Season record: 130-92 (59 percent) following a 12-11 Week 12; 38 games over .500 is a much better year than I expected. A breakdown of my Week 12 wins and losses is here. This is one of my favorite columns to write for SB Nation, as I enjoy doing it and it helps me follow college football. Thanks for reading, and I hope you and yours have a great Thanksgiving.
Notes on games I didn’t bet
I think Auburn has a real chance to beat Alabama outright, but just four points against Nick Saban is not enough for me to pull the trigger. And I can’t bet Ohio State vs. Michigan without knowing if quarterback Brandon Peters is playing.
Thursday
1 and 2. Ole Miss +15 at Mississippi State and Over 65: There is not much time to prepare for this game, and both teams can really score.
Friday
3. Baylor +25 at TCU: This is just too many points, by my numbers. TCU's offense has not been great of late, and the Bears missed covering last week by a half point.
4. Cal +7.5 at UCLA: I think Cal goes on the road and beats the Bruins in a major letdown spot.
5. Idaho at New Mexico State -9: New Mexico State well could have covered last week if not for a QB injury. Idaho's offense is terrible, and I'm laying the points without knowing if Tyler Rogers will play for the Aggies.
6. Iowa -3 at Nebraska: Iowa was the victim of some poor turnover luck last week. Since the calendar turned to November, Nebraska is allowing 7.1 yards/play. Even the lesser offenses Big Red has faced, like Purdue and Northwestern, have put up north of 5.5 yards/play.
7. Miami at Pitt +14: Pitt has been playing much improved of late, despite two close and late losses. I'll take these points all day.
8. New Mexico +20.5 at San Diego State: SDSU has actually been playing quite well since a mid-season slump, but this is just too many points against a New Mexico that showed up last week, though it did lose.
9. Texas State +25 at Troy: Texas State is a bad football team, while Troy is pretty solid. Still, this is about a touchdown more than I thought the line would be. Perhaps I am missing something.
10. Virginia Tech at UVA +7.5: Virginia Tech's offense has struggled a lot down the stretch, and I'll take a spunky home underdog.
Saturday
11. Wisconsin at Minnesota +17.5: It would be very easy for the Badgers to overlook the Gophers here.
12. BYU -3 at Hawaii: BYU just lost at home to UMass, true, but Hawaii's defense is horrible, and the Cougars were unlucky in the turnover department a week ago.
14. Indiana +3 at Purdue: I think Indiana will go into Purdue and win outright.
15. Louisville -10 at Kentucky: Lamar Jackson wants revenge for last year, and Kentucky's defense probably won't be able to stop him.
16. North Texas at Rice +11.5: I’ve backed North Texas and won. Rice probably should have beaten ODU last weekend, so I'll take them at home on senior day.
17. Northwestern at Illinois +17: Fading NU has not been a great idea of late, but this is just a lot of points for the Purple to lay. (I said the same thing last week and lost, FWIW).
18. UNLV +3 at Nevada: I am a big believer in UNLV QB Armani Rogers.
19. Washington State at Washington -9.5: Washington State on the road has been really bad. Seattle is not an easy place to play.
20 and 21. Arkansas State -8 at Louisiana Monroe and Over 69: Arkansas State and Louisiana Monroe can really score, but I trust the Red Wolves' efense to get enough stops to win by two scores.
22 and 23. Southern Miss +3 at Marshall and Under 48: Southern Miss' defense has been playing lights out. Marshall has played good defense all year. I think the Golden Eagles have a chance to win outright in a low-scoring game.
Season record: 141-104 (58 percent) following a 11-12 Week 12; 33 games over .500 is a much better year than I expected.
I simply don’t like that many games this weekend. Part of that is that I have been so busy, I feel like I have not had as much time to go through my normal process of taking numbers and then checking them against non-statistical factors.
1. Stanford at USC -4: Stanford has been great in this game historically, but I believe the Trojans have the Pac-12 Championship’s better players. The matchup of Ronald Jones and Bryce Love should be awesome to watch. The QB advantage goes to the Trojans.
2.Memphis +7.5 at UCF: The Tigers have been playing great football, and UCF easily could have lost to USF last weekend. This is a battle of two strong AAC teams. Memphis can score with the Knights.
