanford asks its ends to play a lot of five-technique, and players who have the length, smarts, and athleticism to do it are not easy to find.

Mountaineers get an excellent lineman

West Virginia landed Blaine Scott, one of the top-20 offensive guards nationally.

The West Virginia Mountaineers have a little bit of a commitment streak going, after a second big time recruit committed to the program. Blaine Scott, an offensive lineman from Portsmouth, OH, announced his commitment to the Mountaineers this evening on Twitter. Scott has been a West Virginia lean since he decommitted from Ole Miss back in the summer, but finally pulled the trigger and made it official today.

Notre Dame commit Paul Moala is underrated

Several of the people I really trust in the recruiting industry lit up this weekend when Paul Moala committed to the Irish. The safety is just a three-star right now, but the Mishawaka (IN) product is having a great senior season. Moala makes plays all over the field, and has a strong build at 6’0, 200.

He joins Derrik Allen as the other safety in this class, but the Irish are still in hot pursuit of Julius Irvin from California as well. The Irish also added Navy safety transfer, Alohi Gilman during the summer, and he will have 3 years of eligibility remaining starting in 2018.

Empty Calories

Pretend you’ve been offered the Nebraska and Tennessee jobs. Which should you take?

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Presenting the cases for each, it’s clear one of the two has a better chance to compete annually.

Today, I’m going to debate myself on which coaching job is better: Nebraska Cornhuskers or Tennessee Volunteers? Neither job is open at the moment; however, coaches Mike Riley and Butch Jones are believed to be squarely on the hot seat, as each team has yet another disappointing season, and the athletic directors who hired them are no longer on the job.

Let’s stipulate that the difference in salaries at both programs is rather negligible.

Nebraska: Nebraska is a much more storied program than Tennessee.

Forty-six conference titles, five national titles (including three in the last quarter century), and three Heisman winners. Both jobs have been down for a while, but Nebraska is the easier sell with its tradition.

Tennessee: You used the word “sell.” Who are you selling? Coaches and recruits.

Remember, neither has any recent success to sell to recruits. None were born the last time we were on top.

There are better players around Knoxville than there are around Lincoln. And the coaches you’ll be selling know this. There’s a reason Nebraska has been down for 20 years now, and unlike Tennessee — which has made bad coaching hire after bad coaching hire — Nebraska’s problem is fundamental: It can’t get players.

The lack of local talent has always been an issue at Nebraska. As SB Nation’s fine Nebraska outlet, Corn Nation, detailed, the lack of recruits within a 500-mile radius is glaring.

And many of Nebraska’s old loopholes have since been closed. Nebraska’s walk-on program, once fueled by “academic” scholarships, is no longer brilliant. No longer can Nebraska fly recruits to campus on a private jet.

Most importantly, Nebraska used to live on partial qualifiers. This isn’t news, but Sports Illustrated’s Tim Layden did an absolutely masterful job of calling his shot in January 1996 in his piece titled Headed for a fall? Nebraska may win another national title, but the days when such a colossus ruled the game are over.

Still, what most threatens Nebraska's championship streak is the Big 12's policy on accepting partial and non-qualifiers under NCAA freshman eligibility guidelines. (A partial qualifier is a prospective athlete who meets only one of two minimum academic requirements — grade point average or standardized test score. The minimums are a 2.0 GPA with a 900 on the SAT or 21 on the ACT; or a 2.5 GPA with a 700 SAT or 17 ACT. A non-qualifier meets neither standard. If a school accepts a partial or non-qualifier, the athlete is ineligible for athletics for one year). On Dec. 20 the Big 12 presidents voted unanimously to limit each school to four partial qualifiers per year (two men, two women) and no more than one in a single sport. Non-qualifiers were excluded entirely.

In the Fiesta Bowl, Nebraska started four partial or non-qualifiers (cornerback Michael Booker, defensive tackle Christian Peter, cornerback Tyrone Williams and defensive end Jared Tomich), and two others, wideout Reggie Baul and outside linebacker Jamel Williams, played almost as much as the starters. According to Nebraska officials there were at least 12 partial or non-qualifiers in the program last fall. "Among elites schools Nebraska is a true haven for partial and non-qualifiers," said the coach of another elite school.

Layden looks smarter with each passing year.

Add to that the fact that Nebraska’s advantage in strength training (the Huskers were the first major program to adopt serious heavy lifting) is now gone.

Oh, and with the move from the Big 12 to the Big Ten, gone are two more Nebraska advantages: 1) the extent to which over-signing was allowed, now mostly cured, and 2) tapping into the recruit-rich state of Texas for players, since Nebraska went from playing two games in the state yearly, plus another at a nearby Oklahoma school, to zero.

Nebraska: Tennessee might be able to get better players, but can’t out-recruit its competition like the Huskers can.

To use a blackjack reference, I’d rather have a 19 to a dealer’s 18 than have a 20 and lose to a 21.

Setting aside the fact that Nebraska has been able to recruit well in California and other out-of-state locales of late, let’s assume that everyone in the Big Ten and SEC has their act together and is operating at peak efficiency.

How many teams that Nebraska faces on a yearly basis would have better players than the ideal version of the Huskers? One? Two? Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan are all in the other division, and on average, Nebraska has to play roughly three of those games every two years.

Within Nebraska’s division, there is not a single team that can recruit with the Huskers if Nebraska makes the right hire. Not Wisconsin. Not Iowa. Certainly not Northwestern, Minnesota, Purdue, or Illinois.

Now compare that to what Tennessee faces. If everyone is operating at peak efficiency, Florida and Georgia are absolutely going to have a decided talent advantage against Tennessee. So too will Alabama, which Tennessee must face every year as its designated SEC West opponent. And potential cross-over opponents like LSU, Auburn, and Texas A&M also out-recruit the Vols on a regular basis.

If you look closely at when Tennessee was at its best, it was a unique and rare combination of Tennessee being on fire and key programs (mostly Alabama and Georgia) being down. There’s a reason for that.

More Nebraska: Tennessee doesn’t measure up when its major rivals are good.

The great and revered Phil Fulmer is considered the recent gold standard at Tennessee. Fulmer won the SEC East in six of his 17 seasons. Yet he had a losing record against almost all of the good SEC coaches during his tenure.

  • He was 5-12 against Florida, going 2-1 against Ron Zook, 0-4 against Urban Meyer, and 3-7 against Steve Spurrier.
  • While he had an 11-6 record against Georgia, he was just 3-5 against Mark Richt.
  • He went 8-2 against Alabama coaches Mike Dubose, Dennis Franchione, and Mike Shula, but just a combined 2-4-1 against Gene Stallings and Nick Saban.
  • If you’re scoring at home, that is a combined record of 8-20-1 against Meyer, Spurrier (at Florida), Richt, Stallings, and Saban (at Alabama).

Tennessee’s best simply doesn’t measure up to the best of the teams it has to play on a yearly basis. Nebraska’s, for the most part, does.

Even more Nebraska: Also, let’s no go overrating the talent around Knoxville.

Knoxville is not in the talented part of Tennessee. It’s surrounded by national forests and mountains. Not much good high school football is played in those parts.

Not much football being played in National Forests

It takes six hours to drive from Knoxville to the talent-rich city of Memphis. And going from Memphis to Knoxville, you lose an hour due to the time zone switch.

Alabama is two hours closer and in the same time zone. Auburn is roughly the same distance from Memphis. Ole Miss is about an hour. The Razorbacks are 90 minutes closer than the Vols. Mississippi State is less than half the distance away, as is Vanderbilt. Missouri and Kentucky are roughly the same distance as the Vols. It is so unfortunate for Tennessee that eight programs within its own conference are as close or much closer to a huge talent base in the Volunteer State.

Nashville, the other major talent spot in the city, is better, but still almost four hours away when accounting for the time change going east.

That’s to say nothing of how Tennessee used to be able to raid North and South Carolina when NC State, UNC, Clemson, and South Carolina were all down, but now has to fight legitimate battles for at least some players from Charlotte, Raleigh, and Greenville.

Still more Nebraska: That also extends to expectations. It’s much easier to win at Nebraska.

If you’re the coach at Nebraska, and you handle your business, you are often going to have a chance to play two or three games to make the College Football Playoff: Wisconsin, the good team you draw from the Big Ten East, and the Big Ten Championship Game. The Big Ten champion is not going to be left out if undefeated, even if it sometimes plays in the weakest division in the Power 5.

Compare that to Tennessee, which routinely has to play at least double the number of games at a talent disadvantage as Nebraska. Good luck getting to the Playoff with that slate.

Finally, some Tennessee: Do you want to win a title or just reach the Playoff?

We’ve seen what happens to teams that reach the Playoff but don’t have enough talent to win it: They get stomped, either in the first round or the second. Oregon couldn’t physically match up with Ohio State. Alabama went 38-0 on Michigan State and dominated Washington. Clemson beat Oklahoma by three scores.

There’s a baseline level of talent needed to win it all. Tennessee has a much better chance of getting to that level, and even if it has the harder schedule, at least it will be battle-tested and have a shot if it does get there.

Making the Playoff, but not having the talent to win it, is a Buffalo Bills sequel. Who wants that tease?

Nebraska: Do you really think either is going to win a national title? What about stability? What about expectations? What about being able to coach at a place for a decade and make $50M?

Let’s be real here. These are top-30-level jobs, but they aren’t top-10-type jobs. They don’t automatically come with serious title expectations.

You can win a lot of games and coach for a long time at Nebraska. The Big Ten doesn’t operate like Tennessee. There’s potential for real stability.

Bo Pelini went 67-27 with the Huskers, which is roughly 10-4 each year. And Pelini is not some amazing coach. Nobody is getting fired at Nebraska for consistently going 10-4 unless, well, you’re a huge jerk. And with the benefit of hindsight, and having gone through the Mike Riley experience, Nebraska almost certainly won’t be firing someone who matches Pelini’s on-field record with a bit more off-field couth.

The Nebraska job asks that its coach consistently dominate most of the Big Ten West, hold his own against Wisconsin, and very occasionally knock off the best from the East in the conference championship game.

Consider quality of life. You can raise your family at Nebraska if you win the West Division more often than not. Your kids can grow up with the same friends through middle and high school. You can be happy, not constantly on the hot seat, and not compared to Georgia, Florida, and Alabama on a daily basis. The chances you get a second contract at Nebraska are so much better.

What if you improve on Jones at Tennessee by a game per season? Instead of averaging 7-5 like Jones, maybe you average 8-4, with one SEC East title, but no conference championship during your five-year deal. Do you really think Tennessee’s boosters won’t be reaching out to the next hot commodity?

Every major program has outsized expectations, but between programs of similar resources, Nebraska’s seem much more realistic. Pick a place where a good job will be recognized as such. Pick Nebraska.

The 20 best bets for Week 9 of college football, including Ohio State over Penn State

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Let’s pick out some wagers for a deep Week 9 of college football.

All wagers are at -110 odds unless otherwise noted. My picks are in bold, with that team’s spread attached. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.

Season record: 83-58 (59%) following a 15-7-1 Week 8. 25 games over .500 is a better year than I expected.

This will be a really fun weekend. And with almost all of the great games at 3:30 p.m. ET, you’ll also be able to watch the World Series.

Friday

1. Tulane +11 at Memphis: Memphis' rushing defense is simply not very good, and Tulane is a well-coached option football team.

2. Florida State -3 at Boston College: The time to bet on Boston College was before the Eagles ripped off consecutive 40-point offensive performances against Power 5 teams for the first time in a decade, not now.

Saturday

3. NC State +7.5 at Notre Dame: I have had a great feel for betting Notre Dame this year, but the Irish have had incredible turnover luck, and the Wolfpack defensive line is awesome.

4. Penn State at Ohio State -6: I love Urban Meyer in big games, especially off a bye. Ohio State's offense has been clicking of late.

5. Tennessee +5 at Kentucky: I know. I KNOW. But Kentucky has been damn near the luckiest team in the country so far, and it just got blasted by Mississippi State by about the same amount that Tennessee lost to Alabama.

6. Buffalo +5.5 at Akron: I think Buffalo is going to win this game outright, so I am taking them with the points.

7. Florida Atlantic -7 at Western Kentucky: FAU put up more than 800 yards last week. That's no fluke. The Owls can score in bunches and cover this number.

8. Missouri -12.5 at UConn: Missouri can put up a lot of points, and UConn is just brutal. I think this is a fight of differing weight classes.

9. UNLV +21.5 at Fresno State: I have successfully bet on Fresno State for back-to-back weekends, but it is time to hop off at this number.

10. New Mexico -1.5 at Wyoming: Bob Davie's team gets off the skid.

11. Mississippi State PK at Texas A&M: Mississippi State has the linemen to stand up to the Aggies in the trenches and can simply outscore Texas A&M on the outside.

12. USC -3 at Arizona State: I've backed Arizona State at home several times this year with great success, but this is such a short price that I cannot pass on the Trojans.

13. Louisiana Monroe at Idaho -3: Gimme the Vandals at home to cover this week, with the Warhawks on a long road trip.

14. Texas at Baylor +9: What about Texas' offense suggests it should be laying more than a touchdown on the road against any Big 12 team other than Kansas?

15. Texas State at Coastal Carolina -7.5: Texas State is clearly overmatched against all FBS opponents this year.

16. Miami at North Carolina +20.5: North Carolina is banged up, but this is just so many points for Miami to lay on the road. It's also a lookahead spot, as the Hurricanes host Virginia Tech next weekend.

17. Appalachian State at UMass +4.5: Appalachian State struggled for a decent part of the game last week against Coastal Carolina and barely beat Idaho.

18. San Diego State at Hawaii +10: This is yet another chance to fade the Aztecs. Will three weeks in a row be too many?

19. UCLA at Washington -17: UCLA's defense is simply not good. UCLA is not a good road team. Washington is off a bye.

20. Oklahoma State -7 at West Virginia: I look for the Cowboys to go up top and beat the Mountaineers. But the lookahead spot to Bedlam next week does bother me.

Ohio State overcame a whole lot to beat Penn State, thanks to J.T. Barrett and this defensive front

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Ohio State showed it was the superior team by winning with less than its A-game.

Ohio State beat Penn State 39-38 Saturday in an absolutely epic comeback. According to one model, the Buckeyes had just a 2.7-percent chance of winning the game with barely over seven minutes left.

But let’s be clear about something: the better team won the game.

There were so many things that went right for Penn State in this game, from perfectly timed pass interference or facemask calls to nullify crucial turnovers or strong defensive plays, to converting third down after third down by just a few scant inches, to Ohio State’s atrocious kickoff coverage, to miracle catches. And yet, Ohio State won.

The Buckeyes outgained the Nittany Lions by 247 yards. But total yards is not always a good stat, due to field position.

So let’s look at yards per play. Ohio State still crushed the Nittany Lions, racking up 7 per play compared to 4.5 for Penn State. That’s 56 percent more. That is domination on a play-to-play basis.

Field position via turnovers and special teams was the major thing that kept this game close. Taking out the kneel-down drives to end the halves, Penn State’s starting field position was 9.5 yards better, on average, over the course of 13 drives. That’s a 124-yard advantage, and essentially a first down better every time the Nittany Lions touched it.

Once Penn State had to run plays, however, it was clear Ohio State was the better team.

Saquon Barkley is amazing, but he wasn’t enough to overcome Ohio State’s talent advantage.

Every time Barkley touches the ball, you have to stop what you’re doing and watch. He had the biggest play of the game on the first play, a 97-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. And his 36-yard touchdown run was an amazing blend of vision, balance, and wiggle.

Saquon Barkley broke of this run, but Ohio State mostly stopped him.

But on his other 24 touches (20 runs, four catches), he had just 31 yards. The reason? Penn State could not block Ohio State. Barkley was consistently hit in the backfield and smothered. Ohio State had 13 tackles for loss.

Barkley might have been the most talented player on the field, but the vast majority of the best players in the game were on Ohio State.

The Buckeyes have one of the most talented defenses in the nation. They made Penn State earn every single yard. Some of Penn State’s best plays were still highly contested.

Eventually, the miracle catches for Penn State ran out. QB Trace McSorley completed just four of his final nine throws, for 50 yards.

I had an evaluator tell me over the summer that Penn State didn’t have a player who could start for Ohio State’s defense. I’m not sure I agree with that, but after watching the Buckeyes today, it’s a point well taken.

J.T. Barrett has had an overrated career, but an awesome afternoon.

I’m guilty of thinking that Ohio State QB Barrett is undeserving of the praise. Quarterbacks are frequently given credit for team wins, even if they were not the driver of those wins. And over the last few years, it seemed that the Buckeyes often won in spite of Barrett.

Early Saturday, Barrett did not look all that good. He was late on some deep shots, and at the half, had thrown it 17 times for just 96 yards, an awful 5.6 yards per pass. Over his career, Barrett has not been a great passer without the benefit of play action. And with the Buckeyes down two or three scores for much of the afternoon, Barrett was being forced to drop back and throw a lot without play action.

And he did it brilliantly. He started hitting throws over the middle, deep throws, and throws of all kinds. And nowhere was he better than down the stretch, finishing 16-of-16 for 188 yards, including three touchdowns, nine first downs, and the game-winner.

J.T. Barrett could not be stopped down the stretch.

I thought Penn State’s defense was much more suspect than its season-long numbers had suggested, but I never thought Barrett, playing from behind, would be the one to expose it. He finished 33-of-39 for 328 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions. And Ohio State had at least two clear drops.

Oh, and he added 95 yards on the ground.

If Ohio State can throw effectively, the Buckeyes are a legitimate title contender.

Ohio State has an amazing front seven. It has a deadly run game. But the passing game has been the weakness for the last few years. If Ohio State and Barrett can throw it anything like this going forward, they will be a team nobody wants to play in the Playoff.

And what’s more, if this keeps up, Ohio State might have one of the better passing games among the Playoff contenders. Think about it: Do Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Notre Dame, Miami, or Wisconsin really throw it better than Ohio State? A few of the Big 12 schools do, as we saw with Oklahoma in Columbus last month, but this isn’t necessarily a year in which a team has to be able to throw for 300-plus to win a Playoff game.

Ohio State still has to play Iowa, Michigan State, and Michigan, but there isn’t a team left on its schedule capable of putting up points in bunches like Penn State can.

And Ohio State just beat Penn State without playing its best game.

If Florida’s able to lose Jim McElwain without paying a big buyout, then the Gators just caught a lucky break

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In football terms, the Gators might have just had the opposing punter fumble the snap in the end zone.

If Florida really does manage to part ways with Jim McElwain on the cheap, it just caught a huge break. Reports broke before and during Saturday’s blowout loss to Georgia that UF was looking into the possibility of firing McElwain for cause, which would mean not having to pay a big buyout due to something that happened beyond on-field team performance.

Then on Sunday, Florida announced McElwain was out. The Gators said “the two parties are currently negotiating terms of separation,” and UF might be succeeding:

Things in Gainesville are not good. Florida’s record sits at 3-4, and the program has little to no momentum.

McElwain was brought in to fix the offense, the primary reason why former coach Will Muschamp was fired. It has improved from 102nd to 105th to 81st in yards per play. In the land where fans grew up on Steve Spurrier, Danny Wuerffel, and Tim Tebow, that won’t cut it. Florida might improve on offense in 2018, but an enormous jump is hard to forecast given the lack of progress.

As McElwain began running out of Will Muschamp’s players, the defense started to show some cracks. Florida’s 2017 rushing defense has already allowed 1,042 yards on just 195 carries by opposing running backs, an average of 5.3 yards per carry.

McElwain’s record when an opponent scores more than 14 points sits at 5-12, and opponents are doing so with increasing frequency.

Meanwhile, division rival Georgia seems to be building the Death Star.

UGA’s copying the Nick Saban model under Kirby Smart, in the way Florida tried and failed under Muschamp and McElwain. Georgia’s recruiting class in 2017 was amazing, and the Bulldogs are primed to bring in another elite class in 2018, including the No. 1 QB in the nation, Justin Fields.

Yet amidst all the signs of the downturn, Florida was in a spot where it really could not fire McElwain for his performance.

He had won the admittedly awful SEC East in 2015 and 2016. Firing a coach who won two division titles in three years is just not done, no matter how uninspiring the product.

The Gators were going to have to sit tight as Georgia continued to put distance between itself and UF.

Except McElwain dropped the ball.

He implied that he and his players had faced death threats, then apparently refused to give UF any further information. The school declared that last part in an official statement, an unusual move. The forcause element could be based on some duty McElwain, as a university employee, might’ve had to report known threats against students (or, perhaps as likely, a duty to not lie about such things in his official capacity).

It’s unclear if Florida decided it’s legally in the clear to fire him for reasons beyond just wins and losses ...

... but it’s also possible that Florida negotiated a lesser buyout.

Now Florida might’ve gotten to part with him on the cheap, then go after a new coach. UF will have a lot of money to spend if it isn’t tied down with paying the former head coach a huge buyout figure.

This almost never happens.

Schools don’t just get to part with their coaches on the cheap, avoid what was sure to be another year of program stagnation, and go after their next targets with extra money.

And when you factor in that Florida is almost certainly going to be the best available job opening, you appreciate the size of the break the Gators might’ve just caught.


The 21 best bets for Week 10 of college football, including a test for No. 1 Georgia

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Let’s pick out some wagers for a deep Week 10 of college football.

All wagers are at -110 odds unless otherwise noted. My picks are in bold, with that team’s spread attached. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.

Season record: 95-66 (59 percent) following a 12-8 Week 8; 29 games over .500 is a better year than I expected.

This will be a really fun weekend. I often bet games that aren’t very fun to watch, and that’s OK. But I do feel compelled to offer some notes on the bigger games I didn’t play, before we get to the bets.

  • I took Oklahoma State last weekend and won at West Virginia, but this spread against Oklahoma seems right on.
  • South Carolina is one of the luckiest teams in college football. Normally, I’d take Georgia to kill the Gamecocks, but this is a major sandwich spot coming off a huge win over Florida, with a trip to Auburn on deck. I do have a play on this game (read below), but it’s not on either team.
  • Wake Forest is in a perfect spot to catch Notre Dame in a sandwich, with the Irish coming off a huge win over NC State and looking ahead to a trip to Miami. But Irish DC Mike Elko knows Wake Forest’s personnel so well, having coached there for the last few years.

Friday

1. Marshall at Florida Atlantic -7.5: No huddle, no mercy. Can Marshall really hang with the Owls' offense?

2. Memphis at Tulsa +12.5: Memphis has burned me before, but a road game on a Friday night laying double digits? I'll fade the Tigers.

Saturday

3. Clemson at NC State Under 51: Two defensive lines that are significantly better than the opposing offensive lines.

4. Arizona at USC -7: I've been successfully on Arizona for a while now, but this price is simply too short for a USC team whose offensive line has been better of late.

5. Auburn -15 at Texas A&M: This one scares me a bit, since Auburn has Georgia on deck. But Auburn has been committed to keeping the pedal down since losing at LSU, and Texas A&M's wins have largely been smoke and mirrors.