3. Georgia at Auburn -2: Why would Georgia suddenly be able to block Auburn? It couldn’t when they played a few weeks earlier. Kerryon Johnson should be able to get a few snaps, but if not, Auburn still has plenty of playmakers.
4. Clemson vs. Miami Under 47: When Clemson has known it wouldn’t need to score many points this year, it simply hasn’t. The Tigers let their defense win it against Auburn and Florida State, and I doubt they’ll take risks here in the ACC title game.
5. UMass at FIU -1: FIU’s offense got on track last weekend, and the Golden Eagles should play enough defense to win this. Credit to UMass for playing well of late, but FIU has been playing tough as well when not facing a tough out like Florida Atlantic.
6. ULM +27.5 at Florida State: The Warhawks can really score. FSU might be motivated to make a bowl game, but motivated does not necessarily mean organized. If you don’t have the guts to take ULM, consider the over 67.
College football recruiting is getting a major change, and pretty much everyone has the same plan for the first time through.
College football’s first-ever early signing period arrives in 2017, from Dec. 20 to 22. For college football, it represents a big change from the existing February signing day because of the accelerated timetable, though the February date is not going away.
I was really excited to call my coaching contacts and chat about how each would go about the process.
I planned to share a variety of responses with our readers. I granted coaches anonymity so they would not let their opponents know about their grand strategies, which I figured would be different from team to team.
I was wrong.
Conversation after conversation went the same. That’s still news; it’s just not as exciting.
And maybe I should not be surprised. The principle guiding the common strategy of the schools is to maximize the leverage given to them by NCAA rules.
So here is how the vast majority of college teams will attack early signing day.
“With few exceptions, we expect to sign every verbal commitment we have. This is [now] the main Signing Day.”
If a player has been offered and has verbally committed to the university, that team expects him to sign. Coaches have put in months, if not years, of work toward their current verbal commitments. They do not want to spend another second ensuring those players sign. In fact, that has long been one of their biggest annoyances with the recruiting process.
To put it another way, a lot of schools think upward of 80 percent of their recruiting classes will sign in December, with only a few players waiting until February.
The December early signing period is now the big trip to the grocery store, while February’s traditional National Signing Day is going to become the quick stop for a gallon of milk.
And you can bet the focus on the players who did not sign early will be extremely intense in the six weeks between the early signing period and the February National Signing Day.
“If we’re waiting on a test score, we might ask the commit to wait until February.”
Sometimes, a team will accept a verbal commitment from a player with the understanding that he needs to improve his ACT/SAT score or grades. Verbal commitments are not binding, so a team is under no duty to actually send a letter of intent to sign, even to a verbally committed prospect. If a kid still needs a test score or some grades in core classes, don’t be surprised if a team asks him to wait, because they don’t want to waste a spot on a kid who won’t qualify.
Other commits might be asked to wait a day.
Even with anonymity, few coaches wanted to acknowledge the possibility that they might ask a committed prospect to wait until Day 2 or 3 of the three-day signing period, but you can bet it will happen. Imagine a team wants to take one more wide receiver and is hoping to land Player A, but holds a commitment from Player B. It’s easy to picture that team asking Player B to wait until Player A is officially signed elsewhere.
A version of this happened in recent years on February’s Signing Day, too. A team would ask a recruit to wait until later in the afternoon, after a better player at the same position was signing in the morning. If the team did land the player it really wanted, the committed kid would need to quickly find a backup plan.
“If you’re verbally committed, and you don’t sign, you’re not committed,” a Power 5 coach said.
Talk is cheap, and nowhere is that more true than with recruiting. Coaches are really eager to see if some recruits who might be wishy-washy in their commitments actually sign on the dotted line.
For coaches, this is going to provide clarity. If a prospect doesn’t sign, especially if he hadn’t warned coaches that he planned to wait, then the team gets a clear message that it might need to look elsewhere to fill that spot.
“We’ll probably have five scholarships left. We won’t reach just to fill spots.”
While teams do want to sign the vast majority of currently committed players, they won’t be sending out offers to sign kids just to fill spots during December. That will still happen before the traditional February date.
“If a school hasn’t offered you by now, you’re not a priority for them,” is a line several coaches said they use.