6. Baylor -7.5 at Kansas: I expect the Bears to blow out the Jayhawks. Kansas is a much worse team.

7. Coastal Carolina +24 at Arkansas: Arkansas should be winless in SEC play, but has a deceptive win over Ole Miss, and has LSU on deck.

8. Colorado State at Wyoming +3: Wyoming has been playing better of late, and I expect an outright win for the Cowboys.

9. Florida at Missouri -3: Missouri can score some points. Florida's offense is beyond inept.

10. South Carolina at Georgia Under 45.5: I have much more faith in the defenses in this game than the offenses.

11. Georgia Tech -9.5 at Virginia: Virginia has completely cratered in the last two weeks, and I don't think it is reflected in this line.

12. Illinois at Purdue -14: Purdue can score some points on bad defenses, and Illinois simply cannot score.

13. Maryland at Rutgers +3: By my numbers, the wrong team is favored here.

14. Nevada +22 at Boise State: Boise State isn't a bad team, but this is just a ton of points to lay against a Wolf Pack program that can score. I also considered the over.

15. Ole Miss +4 at Kentucky: This is a play on a team that lost close last week and against one that won close last week.

16. Oregon State at Cal -7: Apparently Justin Wilcox can work as a head coach. Who knew?

17. San Diego State at San Jose State +24: San Jose State is terrible, but San Diego State laying 24 on the road seems dangerous to me.

18. Southern Miss +7 at Tennessee: Tennessee's offense is just so bad, and Southern Miss' defense is pretty solid.

19. Stanford at Washington State -2: If Bryce Love is banged up or doesn't play, Stanford has no explosive play capability.

20. Western Kentucky at Vanderbilt -9.5: Vanderbilt needs this game if it is going to make a bowl.

21. Wisconsin at Indiana +13: Wisconsin's offense is just not good enough to lay points like this on the road.

2 big keys to Miami’s impressive win over Virginia Tech

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The Canes dominated the Hokies, 28-10, and put themselves one step closer to playing for an ACC title.

Though they play different styles of defense, the Miami Hurricanes and Virginia Tech Hokies both try to be aggressive with formation and penetration and dare opposing offenses to hit big plays. Neither plays a whole lot of bend-but-don’t-break style.

On Saturday night in Miami, the Hurricanes’ offense wasn’t always pretty, but it did create explosive plays, which is what teams have to do against a Bud Foster Virginia Tech defense.

Miami had 13 plays of 10-plus yards

The Hurricanes had runs of 36, 10, 64, 19, 12, 13, and passes of 17, 24, 18, 20, 18, 43, and 42 yards. Miami also drew two pass interference penalties against the Hokies’ defense.

Travis Homer made the Hokies pay for their overaggressiveness as Miami’s offensive line washed the Virginia Tech defenders further out of position, and the speedy Homer raced 64 yards for the touchdown to put Miami up 14-0.

Six of Malik Rosier’s 10 pass completions went for 18 or more yards. Three were intercepted. It was truly feast or famine.

“In tennis, we call this filling up the stat sheet,” ESPN broadcaster Chris Fowler said, referencing the mixture of aces and unforced errors.

While three interceptions and a QB rating of 128 won’t get it done against a better opponent, it is important to remember that Virginia Tech often makes opponents look ugly, even when those teams are being effective.

Miami’s receivers did a great job blocking for each other. On no play was that more evident than when tight end Chris Herndon took a quick flare and raced 43 yards to the end zone as Ahmmon Richards blocked for him well down the field.

Chris Herndon races for the TD behind some great blocking

Virginia Tech couldn’t create explosive runs

Miami’s defense does a lot of things well under coordinator Manny Diaz. The Hurricanes are third nationally in tackles for loss per game, with 8.89 per contest.

But the downside to all of that aggressiveness has often been allowing big runs. It is hard to be extremely aggressive, mix fronts, and stay gap sound. So far on the season, Miami was 117th in runs of 10-plus yards allowed per game and 115th in runs of 20-plus allowed per game. Considering Miami’s lackluster schedule to date, those are some alarming numbers.

But on Saturday night, Miami found the right mix of aggressiveness and discipline. Virginia Tech did not create a single run of more than 20 yards and had just three of 10 or more. The Hurricanes’ defensive line routinely whipped Virginia Tech up front and forced the Hokies to try and get cute. The angles from secondary pursuit were solid and did not leave opportunities for big gashes.

There was a bit of chicken vs. egg with this. Virginia Tech was forced to pass more than it would have liked, since it got down so early in the game, and Virginia Tech’s passing suffered. Virginia Tech QB Josh Jackson is not a good enough passer at this early stage in his career to threaten defenses consistently without the threat of play action. But with Miami snuffing out the run, Virginia Tech’s run fakes were less effective. Jackson threw the ball 32 times for just 197 yards. Two were intercepted. His receivers did not separate against a Miami secondary that has not always been stellar this season. And he was sacked four times.

Miami is going to get its TFLs, so if the opposing offense fails to gash the Hurricanes for long runs, it will be a long night. The Hokies are now averaging less than five yards per play in ACC competition.

Clinch?

Miami appears to be a lock for its first-ever ACC title appearance. If you could put together a parlay with the four necessary games happening (see below) to Keep Miami out, it would likely pay better than 100-1.

Miami vs. Clemson should be a fun ACC Championship game, particularly if you’re into strong defensive line play.

A different test awaits next week in Notre Dame

Miami is going to need to bottle what it was able to do on defense against Virginia Tech’s run game and sprinkle some steroids on it.

Excluding the service academies, the Irish are the No. 1 rushing offense in the nation. And they are doing it with explosive runs, with 35 on the season of 20 or more yards. Virginia Tech had just seven on the season. Notre Dame is a different animal on the ground.

The thing Notre Dame’s offense does well seems to perfectly exploit the thing that Miami gives up, but seemed to shore up against the Hokies. Can the Hurricanes keep the Irish run game contained in next Saturday’s top-10 game?

Tracking the 2018 quarterback recruiting dominoes as they fall

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What a school or quarterback recruit does impacts everyone else in the race to sign a QB.

Quarterback is the most important position in football. Most college programs want to carry four on scholarship, which means most schools will sign a QB every year.

Typically, only about 20 or 25 are rated four- or five-stars, so demand for elite QBs far outpaces supply. And teams usually do not move on from their No. 1 targets to accept a commitment from another until it is clear that they are out of the running for their first choice. Lesser-rated recruits know this.

Given that teams rarely rotate quarterbacks, a top QB will often want to reserve his spot with the school of his choice. QB is also the noted position of leadership, so a committed QB often become a class’ lead recruiter.

Every year, we track the dominoes as they fall. QB1 picks school A, so School B moves on to QB2 as School C moves on to QB3. But then QB1 decommits from School A, and the cycle is thrown into chaos.

It's like securing a date for prom. Schools must properly assess a prospect's interest, and prospects must not wait too long for offers that never come. Overplaying one’s hand can be as bad as underplaying it.

Winter 2015: The first dominoes

Sometimes, QBs commit so early that the recruiting industry has not caught up to them. Most schools are not going to accept commitments four years in advance, unless they are confident the player will be a special talent.

This cycle, it starts in Nov. 2015, more than two years ahead of Signing Day.

North Carolina has started the 2018 cycle by adding James Foster, of Montgomery (Ala.). Foster has just finished his sophomore season and is not yet rated.


Christmas comes early for Chris Petersen. The Washington Huskies finish at 7-6, and they land Jacob Sirmon of Bothell (Wa.). This is a celebrated get for the Huskies after missing local five-stars Max Browne and Jacob Eason in previous years.


And Auburn has added Joey Gatewood, a massive 6’5, 230-pound prospect. Gatewood’s throwing is a work in progress, but his size and athleticism are a good fit for the Tigers’ spread-option attack.

February 2016: USC makes its move

Ten weeks after Washington got its man, USC lands QB Matt Corral, of Westlake Village (Calif.), beating UCLA and Texas A&M. Corral is considered a five-star QB, and some believe he could be the best in the country.

May 2016: Notre Dame strikes gold

Notre Dame has gone to the historic land of QBs, Western Pennsylvania. Phil Jurkovec, of Gibsonia (Pa.) is rated as the No. 1 dual-threat in the country, a five-star, and the No. 9 overall player. A May visit to South Bend sealed the deal, so Alabama, Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Tennessee, Penn State, UCLA, and Pitt will look at other options.

Jurkovec is an an excellent athlete on the gridiron and basketball court, and should have time to develop at Notre Dame behind former blue-chip QBs DeShone Kizer and Brandon Wimbush. Urban Meyer had been personally recruiting him, but will now likely have to turn the heat up on Georgia QB Emory Jones. Jurkovec has great size, at 6’5, 200 pounds at the end of his sophomore season.

A lot of schools are still figuring out who to offer, which is fine, considering the class of 2018 will not sign for another 20 months.

June 2016: Kentucky lands a QB with interest from big programs

The summer is always a popular time for quarterbacks to commit, as they attend camps at schools and work with potential future position coaches. Many schools will not accept a commitment unless the player comes to camp.

Kentucky adds Jarren Williams over offers from USF, Colorado, WVU, and Houston. Out of Lawrenceville (Ga.), Williams has good size at 6’3, 205, and excellent athleticism. Getting Williams’ commitment after losing 2017 QB Mac Jones to Alabama reduces the sting.

It’s 592 days until National Signing Day 2018, but Kentucky fans are optimistic about holding onto Williams. Florida State, Florida, and other top schools want him to come to camps, where he could potentially earn committable offers. But Kentucky isn’t waiting. This could also signal a shift in Kentucky’s offense toward using more quarterback mobility than in a typical air raid attack.

July 2016: Stanford and Ohio State strike in the Southeast

Wake Forest gets a big pledge from three-star Sam Hartman, the No. 17 pro-style QB for 2018. There is always risk that things could change if bigger schools come along.


Gunnar Holmberg of Wake Forect (NC) commits to Duke, his only FBS offer. We’ll see if there are any other that come his way. Duke is not a premiere program, but a Duke offer comes from David Cutcliffe, whose eye for QBs is well-respected.


Jack West, a four-star from Saraland, Ala. commits to Stanford over some big-time offers from Alabama, Auburn, Michigan, and Louisville.

West, who told SB Nation during the Under Armour Future 50 event that his favorite quarterback growing up was AJ McCarron, is an Alabama kid. But Alabama’s 2017 class has two quarterbacks, Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones, in addition to a potential true-freshman starter, Jalen Hurts, and other QBs on scholarship.

The path to playing at Stanford is more clear. Stanford has now landed commitments from Southeastern QBs in consecutive classes, with West joining 2017 QB Davis Mills of Atlanta.

It’s not clear who Alabama will pursue, but the Southeast is loaded in 2018.


Arkansas landing Connor Noland is big for Bret Bielema, keeping the top-10 QB in-state. He picked the Razorbacks over out-of-state offers including Penn State, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss. Noland, from Greenwood, has committed to play both baseball and football.


After missing on Jurkovec, Ohio State rebounds as Emory Jones, 2018’s No. 2 dual-threat, commits to Ohio State over Tennessee and Georgia after attending a Buckeye camp. We’ll see if Jones, from Franklin, Ga., will keep his commitment to play away from home.

Tennessee and Georgia are still in play for another big-time QB from north of Atlanta by the name of Trevor Lawrence — who is regarded by many as the best player in the country overall.

August 2016: Oklahoma goes to Cali

Oklahoma lands the nation’s No. 5 pro style QB in Cameron Rising, though he held offers from Michigan, LSU, UCLA, and Alabama. The Sooners make Rising, a native of Newbury Park, Calif. feel at home and a true priority.


Three-star Dejuan Ellis commits to Virginia Tech over Maryland. He isn’t yet ranked, but he’s been a known recruit since he was in middle school.


Cade Fortin commits to Texas A&M over Louisville, Oklahoma State, UNC, and West Virginia. Oklahoma State still has options like Tanner Mordecai, Casey Thompson, and Spencer Sanders. Considering Fortin’s from Suwannee, Ga., his recruitment could become interesting if Georgia starts recruiting him hard. But at this point, Georgia has targets higher.


And Colson Yankoff, of Couer d’Alene (Idaho), picks Oregon over Utah, Duke, and Washington State, among others. The four-star has good size and is athletic, but the competition he faces in Idaho is rather suspect.

Thirteen of 65 Power 5 schools have secured a QB commitment, more than a year and a half before Signing Day 2018.

Sept. 2016: Teams continue to evaluate options as high school and college seasons begin

Arizona’s first commitment comes from quarterback Jamarye Joiner, a local who announced shortly after he was offered.

Oct. and Nov. 2016: Oklahoma State and Cal make moves

Oklahoma State lands four-starSpencer Sanders away from his home-state schools of Baylor and Texas Tech. It comes seven weeks after losing out on Cade Fortin to Texas A&M. Sanders, a 6’2, 190-pounder, is the No. 29 prospect out of the state and the No. 8 dual-threat in the class.


Three-star Adrian Martinez commits to Cal despite offers from Utah, Washington State, and Colorado. The No. 15 dual-threat, from Fresno, Calif, is a solid pickup.

December 2016: Penn State and Clemson pick superstars from the Peach State

Texas hires coach Tom Herman, who played his college football at Cal Lutheran University. So did Nicko Rising, the father of Oklahoma QB commit Cam Rising. Will Texas be able to get in on Rising’s recruitment?


Penn State head coach James Franklin is able to land four-star quarterback Justin Fields. The Tennessee staff recruited the Kennesaw. Ga., native hard, but the edge goes to the Big Ten champs.

Georgia is still expected to pursue Fields, depending on where things fall, as the Bulldogs wait on Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall recruit nationally.


Three-star pro-style prospect Jason Whitaker commits to Northwestern’s 2018 class over fellow Big Ten schools Wisconsin and Indiana.


Colson Yankoff’s commitment to Oregon was short-lived, lasting less than six months. After the Ducks fired head coach Mark Helfrich, Yankoff steps back. Since his June commitment, Yankoff has added offers from Tennessee and Nebraska. TCU, Baylor, North Carolina, Oregon State, Missouri, Cal, Washington, and others join after he backs off his pledge.


Shortly before Christmas, a huge domino falls, as five-star quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 player overall, has picked Clemson. Lawrence has it all: size, arm, release, accuracy, instincts, and athleticism. While the Tigers do have a commitment from 2017 five-star QB Hunter Johnson, who is set to enroll to start the spring semester, Lawrence is viewed as a superior prospect.

In fact, Lawrence is regarded by many as more talented than any QB recruit in the class of 2017, even though Lawrence is a year younger than the class ahead of him. If Deshaun Watson turns pro, the Tigers will have a lot of options to continue his legacy. Out of Cartersville, Ga., Lawrence is a major win in the Peach State, a key stronghold for the Tigers.

Georgia is still expected to recruit Lawrence. However, this could be tricky, with Jacob Eason entrenched as the starter and 2017 four-star Jake Fromm set to enroll. It’s possible that this commitment allows Georgia to focus on flipping Jones or Fields from OSU or Penn State, respectively.

But Lawrence is the No. 1 prospect and lives just 80 miles from campus, so the Bulldogs will likely keep recruiting him. Georgia has to assess how committed Lawrence is to Clemson, and compare his commitment to those of Fields and Jones. Losing top Peach State QB Watson to Clemson in 2014 stung, and losing Lawrence would be a similar gut punch.


Another quarterback who went out-of-state is San Marcos (Calif.) four-star Jack Tuttle, whocommits to Utah over Washington State, Wisconsin, and Arizona State. The Utes made Tuttle a big priority.


Who would’ve thought that Vanderbilt would end up with 2018’s No. 11 pro-style quarterback? Well, Allan Walterspledged to the Commodores. The Highstown, N.J., native picked Vandy over Rutgers, Michigan, Alabama, Louisville, Texas A&M, and West Virginia.


Three-star Colorado QB Blake Stenstrom commits to Colorado, his only offer. Strenstrom is the son of former Stanford and NFL quarterback Steve Stenstrom.

Jan.-Feb. 2017: New names emerge as Miami shows faith in an intriguing, but inconsistent talent

James Foster, who committed to North Carolina back in Nov. 2015, has decommitted. Missouri is considered the top contender.


Brennan Armstrong, a three-star from Shelby, Ohio, is the first quarterback for what will be P.J. Fleck’s first full class. Armstrong picks the Gophers over Virginia and North Carolina.


Four-star Artur Sitkowski has committed to Miami over South Carolina, UNC, Florida, LSU, Tennessee, and UCLA. Florida was considering him, but they have quarterbacks higher on the board.

This is a bit of a gamble for the Hurricanes, but one that could pay off. Sitkowski has a great frame, has a big arm, and is athletic. But many schools are playing wait-and-see with him, wanting to get him into camp this summer and see how he does this fall.

The reason? Sitkowski, who announced his transfer to powerhouse IMG Academy from New Jersey in December, had a rough junior season. He threw for just 1,190 yards and had five touchdowns and 10 interceptions.


Michigan State lands three-star Theo Day roughly one month after extending an offer. Day picked the Spartans over Minnesota and Western Kentucky.


Virginia Tech head coach Justin Fuente adds his second quarterback to his 2018 class in four-star Quincy Patterson. The Chicago, Ill. prospect picks the Hokies over Mississippi State, NC State, and Illinois. Given Dejuan Ellis’ pledge to Virginia Tech, we’ll see if both end up signing with the Hokies.


A major name is emerging on the West Coast: Dorian Thompson-Robinson. From Bishop Gorman in Las Vegas, he hasn’t been a starter, but was the backup to star 2017 QB Tate Martell, who signed with Ohio State.

“DTR” tells SB Nation that he knows Michigan and UCLA will make his final group, whenever he pares it down. He is also excited about a recent Florida State offer.

March-April 2017: Committed stars are visiting other schools?

Justin Fields, whose Penn State commitment is one reason the Nittany Lions’ 2018 class is rated so highly, impresses in the Nike Regional Camp in Orlando.

Quarterback Justin Fields seems like he’ll be one of the darlings of recruiting. He drew rave reviews at Nike’s regional recruiting camp last weekend in Orlando, where he measured in at 6’3 and ran a 4.51-second 40-yard dash.

Fields, who is also a baseball star, is seeing his stock rocket, and is now considered the No. 1 dual-threat and the No. 2 overall QB.

While Fields maintains he is committed to Penn State, other schools, including Florida and Florida State, are turning up the heat on the Southern prospect.


Jack Tuttle looks great at the Los Angeles Nike Opening Regional, leaving many believing that the Utes got the jump on Pac-12 rivals by going all-in to secure his commitment early.


Four-star Colson Yankoff, the former Oregon commit,picks Washington despite Chris Peterson already having a verbal from Jacob Sirmon. We’ll see if both end up signing with UW, but our guess would be that one of them wavers. With Yankoff off the market, Nebraska, TCU, and Cal have to turn to other options.


Wyatt Rector, a three-star out of Leesburg, Fla., commits to Virginia, his only listed offer. Rector reportedly was told by UVA coaches that he shared physical characteristics of former 6,000-yard BYU quarterback Taysom Hill, whom the staff coached in Provo.

Another three-star that commits to his first offer is Coran Taylor, from Peoria, Ill, who jumps on Illinois. He led his Periora team to a Class 5A State Championship.


NC State’s Devin Leary is the first quarterback for the Wolfpack’s class. He committed over West Virginia, Wake Forest, and Maryland. The four-star from Sicklerville, N.J. tells 247Sports that head coach Dave Doeren’s staff won him over.


The nation’s No. 13 dual-threat, four-star Tyler DeSue, commits to Maryland over UCF and NC State. With Leary committing to NC State, UCF recruited DeSue hard. Instead, his verbal is to the Terps, who could have their second blue-chip QB signee in two years.


One of new Texas coach Tom Herman’s biggest commits comes from four-star Casey Thompson, who has committed to the Longhorns. While Thompson did have big offers like Miami, Ohio State, Oklahoma, and Penn State, it’s unclear how many would still have accepted his commitment, given that they all have taken a QB. North Carolina was pursuing him strongly.

Thompson is actually an OU legacy; his father, Charles, played quarterback. But the nation’s No. 7 dual-threat is a great fit for Herman’s offense.


Emory Jones, from just outside Atlanta, maintains he is “110 percent” committed to Ohio State. But he tells SB Nation that he plans to visit Florida, Florida State, and Alabama. He also took a secret visit to Georgia, the news of which he was hoping would not get out.

"I did visit Georgia, but it wasn't supposed to get out," Jones said. "I went on a Friday and stayed until Sunday. I just wanted to hang out and talk some football with Coach [Jim] Chaney and chill with some of the players and Coach [kirby] Smart."

Jones visiting schools much closer to his home cannot have the Buckeyes feeling great, but that he made a return visit to Columbus in April probably helps.


Justin Fields visits Tallahassee in April after his 7v7 team played a tournament there. The Seminoles and Gators are turning up the heat on the Penn State commit, but the Georgia native made sure to visit Penn State for its spring game and maintains that he is committed.


Three-star James Fostercommits to Missouri over fellow SEC offers from Tennessee and Georgia. Foster, a native of Montgomery, Ala., was Barry Odom top quarterback target. Foster was committed to UNC from Nov. 2015 until his decommitment late last year.


Having missed out on several targets, Tennessee has landed QB Michael Penix, of Tampa Bay. Penix is an intriguing lefty who may have become an option for in-state schools. Miami already has a commitment, and Florida and Florida State have higher priorities.


Remember how we noted a few months ago that Oklahoma QB commit Cameron Rising’s dad played at Cal Lutheran just a few years apart from Texas coach Tom Herman? Well, the four-star Newberry Park (Calif.) QB has flipped his commitment to Texas.

“I wanted to be sure so I visited more schools and even returned to Oklahoma for their spring game. Again, Oklahoma came out on top. AND THEN I WENT TO TEXAS and got that feeling Coach Smith told me about. I could feel the energy throughout the entire program — the coaches, players, recruits and fans. I want to be a part of building something special, something historic and know that Texas is the place for me.”

This is a major strike in the rivalry, even if Rising might not be as good of a fit for Herman’s offense as fellow UT commit Casey Thompson. But Texas only has two scholarship quarterbacks as of April 2017, so getting to four could help cement the position.

Where does Oklahoma turn? Well, the Sooners are trying to flip Texas’ other QB commit, Casey Thompson!

“I’ve been knowing,” Thompson said of Rising’s commitment and whether or not it impacts his pledge to Texas. “Me and the [Texas] coaches have a very good relationship. I knew they planned to take 2 from the jump. Their current QB room is thin!”

Thompson is, after all, an Oklahoma legacy.

In addition, Oklahoma offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley is now following Oklahoma State commit Spencer Sanders on Twitter, though Oklahoma is yet to offer.


Dorian Thompson-Robinson has committed to UCLA over his other finalist, Michigan.

His commitment is well-timed for Jim Mora’s Bruins. They are likely to lose rising junior Josh Rosen to the NFL draft after this season, leaving a hole that’ll need to be filled. Thompson-Robinson will be arriving in Los Angeles just as a spot opens up. He could torment Pac-12 defenses for several years.