This isn’t a lie, by the way. Some kids will be better off if they sign with smaller programs where they’ll be featured on offense or defense and given time to develop.
Small schools are going to put pressure on kids to sign and not wait for bigger offers.
A common frustration of teams that don’t normally recruit with the elites: When they do secure a yes from a top prospect, it’s difficult to carry it all the way until the first Wednesday in February.
With an accelerated timetable, those schools are feeling better about their chances to get those big fish in the boat. For that reason, they’re going to try every trick in the book to get these kids to sign and not take their recruitments into February, when the big powers can turn some of their focus to picking off unsigned players.
But big schools, especially those who have made coaching changes, will pull out the stops to get kids to wait.
There is no doubt that the early signing period benefits schools that did not make a coaching change. Twenty teams, including almost half of the SEC, changed coaches this offseason.
Those schools are working on incredibly accelerated timelines, compared to the normal plan. Many have partial coaching staffs, and in the span of two or three weeks, a new staff must determine what it has on its existing rosters, the state of its commitment list, which of those commitments are solid, which fit the new scheme, and which recruits who are uncommitted or committed to other schools might be interested in coming.
“We have no idea how this will work,” said a coach moving from a Group of 5 school to a Power 5 job. “We’re going to try to flip any kid from our former class who we think could play at this level, but there aren’t that many.”
“You’re the best player in their class. They’re not going to pull your offer if you wait until February,” is a line you can expect coaches at big programs to use on good players committed to smaller schools, in an attempt to get them to not sign early.
This could be bad for players
In the spring I wrote about some of the ways players could lose with this arrangement. The biggest concern is the lack of an out clause for players who sign with schools that subsequently change coaches. But there are other ways they could lose:
Those who have not made enough academic progress to qualify might not be able to sign early with their schools of choice and could see their spots go to less-talented players who are more certain to qualify.
Options could also be limited for prospects who are late bloomers.
Sometimes, prospects are not discovered until December or January, as programs review senior film. Under the old system, scholarships were not being filled en masse until February. With the new early date, the number of options for late bloomers could decrease.
Prospects who feel pressured to sign early could also lose out on offers from bigger schools, if they sign and foreclose the opportunity to wait for better options.
College football recruiting is getting a major change
The SB Nation College Football Recruiting Podcast explains the Early Signing Period.
SB Nation’s College Football Recruiting Podcast returns with Bud Elliott and Morgan Moriarty to discuss the new Early Signing Period. Subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Google Play Music, etc.
What a school or quarterback recruit does impacts everyone else in the race to sign a QB.
Quarterback is the most important position in football. Most college programs want to carry four on scholarship, which means most schools will sign a QB every year.
Typically, only about 20 or 25 are rated four- or five-stars, so demand for elite QBs far outpaces supply. And teams usually do not move on from their No. 1 targets to accept a commitment from another until it is clear that they are out of the running for their first choice. Lesser-rated recruits know this.
Given that teams rarely rotate quarterbacks, a top QB will often want to reserve his spot with the school of his choice. QB is also the noted position of leadership, so a committed QB often become a class’ lead recruiter.
Every year, we track the dominoes as they fall. QB1 picks school A, so School B moves on to QB2 as School C moves on to QB3. But then QB1 decommits from School A, and the cycle is thrown into chaos.
It's like securing a date for prom. Schools must properly assess a prospect's interest, and prospects must not wait too long for offers that never come. Overplaying one’s hand can be as bad as underplaying it.
Winter 2015: The first dominoes
Sometimes, QBs commit so early that the recruiting industry has not caught up to them. Most schools are not going to accept commitments four years in advance, unless they are confident the player will be a special talent.
This cycle, it starts in Nov. 2015, more than two years ahead of Signing Day.
North Carolina has started the 2018 cycle by adding James Foster, of Montgomery (Ala.). Foster has just finished his sophomore season and is not yet rated.
Christmas comes early for Chris Petersen. The Washington Huskies finish at 7-6, and they land Jacob Sirmon of Bothell (Wa.). This is a celebrated get for the Huskies after missing local five-stars Max Browne and Jacob Eason in previous years.
And Auburn has added Joey Gatewood, a massive 6’5, 230-pound prospect. Gatewood’s throwing is a work in progress, but his size and athleticism are a good fit for the Tigers’ spread-option attack.