Previewing the spring and summer

Where does Michigan turn? Word in the industry is that the Wolverines are willing to accept a commit from Orlando (Fla.) QB Joe Milton, who has been high on Florida and Georgia. Milton has recently visited all three, plus Florida State, which has declined to offer.

Milton is a fascinating prospect, with one of the strongest arms you will ever see, but also major questions about consistency and accuracy.

If Milton can learn to change the speed and arc on his throws to fit the situation and read defenses more quickly, he could be a beast at the college level. But with two consecutive seasons at the high school level under 50 percent completions (46 percent as a junior), that is not a guarantee.

The Wolverines are also involved with Chanler (Ariz.)’s Tyler Shough, a prospect whose stock has skyrocketed thanks to the camp and 7v7 circuits.


Kentucky held Jarren Williams’ commitment for 10 months. They couldn’t hold him for the 20 months between June 2016 and National Signing Day. The Lawrenceville (Ga.) prospect is being pursued by Alabama, Florida, and Florida State, though it is believed the bigger schools want him to come to camp and throw over the summer before accepting a commitment. The decommitment does not come as a surprise, as Williams has visited many schools in April.


And Cal lost its commitment from Adrian Martinez, who is now widely expected to pick Tennessee, which already has a quarterback but may be looking to take two.

As of April 25, 15 of the current top 20 quarterbacks are off the board.

That means if schools want to get a super elite prospect, they will likely need to flip someone like Jones or Fields.

Four-star North Charleston (SC) prospect Dakereon Joyner holds a lot of offers, but only some schools want him as a QB, something he wants to be. Clemson wants him as an athlete. But South Carolina and NC State have offered him to play QB.

Lefty three-star Cammon Cooper is one to watch. Out of Lehi (Utah), Cooper has recently added offers from Georgia and Tennessee and is high on Washington State and Arizona State, he told SB Nation.

Corona (Calif.)’s Tanner Mckee is a large pro-style passer to watch. He has made recent visits to Georgia and Duke, picking up offers.

It looks like a battle between LSU and TCU for Bossier City (La.)’s Justin Rogers. Rogers is an intriguing option who keeps getting better.

Mississippi State looks to be sitting pretty for Sachse (Texas) QB Jalen Mayden. Mayden plans to commit on May 23, and Mississippi State would seem like a fit, as the Bulldogs ask their QBs to run a lot while developing passing skills at their own pace.

Remember, though, that despite quarterback options drying up, there are still nine months until Signing Day.

The evaluation period is just beginning, during which coaches hit the road to visit prospects at their schools during spring practice.

New offers fly out during this period, as do offers to attend summer camps. New prospects emerging and top recruits flipping will make this a fascinating race, and we’ll be updating this diary as often as news breaks.


May 2017 is for a Michigan man

Shortly after returning from its trip to Italy, Michigan indeed landed Milton, an intriguing prospect discussed thoroughly in the March-April section, above. Georgia is still involved with McKee, Fields, and Emory Jones. Florida and Florida State are involved with Fields and Williams, the former Kentucky commit, as is Georgia as of early May. Florida State has also offered Tyler Shough (discussed above).


Wisconsin adds Chase Wolf, and Boston College adds Matt Valeccee.


And industry chatter now suggests that Martinez, the recent Cal decommitment, could be headed to Oklahoma, not Tennessee. But that chatter turns out to be wrong, as Martinez commits to Tennessee just a few days later.


Pitt has also added QB Nick Patti, of Montvale (NJ). And Wisconsin pulled the offer of committed QB Ben Bryant, who was tweeting about his recent offer from Georgia. Because schools cannot comment on unsigned prospects, we do not know both sides of the Bryant story


And Jarren Williams, who decommitted from Kentucky in May, has recommitted. The situation with the bigger offers on the table, like Alabama, Florida, and Florida State, remains unchanged — they want him to throw at their camp before considering taking a commitment.


Mississippi State beats out Baylor, Nebraska and notable others to land Jalen Mayden, a dual-threat passer from Texas. Baylor will pursue Tanner Mordecai, of Texas, and Gerry Bohanon, of Arkansas.


And interestingly, after offers from Florida State and UNC, Tulsa lost QB commitment Jace Ruder, who decommitted. With big offers coming in for the Norton (KS) prospect, there may be a major sleeper in the town of less than 3,000 people.


TCU has landed Justin Rogers, the No. 3 prospect out of Louisiana. It’s a huge pick-up for the Horned Frogs, who will need Rogers by the time he steps on campus in Fort Worth.

You’ve got Kenny Hill and Shawn Robinson, but behind them are Grayson Muehlstein and walk-on Jordan Kitna (along with a few other walk-ons). By the time Rogers gets to campus Hill will be gone, and Robinson will most likely be the starter. Similar to this season, where Robinson enrolled early and was bumped to No. 2 on the depth chart this spring, Rogers will have a good chance, as an early enrollee himself, to jump up the depth chart in spring ball to at least No. 2.


Oklahoma has landed three-star quarterback Tanner Mordecai, who makes for a a solid back-up plan to replace the loss of Cameron Rising.

June brings camp season and movement

The Elite 11 Finals always provide an excellent chance to compare top QBs against one another. But they also bring rumor and resulting drama.

The big bombshell to drop, just shortly after the Finals concluded, is Justin Fields decommitting from Penn State. The move was not unexpected, but was still followed with great interest. The top four teams emerging seem to be Auburn, Florida, Florida State, and Georgia, in no specific order.

Auburn has the Cam Newton connection, as Fields idolizes the former Tigers QB and plays on his 7v7 team, which is sponsored by Under Armour, as is Auburn. If 7v7 was like AAU in basketball recruiting, the apparel company connection might be seen as the most important piece in this recruitment. But football is different, so we’ll wait to see if it matters. Auburn also has a wide open QB room after transfer QB Jarrett Stidham leaves in a year or two.

Florida, having just accepted a transfer from QB Malik Zaire may offer the most immediate playing time, especially if class of 2016 QB Feleipe Franks is not developing as fast as UF would like. And Fields is a better prospect at the same age than Franks.

Florida State has Jimbo Fisher, the coach among the four schools with the clear best track record for developing quarterbacks, and has some room given that 2015 signee De’Andre Johnson and 2016 signee Malik Henry are no longer with the program.

And Georgia is the in-state school, which cannot be ignored, but it has signed five-star QBs in back-to-back years, so playing time might be the toughest in Athens. His sister has also committed to play softball for Georgia.

Fields took his time in making the decision to decommit, so it’s a good bet that he will take some visits before making a new commitment, though I’d expect it before the end of summer.


Where will Penn State turn after losing Fields? The two obvious candidates are NC State commit Devin Leary, of New Jersey, and Virginia Tech commit Quincy Patterson, of Chicago. New Jersey is a traditional stronghold for Penn State.


What about Alabama? Folks with whom I spoke at Elite 11 believe Alabama is trying to flip USC commit Matt Corral and Utah commit Jake Tuttle. The key to getting any West Coast kid to leave California and come to the deep South is to get him on campus for multiple visits.


And keep an eye on Oregon with Colson Yankoff. Yes, the Yankoff who decommitted from the Ducks and flipped to Washington after Mark Helfrich was fired. Oregon is still pursuing him aggressively.


Louisville has added an intriguing player in Jordan Travis, of Palm Beach (Fla.). Travis was starting to pick up interest from some more Power 5 schools.


North Carolina has received a commitment from Tyler Shough. He verballed to the heels over Michigan. The four-star is the No. 10 pro-style QB in the country.


Matt Corral has decommitted from USC, and the five-star is officially on the market. It’ll be interesting to see which schools will go after the Cali native in the coming months, and if the rumors about Southeastern QBs showing increased interest are true.

Corral and fellow five-star Justin Fields spoke at The Opening Finals about similar schools that are recruiting the two, including Florida, Georgia, Auburn, Alabama, and Florida State. The two have upcoming visits to the schools on the horizon, which should clear things up in terms of where they end up. Both also said that the two having the same offers doesn’t bother them, as well.


July sees new commits, visits

Justin Fields has made good on his word from The Opening, visiting all of his top schools since returning home. His most recent visits were to Florida State, and Florida.

The Fields race is now down to Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Georgia, and potentially USC, as the Florida Gators took a commitment from Matt Corral, a fellow five-star who was down to Georgia and Florida. Most seem to be picking Georgia or FSU as the landing spot for fields.

Florida desperately needs a good quarterback, so it’s a smart move to take Corral and not wait around to see what Fields does, as Georgia is believed to be doing. Georgia has the luxury of doing so after signing elite prospects in Jacob Eason and Jake Fromm in back-to-back years.

Meanwhile, the recruiting world waits to see if Fields will commit before his senior season begins, or if he will wait to take some official visits.


A slow August and September

Given the start of fall camp for both high schools and colleges, few visits are being taken, nor are commitments being given.


October: The biggest Domino falls

In early October, Georgia landed Justin Fields, the most coveted recruit in the country. The momentum built by Kirby Smart’s program, and distance from home helped Georgia get his pledge. Georgia is now absolutely loaded at the QB position, with three five-star types either on campus or committed. It will be interesting to see how Georgia handles Fields with Jake Fromm and Jacob Eason already on campus.

Fields picked Georgia over Florida State, Alabama, Auburn, and LSU. Alabama is showing increased interest in Jarren Williams, the Kentucky commitment. Ohio State is as well, according to Williams, despite having a commitment from Emory Jones.

Oregon also took advantage of distance, program momentum, and a poor start by UNC to flip Tyler Shough, an Arizona native, to the Ducks.

At the end of the month, Missouri lost a verbal commitment from James Foster, whom had been committed since April. Increased interest from LSU seems to have been a major reason for the move by the Montgomery (Ala.) star, and Foster plans to visit the Tigers on November 11.


Alabama and Ohio State will topple a few more tiles

November has been quite busy for QB recruiting.

Artur Sitkowski, a New Jersey native who plays for IMG Academy in Bradenton (Fla.) switched his commitment from Miami to Rutgers. This would seem like a major coup for Rutgers, but Miami fans don’t seem all that concerned considering Sitkowski has struggled this year at IMG Academy. If Rutgers can get him to translate his physical tools into production, that will be a big win for the Scarlet Knights.

The bigger news, however, comes from some reading of the tea leaves in Tuscaloosa and Columbus.

Emory Jones, a long-time Ohio State commitment, is now widely expected to flip to Alabama. While Jones is not the only top QB the Tide is pursuing (see also: Tanner McKee), he does seem like the most likely to end up in the class.

In response, Ohio State has offered Jarren Williams, who is currently committed to Kentucky. Williams has a great relationship with Kentucky, but the Buckeyes and Wildcats are simply a different class of program.

One other prospect to keep an eye on: Matt Corral, the California QB who is committed to Florida. Florida is without a head coach after firing Jim McElwain, and it’s yet to be seen if Corral will fit the new Gators’ system, or if he’ll have a good relationship with the new staff.

All rankings via the 247Sports Composite at time of writing unless otherwise specified.

Alabama and Ohio State could shake up the QB recruiting scene

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If Ohio State loses Emory Jones to Alabama, it might try to raid Kentucky’s class.

The following is the latest update of the SB Nation QB Dominoes feature.

November has been quite busy for QB recruiting.

Artur Sitkowski, a New Jersey native who plays for IMG Academy in Bradenton (Fla.) switched his commitment from Miami to Rutgers. This would seem like a major coup for Rutgers, but Miami fans don’t seem all that concerned considering Sitkowski has struggled this year at IMG Academy. If Rutgers can get him to translate his physical tools into production, that will be a big win for the Scarlet Knights.