February 2016: USC makes its move
Ten weeks after Washington got its man, USC lands QB Matt Corral, of Westlake Village (Calif.), beating UCLA and Texas A&M. Corral is considered a five-star QB, and some believe he could be the best in the country.
May 2016: Notre Dame strikes gold
Notre Dame has gone to the historic land of QBs, Western Pennsylvania. Phil Jurkovec, of Gibsonia (Pa.) is rated as the No. 1 dual-threat in the country, a five-star, and the No. 9 overall player. A May visit to South Bend sealed the deal, so Alabama, Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Tennessee, Penn State, UCLA, and Pitt will look at other options.
Jurkovec is an an excellent athlete on the gridiron and basketball court, and should have time to develop at Notre Dame behind former blue-chip QBs DeShone Kizer and Brandon Wimbush. Urban Meyer had been personally recruiting him, but will now likely have to turn the heat up on Georgia QB Emory Jones. Jurkovec has great size, at 6’5, 200 pounds at the end of his sophomore season.
A lot of schools are still figuring out who to offer, which is fine, considering the class of 2018 will not sign for another 20 months.
June 2016: Kentucky lands a QB with interest from big programs
The summer is always a popular time for quarterbacks to commit, as they attend camps at schools and work with potential future position coaches. Many schools will not accept a commitment unless the player comes to camp.
It’s 592 days until National Signing Day 2018, but Kentucky fans are optimistic about holding onto Williams. Florida State, Florida, and other top schools want him to come to camps, where he could potentially earn committable offers. But Kentucky isn’t waiting. This could also signal a shift in Kentucky’s offense toward using more quarterback mobility than in a typical air raid attack.
July 2016: Stanford and Ohio State strike in the Southeast
Wake Forest gets a big pledge from three-star Sam Hartman, the No. 17 pro-style QB for 2018. There is always risk that things could change if bigger schools come along.
Gunnar Holmberg of Wake Forect (NC) commits to Duke, his only FBS offer. We’ll see if there are any other that come his way. Duke is not a premiere program, but a Duke offer comes from David Cutcliffe, whose eye for QBs is well-respected.
Jack West, a four-star from Saraland, Ala. commits to Stanford over some big-time offers from Alabama, Auburn, Michigan, and Louisville.
West, who told SB Nation during the Under Armour Future 50 event that his favorite quarterback growing up was AJ McCarron, is an Alabama kid. But Alabama’s 2017 class has two quarterbacks, Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones, in addition to a potential true-freshman starter, Jalen Hurts, and other QBs on scholarship.
The path to playing at Stanford is more clear. Stanford has now landed commitments from Southeastern QBs in consecutive classes, with West joining 2017 QB Davis Mills of Atlanta.
It’s not clear who Alabama will pursue, but the Southeast is loaded in 2018.
Arkansas landing Connor Noland is big for Bret Bielema, keeping the top-10 QB in-state. He picked the Razorbacks over out-of-state offers including Penn State, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss. Noland, from Greenwood, has committed to play both baseball and football.
After missing on Jurkovec, Ohio State rebounds as Emory Jones, 2018’s No. 2 dual-threat, commits to Ohio State over Tennessee and Georgia after attending a Buckeye camp. We’ll see if Jones, from Franklin, Ga., will keep his commitment to play away from home.
Tennessee and Georgia are still in play for another big-time QB from north of Atlanta by the name of Trevor Lawrence — who is regarded by many as the best player in the country overall.
August 2016: Oklahoma goes to Cali
Oklahoma lands the nation’s No. 5 pro style QB in Cameron Rising, though he held offers from Michigan, LSU, UCLA, and Alabama. The Sooners make Rising, a native of Newbury Park, Calif. feel at home and a true priority.
Cade Fortin commits to Texas A&M over Louisville, Oklahoma State, UNC, and West Virginia. Oklahoma State still has options like Tanner Mordecai, Casey Thompson, and Spencer Sanders. Considering Fortin’s from Suwannee, Ga., his recruitment could become interesting if Georgia starts recruiting him hard. But at this point, Georgia has targets higher.
And Colson Yankoff, of Couer d’Alene (Idaho), picks Oregon over Utah, Duke, and Washington State, among others. The four-star has good size and is athletic, but the competition he faces in Idaho is rather suspect.
Thirteen of 65 Power 5 schools have secured a QB commitment, more than a year and a half before Signing Day 2018.
Sept. 2016: Teams continue to evaluate options as high school and college seasons begin
Oct. and Nov. 2016: Oklahoma State and Cal make moves
Oklahoma State lands four-starSpencer Sanders away from his home-state schools of Baylor and Texas Tech. It comes seven weeks after losing out on Cade Fortin to Texas A&M. Sanders, a 6’2, 190-pounder, is the No. 29 prospect out of the state and the No. 8 dual-threat in the class.
Three-star Adrian Martinez commits to Cal despite offers from Utah, Washington State, and Colorado. The No. 15 dual-threat, from Fresno, Calif, is a solid pickup.
December 2016: Penn State and Clemson pick superstars from the Peach State
Texas hires coach Tom Herman, who played his college football at Cal Lutheran University. So did Nicko Rising, the father of Oklahoma QB commit Cam Rising. Will Texas be able to get in on Rising’s recruitment?
Penn State head coach James Franklin is able to land four-star quarterback Justin Fields. The Tennessee staff recruited the Kennesaw. Ga., native hard, but the edge goes to the Big Ten champs.
Georgia is still expected to pursue Fields, depending on where things fall, as the Bulldogs wait on Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall recruit nationally.
Colson Yankoff’s commitment to Oregon was short-lived, lasting less than six months. After the Ducks fired head coach Mark Helfrich, Yankoff steps back. Since his June commitment, Yankoff has added offers from Tennessee and Nebraska. TCU, Baylor, North Carolina, Oregon State, Missouri, Cal, Washington, and others join after he backs off his pledge.
Shortly before Christmas, a huge domino falls, as five-star quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 player overall, has picked Clemson. Lawrence has it all: size, arm, release, accuracy, instincts, and athleticism. While the Tigers do have a commitment from 2017 five-star QB Hunter Johnson, who is set to enroll to start the spring semester, Lawrence is viewed as a superior prospect.
In fact, Lawrence is regarded by many as more talented than any QB recruit in the class of 2017, even though Lawrence is a year younger than the class ahead of him. If Deshaun Watson turns pro, the Tigers will have a lot of options to continue his legacy. Out of Cartersville, Ga., Lawrence is a major win in the Peach State, a key stronghold for the Tigers.
Georgia is still expected to recruit Lawrence. However, this could be tricky, with Jacob Eason entrenched as the starter and 2017 four-star Jake Fromm set to enroll. It’s possible that this commitment allows Georgia to focus on flipping Jones or Fields from OSU or Penn State, respectively.
But Lawrence is the No. 1 prospect and lives just 80 miles from campus, so the Bulldogs will likely keep recruiting him. Georgia has to assess how committed Lawrence is to Clemson, and compare his commitment to those of Fields and Jones. Losing top Peach State QB Watson to Clemson in 2014 stung, and losing Lawrence would be a similar gut punch.
Another quarterback who went out-of-state is San Marcos (Calif.) four-star Jack Tuttle, whocommits to Utah over Washington State, Wisconsin, and Arizona State. The Utes made Tuttle a big priority.
Who would’ve thought that Vanderbilt would end up with 2018’s No. 11 pro-style quarterback? Well, Allan Walterspledged to the Commodores. The Highstown, N.J., native picked Vandy over Rutgers, Michigan, Alabama, Louisville, Texas A&M, and West Virginia.
Three-star Colorado QB Blake Stenstrom commits to Colorado, his only offer. Strenstrom is the son of former Stanford and NFL quarterback Steve Stenstrom.
Jan.-Feb. 2017: New names emerge as Miami shows faith in an intriguing, but inconsistent talent
James Foster, who committed to North Carolina back in Nov. 2015, has decommitted. Missouri is considered the top contender.
Brennan Armstrong, a three-star from Shelby, Ohio, is the first quarterback for what will be P.J. Fleck’s first full class. Armstrong picks the Gophers over Virginia and North Carolina.
Four-star Artur Sitkowski has committed to Miami over South Carolina, UNC, Florida, LSU, Tennessee, and UCLA. Florida was considering him, but they have quarterbacks higher on the board.