The bigger news, however, comes from some reading of the tea leaves in Tuscaloosa and Columbus.

Emory Jones, a long-time Ohio State commitment, is now widely expected to flip to Alabama. While Jones is not the only top QB the Tide is pursuing (see also: Tanner McKee), he does seem like the most likely to end up in the class.

In response, Ohio State has offered Jarren Williams, who is currently committed to Kentucky. Williams has a great relationship with Kentucky, but the Buckeyes and Wildcats are simply a different class of program.

One other prospect to keep an eye on: Matt Corral, the California QB who is committed to Florida. Florida is without a head coach after firing Jim McElwain, and it’s yet to be seen if Corral will fit the new Gators’ system, or if he’ll have a good relationship with the new staff.

Quickly

Yeah, a 13-0 Wisconsin would make the College Football Playoff

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At first I thought no, but after more research, I changed my mind.

The undefeated Wisconsin Badgers are one of the most polarizing teams in all of college football. In a recent editorial discussion, my SB Nation colleagues and I were debating whether the Badgers, if they finished the season undefeated, should be a lock for the College Football Playoff. My initial reaction was that they should not. Now, I’m not so sure.

Wisconsin has some good players. It has also played a cakewalk of a schedule.

If the Playoff started today, Wisconsin would not deserve to be in. Per ESPN’s metrics, it has played the No. 73 schedule in the nation. The only ranked team the Badgers have played is current Playoff No. 25 Northwestern. Seven of the nine teams on Wisconsin’s schedule to date do not have a winning record. The Badgers’ best win is either Northwestern (by 11 in Madison), or an FAU worried about a hurricane bearing down on their homes (by 17, also in Madison).

From Tuesday night:

"They had the lowest strength of schedule," committee chair Kirby Hocutt said Tuesday. "We do not look at one specific strength of schedule metric. We look at a number of strength of schedule metrics, but consistently over the course of all of those metrics we looked at, Wisconsin had the lowest strength of schedule among the 25 teams ranked this week."

Wisconsin ranks eighth in both ESPN’s Strength of Record measure, which does not take into account margin of victory, and in Bill Connelly’s Resume S&P+ measure, which does.

A lack of marquee wins. A lack of decent opponents on the schedule. And a lack of notoriety are the main reasons why Wisconsin is No. 8 in the latest Playoff rankings.

But the Playoff doesn’t begin today. If Wisconsin finishes undefeated, it should be in.

The Badgers still have to play Iowa, which just throttled Ohio State and now ranks No. 20. They still must play Michigan, which might be getting its act together with a quickness after the QB change to Brandon Peters. And they would play either Ohio State or Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship Game.

It is almost certain that the three toughest games on Wisconsin’s schedule are still to be played. If Wisconsin beats ranked versions of Iowa, Michigan, and either Ohio State or Michigan State, its schedule metrics, which track fairly well with the committee’s record of decision-making, are going to skyrocket.

So no, Wisconsin does not deserve much credit for what it’s done to date. Going 9-0 against the No. 73 schedule is not that tough. Wisconsin’s resume to date is not much better than that of fellow undefeated UCF, which is not being seriously considered.

But if that 9-0 becomes some supporting evidence to the main exhibits of wins over Iowa, Michigan, and the Big Ten East champ, then the Badgers would probably be worthy.

The latter is especially true considering only one of the other Power 5 conferences, the SEC, has a likely shot at an undefeated conference champion (the ACC could, but Miami would need to pull two upsets along the way, against Notre Dame and Clemson). If this was a year in which multiple undefeated champions were likely, Wisconsin might be in trouble.

There are some other factors to consider, too.

Conference champ: Being a conference champion will weigh in the Badgers’ favor, if the other team being considered is the SEC runner-up, for example. This is an official consideration of the committee.

Undefeated: While the committee is tasked with selecting the four best teams, in practice, it does not act like it is drafting a power poll. The former college coaches on the committee will surely remark about how difficult it truly is to go undefeated, regardless of schedule. Getting a team up to play every week, even against an iffy schedule, can be tougher than getting it to play at an elite level a bunch of times while laying multiple eggs (hello, Ohio State).

No 12-1 Power 5 champ has ever missed the Playoff, let alone a 13-0 Power 5 champ.

Scheduling intent? It is often said that teams do not control their schedules. Within a conference, that is true. But it is not true for non-conference scheduling. And Wisconsin’s non-conference schedule this season is atrocious. Utah State is 5-5. BYU is having its worst season in many decades.

Former member Barry Alvarez, who happens to be Wisconsin’s AD, once argued the committee should consider whether a team tried to schedule tough. At least one other member publicly argued against the idea. It’s certainly not an official factor, but the committee often seems to fly by the seat of its pants and make things up as it goes.

Considering that the committee consists of several athletic directors who are tasked with making schedules for their own programs, Wisconsin could get the benefit of the doubt from some of them.

Consider that from 2011-15, the Utah State Aggies went a strong 43-24. BYU is an even better case. The Cougars have made 12 straight bowls, with an average record of 9-4. The Cougars have been a consistently excellent non-conference opponent. But this season, BYU is 2-8 and one of the worst teams in all of college football. Wisconsin could not have reasonably forecasted that two opponents who typically go 9-4 or 8-5 sit at 5-5 and 2-8, respectively.

Injuries: The committee has also said that it considers whether a team’s play was impacted by key injuries. The obvious 2017 angle is that of Clemson losing to Syracuse without a healthy QB in Kelly Bryant. But Wisconsin is now quite banged up. If the Badgers squeak by their final four opponents, but are likely to get some key players more healthy by January, the committee could consider it.

Precedent: It’s unlikely that the committee wants to set a precedent of leaving off an undefeated Power 5 conference champion.

Additionally, what would the hypothetical field without a 13-0 Wisconsin even even look like? Could it be Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, and one of Notre Dame or Georgia, the latter which did not go undefeated and/or did not win its conference? That won’t keep the member leagues happy.

Don’t let a college football recruiting class impact a firing decision

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A recruiting class shouldn’t save a coach.

The SB Nation College Football Recruiting Podcast returns with another episode. You can subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) or Google Play Music.

A direct link to the show can be found here.

The big news of the week

Big visit weekends

  • Auburn hosting Georgia: OL Trey Hill, DB Christian Tutt, LB Quay Walker, maybe WR Justyn Ross. Let’s talk about Auburn: The highest possible range of outcomes over the next two weeks. The No. 8 class in the SEC. UGA this week, Alabama in three weeks. The Tigers could end up a playoff team, or it could fire its coach.
  • South Carolina hosting: 5-star DE K.J. Henry, DB Saivion Smith, DL Jared Jackson (Louisville commit). Talk about the Gamecocks’ class, the competition, and the sweet spot. No. 10 class currently within the SEC, three 4-stars, 15 3-stars.
  • QB James Foster official to LSU, off his Missouri decommitment. Other teams involved: Louisville, somewhat FSU and Alabama.

Buyout watch

  • Arkansas: Bret Bielema almost lost to Coastal Carolina.
  • Auburn: Gus Malzahn went on the road and stomped Texas A&M.
  • Nebraska lost to Northwestern.
  • Tennessee: Still expecting this to open.
  • Texas Tech: Kliff Kingsbury is now 1-5 in conference play after losing at home to Kansas State. Must win two of final three (Baylor, TCU, at Texas) to make a bowl game.
  • Texas A&M: Reports that Kevin Sumlin is done.
  • UCLA: Got hammered by Utah, and lost five recruits in the process.

Lines

Stanford -6 at Washington ... MSU at Ohio State -15.5 ... Oklahoma State -7 at Iowa State ... NC State -3 at Boston College ... Arkansas at LSU -17 ... Virginia Tech -3 at Georgia Tech ... Notre Dame -3 at Miami ... Georgia -3 at Auburn ... FSU at Clemson -16 ... Iowa at Wisconsin -12 ... Washington State -1 at Utah ... Alabama -14 at Mississippi State ... TCU at Oklahoma -7

Notre Dame, Auburn, Oklahoma, and 15 more bets for a big Week 11 of college football

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Let’s pick out some wagers for a deep Week 11 of college football.

All wagers are at -110 odds unless otherwise noted. My picks are in bold, with that team’s spread attached. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.

Season record: 107-74 (59 percent) following a 12-8-1 Week 10; 33 games over .500 is a much better year than I expected.

What a fun weekend we have on tap.

Friday

1. Temple -2.5 at Cincinnati: Temple's defense is strong. I expect the Owls to shut down Cincinnati’s horrid offense.

Saturday

2. Notre Dame -3 at Miami: Notre Dame hits home runs on the ground. Miami gives them up. This is a flyball pitcher in a bandbox situation.

3. Georgia at Auburn +3: Auburn is the best defensive front Georgia has faced. I believe the Tigers can make Georgia need to throw, as opposed to throwing when it wants to. Jake Fromm has thrown only 22 passes on third-and-7 or longer. That is incredible protection of a young QB, but it could end Saturday.

4. TCU at Oklahoma -6.5: I just do not think TCU can score with Oklahoma. I love Gary Patterson and TCU's defense, but do not trust Kenny Hill to keep up with Baker Mayfield.

5. Duke -2.5 at Army: Duke is off a bye, which is ideal for defending the option. Army is in a big letdown spot off its rivalry win against Air Force. Duke needs this game for a bowl.

6. Kentucky at Vanderbilt -2: Vanderbilt's offense seems to be a bit more on track, while Kentucky remains one of the luckiest teams in the nation. UK’s second-order wins are 3.2, yet they are 6-3 on the season. They have won games in which their win expectancies were 6 percent, 57 percent, 16 percent, and 35 percent. Their losses have been definitive.

7. New Mexico +19 at Texas A&M: Will A&M show up? Will they be looking ahead to Ole Miss?

8. Purdue +5 at Northwestern: Northwestern has played three consecutive games in overtime. Eventually, that can wear on a team.

9. Rutgers at Penn State -30: Rutgers was blown away by Ohio State and Michigan. Credit RU for playing tough against opponents of similar talent, but Penn State has too much firepower.

10. Texas Tech -7.5 vs. Baylor: I bet Baylor last week and won, but the Red Raiders need this one for a bowl game, and were quite unlucky against Kansas State last week.

11 and 12. UL-Lafayette at Ole Miss -19 AND Over 67: ULL's defense is atrocious. Ole Miss' defense is not great, and this is certainly a potential look-ahead spot, but the Rebels offense is humming.

13. Virgina Tech at Georgia Tech +3: Virginia Tech is coming off a crushing, emotional loss. Good luck regrouping to play the Yellow Jackets.

14. Virginia at Louisville -11: I do not trust UVA's defense against Lamar Jackson.

15. West Virginia +2.5 at Kansas State: I just do not trust Kansas State's offense. Yes, I'll sign the waiver acknowledging the danger in betting a road team at KSU.

16. Washington State at Utah +1: Wazzu on the road has been horrid. I have had a good read on Washington State all year.

17. Arizona State at UCLA -2: Josh Rosen should be playing, and I'll look to play against an overreaction to the blowout UCLA suffered at the hands of Utah last week.

18. Boise State -5 at Colorado State: Boise State has regrouped and is pounding opponents, following a poor start to the season.


Pretend you’ve been offered the Nebraska and Tennessee jobs. Which should you take?

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Presenting the cases for each, it’s clear one of the two has a better chance to compete annually.

Today, I’m going to debate myself on which coaching job is better: Nebraska Cornhuskers or Tennessee Volunteers? Neither job is open at the moment; Butch Jones has been fired, so the Tennessee job is open, and, coach Mike Riley is believed to be squarely on the hot seat, as each team has yet another disappointing season, and the athletic directors who hired them are no longer on the job.

Let’s stipulate that the difference in salaries at both programs is rather negligible.

Nebraska: Nebraska is a much more storied program than Tennessee.

Forty-six conference titles, five national titles (including three in the last quarter century), and three Heisman winners. Both jobs have been down for a while, but Nebraska is the easier sell with its tradition.

Tennessee: You used the word “sell.” Who are you selling? Coaches and recruits.

Remember, neither has any recent success to sell to recruits. None were born the last time we were on top.

There are better players around Knoxville than there are around Lincoln. And the coaches you’ll be selling know this. There’s a reason Nebraska has been down for 20 years now, and unlike Tennessee — which has made bad coaching hire after bad coaching hire — Nebraska’s problem is fundamental: It can’t get players.

The lack of local talent has always been an issue at Nebraska. As SB Nation’s fine Nebraska outlet, Corn Nation, detailed, the lack of recruits within a 500-mile radius is glaring.

And many of Nebraska’s old loopholes have since been closed. Nebraska’s walk-on program, once fueled by “academic” scholarships, is no longer brilliant. No longer can Nebraska fly recruits to campus on a private jet.

Most importantly, Nebraska used to live on partial qualifiers. This isn’t news, but Sports Illustrated’s Tim Layden did an absolutely masterful job of calling his shot in January 1996 in his piece titled Headed for a fall? Nebraska may win another national title, but the days when such a colossus ruled the game are over.

Still, what most threatens Nebraska's championship streak is the Big 12's policy on accepting partial and non-qualifiers under NCAA freshman eligibility guidelines. (A partial qualifier is a prospective athlete who meets only one of two minimum academic requirements — grade point average or standardized test score. The minimums are a 2.0 GPA with a 900 on the SAT or 21 on the ACT; or a 2.5 GPA with a 700 SAT or 17 ACT. A non-qualifier meets neither standard. If a school accepts a partial or non-qualifier, the athlete is ineligible for athletics for one year). On Dec. 20 the Big 12 presidents voted unanimously to limit each school to four partial qualifiers per year (two men, two women) and no more than one in a single sport. Non-qualifiers were excluded entirely.

In the Fiesta Bowl, Nebraska started four partial or non-qualifiers (cornerback Michael Booker, defensive tackle Christian Peter, cornerback Tyrone Williams and defensive end Jared Tomich), and two others, wideout Reggie Baul and outside linebacker Jamel Williams, played almost as much as the starters. According to Nebraska officials there were at least 12 partial or non-qualifiers in the program last fall. "Among elites schools Nebraska is a true haven for partial and non-qualifiers," said the coach of another elite school.

Layden looks smarter with each passing year.

Add to that the fact that Nebraska’s advantage in strength training (the Huskers were the first major program to adopt serious heavy lifting) is now gone.

Oh, and with the move from the Big 12 to the Big Ten, gone are two more Nebraska advantages: 1) the extent to which over-signing was allowed, now mostly cured, and 2) tapping into the recruit-rich state of Texas for players, since Nebraska went from playing two games in the state yearly, plus another at a nearby Oklahoma school, to zero.

Nebraska: Tennessee might be able to get better players, but can’t out-recruit its competition like the Huskers can.

To use a blackjack reference, I’d rather have a 19 to a dealer’s 18 than have a 20 and lose to a 21.

Setting aside the fact that Nebraska has been able to recruit well in California and other out-of-state locales of late, let’s assume that everyone in the Big Ten and SEC has their act together and is operating at peak efficiency.

How many teams that Nebraska faces on a yearly basis would have better players than the ideal version of the Huskers? One? Two? Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan are all in the other division, and on average, Nebraska has to play roughly three of those games every two years.

Within Nebraska’s division, there is not a single team that can recruit with the Huskers if Nebraska makes the right hire. Not Wisconsin. Not Iowa. Certainly not Northwestern, Minnesota, Purdue, or Illinois.

Now compare that to what Tennessee faces. If everyone is operating at peak efficiency, Florida and Georgia are absolutely going to have a decided talent advantage against Tennessee. So too will Alabama, which Tennessee must face every year as its designated SEC West opponent. And potential cross-over opponents like LSU, Auburn, and Texas A&M also out-recruit the Vols on a regular basis.

If you look closely at when Tennessee was at its best, it was a unique and rare combination of Tennessee being on fire and key programs (mostly Alabama and Georgia) being down. There’s a reason for that.

More Nebraska: Tennessee doesn’t measure up when its major rivals are good.

The great and revered Phil Fulmer is considered the recent gold standard at Tennessee. Fulmer won the SEC East in six of his 17 seasons. Yet he had a losing record against almost all of the good SEC coaches during his tenure.

  • He was 5-12 against Florida, going 2-1 against Ron Zook, 0-4 against Urban Meyer, and 3-7 against Steve Spurrier.
  • While he had an 11-6 record against Georgia, he was just 3-5 against Mark Richt.
  • He went 8-2 against Alabama coaches Mike Dubose, Dennis Franchione, and Mike Shula, but just a combined 2-4-1 against Gene Stallings and Nick Saban.
  • If you’re scoring at home, that is a combined record of 8-20-1 against Meyer, Spurrier (at Florida), Richt, Stallings, and Saban (at Alabama).

Tennessee’s best simply doesn’t measure up to the best of the teams it has to play on a yearly basis. Nebraska’s, for the most part, does.

Even more Nebraska: Also, let’s no go overrating the talent around Knoxville.

Knoxville is not in the talented part of Tennessee. It’s surrounded by national forests and mountains. Not much good high school football is played in those parts.

Not much football being played in National Forests

It takes six hours to drive from Knoxville to the talent-rich city of Memphis. And going from Memphis to Knoxville, you lose an hour due to the time zone switch.

Alabama is two hours closer and in the same time zone. Auburn is roughly the same distance from Memphis. Ole Miss is about an hour. The Razorbacks are 90 minutes closer than the Vols. Mississippi State is less than half the distance away, as is Vanderbilt. Missouri and Kentucky are roughly the same distance as the Vols. It is so unfortunate for Tennessee that eight programs within its own conference are as close or much closer to a huge talent base in the Volunteer State.

Nashville, the other major talent spot in the city, is better, but still almost four hours away when accounting for the time change going east.

That’s to say nothing of how Tennessee used to be able to raid North and South Carolina when NC State, UNC, Clemson, and South Carolina were all down, but now has to fight legitimate battles for at least some players from Charlotte, Raleigh, and Greenville.

Still more Nebraska: That also extends to expectations. It’s much easier to win at Nebraska.

If you’re the coach at Nebraska, and you handle your business, you are often going to have a chance to play two or three games to make the College Football Playoff: Wisconsin, the good team you draw from the Big Ten East, and the Big Ten Championship Game. The Big Ten champion is not going to be left out if undefeated, even if it sometimes plays in the weakest division in the Power 5.

Compare that to Tennessee, which routinely has to play at least double the number of games at a talent disadvantage as Nebraska. Good luck getting to the Playoff with that slate.

Finally, some Tennessee: Do you want to win a title or just reach the Playoff?

We’ve seen what happens to teams that reach the Playoff but don’t have enough talent to win it: They get stomped, either in the first round or the second. Oregon couldn’t physically match up with Ohio State. Alabama went 38-0 on Michigan State and dominated Washington. Clemson beat Oklahoma by three scores.

There’s a baseline level of talent needed to win it all. Tennessee has a much better chance of getting to that level, and even if it has the harder schedule, at least it will be battle-tested and have a shot if it does get there.

Making the Playoff, but not having the talent to win it, is a Buffalo Bills sequel. Who wants that tease?

Nebraska: Do you really think either is going to win a national title? What about stability? What about expectations? What about being able to coach at a place for a decade and make $50M?

Let’s be real here. These are top-30-level jobs, but they aren’t top-10-type jobs. They don’t automatically come with serious title expectations.

You can win a lot of games and coach for a long time at Nebraska. The Big Ten doesn’t operate like Tennessee. There’s potential for real stability.

Bo Pelini went 67-27 with the Huskers, which is roughly 10-4 each year. And Pelini is not some amazing coach. Nobody is getting fired at Nebraska for consistently going 10-4 unless, well, you’re a huge jerk. And with the benefit of hindsight, and having gone through the Mike Riley experience, Nebraska almost certainly won’t be firing someone who matches Pelini’s on-field record with a bit more off-field couth.

The Nebraska job asks that its coach consistently dominate most of the Big Ten West, hold his own against Wisconsin, and very occasionally knock off the best from the East in the conference championship game.

Consider quality of life. You can raise your family at Nebraska if you win the West Division more often than not. Your kids can grow up with the same friends through middle and high school. You can be happy, not constantly on the hot seat, and not compared to Georgia, Florida, and Alabama on a daily basis. The chances you get a second contract at Nebraska are so much better.

What if you improve on Jones at Tennessee by a game per season? Instead of averaging 7-5 like Jones, maybe you average 8-4, with one SEC East title, but no conference championship during your five-year deal. Do you really think Tennessee’s boosters won’t be reaching out to the next hot commodity?

Every major program has outsized expectations, but between programs of similar resources, Nebraska’s seem much more realistic. Pick a place where a good job will be recognized as such. Pick Nebraska.

The SEC’s so lopsided, its schedule sucks now

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We have a whole lot of uninteresting games to get through before the two that actually look great.

Welp, this turned out to be the disaster it looked like it could be in early October. Check out the graphic the SEC is using to promote its Week 12 doubleheader of games.

Yuck

Original

I can’t wait to watch Alabama go to Auburn on Nov. 25. And two weeks before, it’ll be fun to watch Georgia go to Auburn. These teams are legitimately somewhere between very good and incredible. And if you have three teams of that caliber, you are a legitimate league.

But other than that? This SEC schedule is a snoozer. About half of the fan bases in the league want to fire their head coaches. Vanderbilt (!) has been on CBS and ESPN national broadcasts in back-to-back weeks.

The reason the schedule is so bad is the number of teams who just can’t be taken seriously as threats to win the conference or even to challenge the conference contenders in a given game.

  • Texas A&M blew a 34-point lead to a UCLA team that’d lose to Memphis.
  • LSU got stomped by Mississippi State and gave up 190 yards to Troy’s running back in a loss in Death Valley.
  • That Mississippi State team subsequently lost to Georgia and Auburn by a combined score of 80-13.
  • Arkansas was stomped by TCU.
  • Ole Miss is a disaster.

And that’s just in the West.

On the East side, it’s Georgia and the six dwarves.

  • Two-time defending East champ Florida was crushed by a baby-faced Michigan that lost everyone from 2016 to the draft and needed miracles to escape Kentucky and Tennessee.
  • Tennessee lost to Georgia 41-0 in Knoxville.
  • Kentucky lost to Florida by twice failing to have a cornerback in the game to cover a receiver. The Wildcats beat Southern Miss, FCS Eastern Kentucky, and Eastern Michigan by an average of just a touchdown.
  • Vanderbilt has its best team in a half-decade ... and lost at home to Alabama by a score of 59-0.
  • Missouri is one of the worst teams in the Power 5, having lost at home to Purdue, South Carolina, and Auburn by a combined 87 points.

I don’t envy new CBS announcer Brad Nessler.

Having to hype up this slate of games is going to be brutal. The SEC is normally a national brand, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find people, outside of those wearing the colors of the teams in the game, who want to watch teams that have already showed themselves to be far from the standard the SEC normally boasts.

SEC Network games will be pure comedy gold, as the announcers have to try and shill for these sad-sack teams.

What other games do you really want to see in this league?