This is a bit of a gamble for the Hurricanes, but one that could pay off. Sitkowski has a great frame, has a big arm, and is athletic. But many schools are playing wait-and-see with him, wanting to get him into camp this summer and see how he does this fall.
The reason? Sitkowski, who announced his transfer to powerhouse IMG Academy from New Jersey in December, had a rough junior season. He threw for just 1,190 yards and had five touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
Virginia Tech head coach Justin Fuente adds his second quarterback to his 2018 class in four-star Quincy Patterson. The Chicago, Ill. prospect picks the Hokies over Mississippi State, NC State, and Illinois. Given Dejuan Ellis’ pledge to Virginia Tech, we’ll see if both end up signing with the Hokies.
A major name is emerging on the West Coast: Dorian Thompson-Robinson. From Bishop Gorman in Las Vegas, he hasn’t been a starter, but was the backup to star 2017 QB Tate Martell, who signed with Ohio State.
“DTR” tells SB Nation that he knows Michigan and UCLA will make his final group, whenever he pares it down. He is also excited about a recent Florida State offer.
March-April 2017: Committed stars are visiting other schools?
Quarterback Justin Fields seems like he’ll be one of the darlings of recruiting. He drew rave reviews at Nike’s regional recruiting camp last weekend in Orlando, where he measured in at 6’3 and ran a 4.51-second 40-yard dash.
Fields, who is also a baseball star, is seeing his stock rocket, and is now considered the No. 1 dual-threat and the No. 2 overall QB.
While Fields maintains he is committed to Penn State, other schools, including Florida and Florida State, are turning up the heat on the Southern prospect.
Jack Tuttle looks great at the Los Angeles Nike Opening Regional, leaving many believing that the Utes got the jump on Pac-12 rivals by going all-in to secure his commitment early.
Four-star Colson Yankoff, the former Oregon commit,picks Washington despite Chris Peterson already having a verbal from Jacob Sirmon. We’ll see if both end up signing with UW, but our guess would be that one of them wavers. With Yankoff off the market, Nebraska, TCU, and Cal have to turn to other options.
Wyatt Rector, a three-star out of Leesburg, Fla., commits to Virginia, his only listed offer. Rector reportedly was told by UVA coaches that he shared physical characteristics of former 6,000-yard BYU quarterback Taysom Hill, whom the staff coached in Provo.
Another three-star that commits to his first offer is Coran Taylor, from Peoria, Ill, who jumps on Illinois. He led his Periora team to a Class 5A State Championship.
NC State’s Devin Leary is the first quarterback for the Wolfpack’s class. He committed over West Virginia, Wake Forest, and Maryland. The four-star from Sicklerville, N.J. tells 247Sports that head coach Dave Doeren’s staff won him over.
The nation’s No. 13 dual-threat, four-star Tyler DeSue, commits to Maryland over UCF and NC State. With Leary committing to NC State, UCF recruited DeSue hard. Instead, his verbal is to the Terps, who could have their second blue-chip QB signee in two years.
One of new Texas coach Tom Herman’s biggest commits comes from four-star Casey Thompson, who has committed to the Longhorns. While Thompson did have big offers like Miami, Ohio State, Oklahoma, and Penn State, it’s unclear how many would still have accepted his commitment, given that they all have taken a QB. North Carolina was pursuing him strongly.
Thompson is actually an OU legacy; his father, Charles, played quarterback. But the nation’s No. 7 dual-threat is a great fit for Herman’s offense.
Emory Jones, from just outside Atlanta, maintains he is “110 percent” committed to Ohio State. But he tells SB Nation that he plans to visit Florida, Florida State, and Alabama. He also took a secret visit to Georgia, the news of which he was hoping would not get out.
"I did visit Georgia, but it wasn't supposed to get out," Jones said. "I went on a Friday and stayed until Sunday. I just wanted to hang out and talk some football with Coach [Jim] Chaney and chill with some of the players and Coach [kirby] Smart."
Jones visiting schools much closer to his home cannot have the Buckeyes feeling great, but that he made a return visit to Columbus in April probably helps.
Justin Fields visits Tallahassee in April after his 7v7 team played a tournament there. The Seminoles and Gators are turning up the heat on the Penn State commit, but the Georgia native made sure to visit Penn State for its spring game and maintains that he is committed.
Three-star James Fostercommits to Missouri over fellow SEC offers from Tennessee and Georgia. Foster, a native of Montgomery, Ala., was Barry Odom top quarterback target. Foster was committed to UNC from Nov. 2015 until his decommitment late last year.
Having missed out on several targets, Tennessee has landed QB Michael Penix, of Tampa Bay. Penix is an intriguing lefty who may have become an option for in-state schools. Miami already has a commitment, and Florida and Florida State have higher priorities.
“I wanted to be sure so I visited more schools and even returned to Oklahoma for their spring game. Again, Oklahoma came out on top. AND THEN I WENT TO TEXAS and got that feeling Coach Smith told me about. I could feel the energy throughout the entire program — the coaches, players, recruits and fans. I want to be a part of building something special, something historic and know that Texas is the place for me.”
This is a major strike in the rivalry, even if Rising might not be as good of a fit for Herman’s offense as fellow UT commit Casey Thompson. But Texas only has two scholarship quarterbacks as of April 2017, so getting to four could help cement the position.
“I’ve been knowing,” Thompson said of Rising’s commitment and whether or not it impacts his pledge to Texas. “Me and the [Texas] coaches have a very good relationship. I knew they planned to take 2 from the jump. Their current QB room is thin!”
In addition, Oklahoma offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley is now following Oklahoma State commit Spencer Sanders on Twitter, though Oklahoma is yet to offer.
His commitment is well-timed for Jim Mora’s Bruins. They are likely to lose rising junior Josh Rosen to the NFL draft after this season, leaving a hole that’ll need to be filled. Thompson-Robinson will be arriving in Los Angeles just as a spot opens up. He could torment Pac-12 defenses for several years.
Previewing the spring and summer
Where does Michigan turn? Word in the industry is that the Wolverines are willing to accept a commit from Orlando (Fla.) QB Joe Milton, who has been high on Florida and Georgia. Milton has recently visited all three, plus Florida State, which has declined to offer.
If Milton can learn to change the speed and arc on his throws to fit the situation and read defenses more quickly, he could be a beast at the college level. But with two consecutive seasons at the high school level under 50 percent completions (46 percent as a junior), that is not a guarantee.
The Wolverines are also involved with Chanler (Ariz.)’s Tyler Shough, a prospect whose stock has skyrocketed thanks to the camp and 7v7 circuits.
Kentucky held Jarren Williams’ commitment for 10 months. They couldn’t hold him for the 20 months between June 2016 and National Signing Day. The Lawrenceville (Ga.) prospect is being pursued by Alabama, Florida, and Florida State, though it is believed the bigger schools want him to come to camp and throw over the summer before accepting a commitment. The decommitment does not come as a surprise, as Williams has visited many schools in April.
And Cal lost its commitment from Adrian Martinez, who is now widely expected to pick Tennessee, which already has a quarterback but may be looking to take two.
As of April 25, 15 of the current top 20 quarterbacks are off the board.
That means if schools want to get a super elite prospect, they will likely need to flip someone like Jones or Fields.
Four-star North Charleston (SC) prospect Dakereon Joyner holds a lot of offers, but only some schools want him as a QB, something he wants to be. Clemson wants him as an athlete. But South Carolina and NC State have offered him to play QB.
Lefty three-star Cammon Cooper is one to watch. Out of Lehi (Utah), Cooper has recently added offers from Georgia and Tennessee and is high on Washington State and Arizona State, he told SB Nation.
Corona (Calif.)’s Tanner Mckee is a large pro-style passer to watch. He has made recent visits to Georgia and Duke, picking up offers.
It looks like a battle between LSU and TCU for Bossier City (La.)’s Justin Rogers. Rogers is an intriguing option who keeps getting better.
Mississippi State looks to be sitting pretty for Sachse (Texas) QB Jalen Mayden. Mayden plans to commit on May 23, and Mississippi State would seem like a fit, as the Bulldogs ask their QBs to run a lot while developing passing skills at their own pace.
Remember, though, that despite quarterback options drying up, there are still nine months until Signing Day.