Maybe Georgia vs. Florida, just for the weirdness?

If you’re in a pool to bet on which game Butch Jones makes it to, the road trip to Kentucky might be interesting to you, and only you.

If you’re not an LSU or Florida fan, do you care about the stupid hurricane-related spat that was borne out of mismanagement by the SEC office last year?

Do you care when Auburn goes to Death Valley, after seeing how War Eagle crushed the Mississippi State team that did the same to LSU?

I don’t personally care to watch Arkansas try to bring its pro-style offense to Tuscaloosa and get brained for the umpteenth year by a Tide defense that loves to face teams that don’t run the spread.

What about Week 12, when half of the league is facing Group of 5 cupcakes or FCS opponents?

Does watching Will Muschamp’s South Carolina host a Florida that still plays like it is coached by Muschamp intrigue you? Oh right, I forgot to include South Carolina in the list above. There’s probably a reason for that.

Wake me up come November.

Why Jon Gruden at Tennessee and Chip Kelly at Florida would work

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Think of the recruiting battles if these two NFL coaches come back to the college game.

The SB Nation College Football Recruiting Podcast returns with another episode. You can subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) or Google Play Music.

A direct link to the show can be found here.

Show Rundown

  • Auburn and Miami cashed in with big wins in front of major visitors. Auburn had Christian Tutt, Justyn Ross, Trey Hill, Jamien Sherwood, and others on campus. And the Hurricanes hosted Jarren Williams, Patrick Surtain Jr., and more.
  • Could two NFL coaches soon come to the SEC East? Would Jon Gruden actually be a good recruiter? Tennessee’s class is falling apart. How would Chip Kelly do at UF?
  • What team would you least want to play in the playoff?
  • Notable visits this weekend: Louisville is hosting Alontae Taylor (recent Tennessee decommit) and WR Jatavious Harris ... Ohio State is hosting QB Jarren Williams and DT Tyler Friday ... Notre Dame hosting LB Payton Wilson (UNC commit), Penn State hosting DE Jayson Oweh and WR Solomon Enis ... Oregon hosting RB Jashaun Corbin (FSU commit) and TE Michael Ezeike ... Washington hosting ATH Bryan Addison ... USC Michael Thompson and Trevor Trout.
  • Hot seat talk: Bret Bielema and Mike Riley seem like the most likely to go next. Will UCLA and Arizona State really pay massive buyouts? Is there any chance Texas A&M stays put? Gus Malzahn to Arkansas?

Michigan and the 22 other best bets for Week 12 of college football

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You can make money in a boring week of college football, such as Week 12.

All wagers are at -110 odds unless otherwise noted. My picks are in bold with that team’s spread attached. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.

Season record: 118-81 (59 percent) following a 11-7 Week 11; 37 games over .500 is a much better year than I expected. At the same time, I felt that I got lucky last week in a few spots.

This weekend looks really boring. But I often bet on boring or bad teams. The money spends the same.

Friday

1. UNLV +2 at New Mexico: New Mexico is officially on my "quit list." I am actively looking to fade the Lobos. Their offense has cratered. This line is rising, so by the time you see it, it might be +3.

Saturday

2. Michigan +8 at Wisconsin: Don Brown's Michigan defense does not give up methodical drives. Per Football Study Hall, the Wolverines are No. 1 nationally in efficiency. Wisconsin wants to go on methodical marches. Styles make fights, and Michigan will dare Wisconsin to make big plays. This bet says the Badgers won't make enough.

3. Air Force at Boise State -17: Boise State has been playing much better of late and should avenge three recent losses to the Falcons.

4. Arizona State at Oregon State +7.5: I don't really like this play. I looked for a reason to spike it, but I cannot find a good enough reason to. My system this year is 37 games over .500, so play it and hold your nose.

5. Army at North Texas -2.5: I like what coach Seth Littrell is doing in Denton. The Mean Green have posted win expectancies of 99, 94, and 100 percent in the last three weeks.

6. Cal +16 at Stanford: Calm off a bye, catching more than two touchdowns against an inconsistent Stanford? Yes, please.

7. Cincinnati -3 at East Carolina: This is the rare opportunity to play against East Carolina while laying just a field goal.

8. Georgia Tech at Duke +7: I had Georgia Tech last weekend and cashed, but Duke did play Army's offense quite well (a blocked punt for Army helped inflate the score.) This is back-to-back weeks against option teams for the Blue Devils.

9. Iowa State at Baylor +9.5: If you can wait and get 10, do so. Iowa State just played a draining game against Oklahoma State, and I have been nailing Baylor games, both for and against, of late.

10. Kentucky at Georgia -21: I went against Georgia successfully in the last two weeks, but it ends this week. Vandy put up 5.8 yards per play on Kentucky's defense last weekend.

11 . Marshall at UTSA +1: Perhaps my favorite bet of the week. Marshall was very lucky in Week 11 against Western Kentucky, having been outgained 6.0-4.3 on a per-play basis. UTSA, on the other hand, was somewhat unlucky.

12. Minnesota +7.5 at Northwestern: This is just a lot for a Northwestern team that does not score a lot of points.

13. Missouri at Vanderbilt +9: I have been riding the Missouri train successfully, but this does feel pretty inflated, perhaps due to the circumstances of Missouri's recent games against Tennessee and Florida teams that laid down in Columbia.

14. New Mexico State -4 at Lafayette: Lafayette’s defense is simply awful — 125th in the nation in S&P+. Ole Miss could have scored 75 last week if it had kept the pedal down. NMSU is off a bye.

15. Pitt +16 at Virginia Tech: Pitt played a much better game against North Carolina than the score indicated. Virginia Tech is off a very tough game against Georgia Tech.

16. Purdue +8 at Iowa: Iowa's offense looked terrible last week, which is more fitting with what it has been for much of the year, as opposed to the outlier game against Ohio State.

17. Texas A&M at Ole Miss -2.5: Ole Miss' offense is far and away the best unit in this game.

18. Texas State at Arkansas State -26: I rarely lay this many points, but Arkansas State had some incredibly bad turnover luck last week and can really score. Texas State's defense is not good, and its offense is terrible.

19. UAB +11 at Florida: Florida is laying double digits against a competent FBS opponent? The hell?

20. UCLA at USC -15.5: UCLA's run defense is one of the worst you will ever see at the Power 5 level. USC has Ronald Jones II and Stephen Carr, plus Sam Darnold throwing off play action.

21. ULM +37 at Auburn: This is just begging for a back-door cover. Auburn coach Gus Malzahn has been all-in on keeping the pedal down since the LSU, game, but this is a major sandwich spot between Georgia and Alabama coming to town. ULM's offense is sneakily awesome.

22. Virginia +20 at Miami: Miami has played two awesome games in as many weeks, and it deserves credit for that high level of play. However, the other games are also still on the resume, and this is a big letdown spot.

23. Arizona at Oregon PK: Arizona is not a great road team, and its run defense is rather poor. With quarterback Justin Herbert back, I expect the Ducks to simply outscore the Wildcats.

Mizzou’s offense is really scary, and 17 other betting notes from college football’s Week 12

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A few things you might’ve missed this weekend.

Every Friday, I publish my college football gambling column. And every week, I review what happened with my wins and losses. Since I play a lot of games, I figured the review would make a solid column. I went 12-11 this week, which is not profitable, but am 130-92 ATS on the year, which is great.

Check your tickets and your watches

Did you know that games must go 55 minutes for Vegas to consider them as having action? So blowouts like Delaware State vs. Florida State, in which 10-minute quarters were used, do not count.

Doing everything except scoring points

Arkansas State outgained Texas State 469-200, won the turnover battle 1-0, had a 23-11 first-down edge, and held the ball for 40 (!) minutes, yet didn’t cover the 26 because it couldn’t convert short yardage situations around midfield. The Red Wolves won 30-12.

Opposite day in Oxford

Ole Miss rushed for 200-plus and Texas A&M threw for almost 300. That's the exact opposite of what was expected, and 5.6 YPA for Ole Miss through the air is bad.

Missouri's run game is for real

It’s not simply a result of playing Florida and Tennessee when those looked to have quit. The four teams that average more than 5 YPC in SEC play are Alabama, Auburn, UGA, and ... yup, Missouri. In the last two weeks, Missouri QB Drew Lock is 23-of-53 (43 percent), yet has a QB rating of 154 because he is averaging 8.5 YPA. On the year, Lock has still been the SEC’s highest-rated passer.

WTF, UCLA run defense?

I don't feel bad about laying more than two touchdowns with USC. I'd do it again. USC’s run game has been awesome, and UCLA might have the worst rushing defense in the Power 5. The Bruins holding the Trojans under 4 YPC is one of the most unforeseeable results of the year.

New Mexico State’s offense is really good ... when QB Tyler Rogers plays

Unfortunately, Rogers got hurt and the backup, Nick Jeanty, threw three interceptions as the Aggies lost to Louisiana.

Three picks from the backup hurts.

QB getting sidelined will change a game, Part Deux

Not that Michigan would have won the game had QB Brandon Peters not been hurt, but it certainly could have covered the spread of 8 in a game it lost 24-10. Peters’ QB rating was an OK 123. Backup John O’Korn posted a 44.

Ever seen a negative QB rating?

No real need to dig deep into the Northwestern thrashing of Minnesota. QB Demry Croft put up one of the all-time worst stat lines. Passes to his own team: 2. Passes to Northwestern defenders: 3. Passes that fell incomplete: 6. QB rating: -3.5.

More interceptions than completions

Unsurprisingly, Minnesota did not cover.

North Texas allowed 534 rushing yards ... and covered

Army ran the ball 67 times for 534 yards, but North Texas had explosive passes of 68, 48, and 45 and won 52-49. What a contrast of styles.

Iowa allowed six sacks to Purdue

And the Hawkeyes had just 258 yards of total offense. I’m glad I got the cover with the Boilermakers, but what an awful game to watch.

Cal and Stanford both had 5.9 yards per play

However, Stanford has Bryce Love and Cal does not, and Love broke out with a 57-yard TD run when the Cardinal needed it. But Cal did cover the 16 points, losing 17-14.

Georgia outgained Kentucky 8.7-4.4 on a YPP basis

Kentucky has been statistically lucky, but is not good.

Bad bet: UAB

Credit to Florida for showing up and fighting a reasonably competent UAB team. The Gators dominated them like they haven’t any other opponent this season. The Blazers ran only 38 plays.

Bad bet: Oregon State

I said this on Friday:

I don't really like this play. I looked for a reason to spike it, but I cannot find a good enough reason to. My system this year is 37 games over .500, so play it and hold your nose.

Arizona State ran for 265 yards through three quarters and got up 40-10 before the Beavers put up some garbage-time scores to pull to 40-24.

Bad Bet: Cincinnati

Pathetic effort by the Bearcats, who allowed East Carolina to outgain them 578-326. East Carolina is not a good team, but it’s capable of that if the opponent doesn’t seem to care about being there.

Duke has Georgia Tech’s number

In the last four meetings, Duke has won by 23, lost by 3, won by 14, and won by 6.

Boise State outgained Air Force 7.8-4.6 on a per-play basis

That is domination. Boise had passes of 87, 39, 36, 33, 30, 29, and 15 yards.

Keep an eye on Armani Rogers at UNLV

The redshirt freshman threw for 211 and ran for 193 in the Rebels’ win over New Mexico, including some awesome throws on the final drive. I’ll be looking to play UNLV over its win total next year due to Rogers. UNLV lists Rogers at 6’5, 225, and he looks and plays every bit of that. There are a lot of defenders in the secondaries of the Mountain West who simply can’t handle that size.

NCAA Football: Hawaii at UNLVStephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

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