The evaluation period is just beginning, during which coaches hit the road to visit prospects at their schools during spring practice.
New offers fly out during this period, as do offers to attend summer camps. New prospects emerging and top recruits flipping will make this a fascinating race, and we’ll be updating this diary as often as news breaks.
May 2017 is for a Michigan man
Shortly after returning from its trip to Italy, Michigan indeed landed Milton, an intriguing prospect discussed thoroughly in the March-April section, above. Georgia is still involved with McKee, Fields, and Emory Jones. Florida and Florida State are involved with Fields and Williams, the former Kentucky commit, as is Georgia as of early May. Florida State has also offered Tyler Shough (discussed above).
Wisconsin adds Chase Wolf, and Boston College adds Matt Valeccee.
And industry chatter now suggests that Martinez, the recent Cal decommitment, could be headed to Oklahoma, not Tennessee. But that chatter turns out to be wrong, as Martinez commits to Tennessee just a few days later.
Pitt has also added QB Nick Patti, of Montvale (NJ). And Wisconsin pulled the offer of committed QB Ben Bryant, who was tweeting about his recent offer from Georgia. Because schools cannot comment on unsigned prospects, we do not know both sides of the Bryant story
And interestingly, after offers from Florida State and UNC, Tulsa lost QB commitment Jace Ruder, who decommitted. With big offers coming in for the Norton (KS) prospect, there may be a major sleeper in the town of less than 3,000 people.
TCU has landed Justin Rogers, the No. 3 prospect out of Louisiana. It’s a huge pick-up for the Horned Frogs, who will need Rogers by the time he steps on campus in Fort Worth.
You’ve got Kenny Hill and Shawn Robinson, but behind them are Grayson Muehlstein and walk-on Jordan Kitna (along with a few other walk-ons). By the time Rogers gets to campus Hill will be gone, and Robinson will most likely be the starter. Similar to this season, where Robinson enrolled early and was bumped to No. 2 on the depth chart this spring, Rogers will have a good chance, as an early enrollee himself, to jump up the depth chart in spring ball to at least No. 2.
Oklahoma has landed three-star quarterback Tanner Mordecai, who makes for a a solid back-up plan to replace the loss of Cameron Rising.
June brings camp season and movement
The Elite 11 Finals always provide an excellent chance to compare top QBs against one another. But they also bring rumor and resulting drama.
The big bombshell to drop, just shortly after the Finals concluded, is Justin Fields decommitting from Penn State. The move was not unexpected, but was still followed with great interest. The top four teams emerging seem to be Auburn, Florida, Florida State, and Georgia, in no specific order.
Auburn has the Cam Newton connection, as Fields idolizes the former Tigers QB and plays on his 7v7 team, which is sponsored by Under Armour, as is Auburn. If 7v7 was like AAU in basketball recruiting, the apparel company connection might be seen as the most important piece in this recruitment. But football is different, so we’ll wait to see if it matters. Auburn also has a wide open QB room after transfer QB Jarrett Stidham leaves in a year or two.
Florida, having just accepted a transfer from QB Malik Zaire may offer the most immediate playing time, especially if class of 2016 QB Feleipe Franks is not developing as fast as UF would like. And Fields is a better prospect at the same age than Franks.
Florida State has Jimbo Fisher, the coach among the four schools with the clear best track record for developing quarterbacks, and has some room given that 2015 signee De’Andre Johnson and 2016 signee Malik Henry are no longer with the program.
And Georgia is the in-state school, which cannot be ignored, but it has signed five-star QBs in back-to-back years, so playing time might be the toughest in Athens. His sister has also committed to play softball for Georgia.
Fields took his time in making the decision to decommit, so it’s a good bet that he will take some visits before making a new commitment, though I’d expect it before the end of summer.
Where will Penn State turn after losing Fields? The two obvious candidates are NC State commit Devin Leary, of New Jersey, and Virginia Tech commit Quincy Patterson, of Chicago. New Jersey is a traditional stronghold for Penn State.
What about Alabama? Folks with whom I spoke at Elite 11 believe Alabama is trying to flip USC commit Matt Corral and Utah commit Jake Tuttle. The key to getting any West Coast kid to leave California and come to the deep South is to get him on campus for multiple visits.
And keep an eye on Oregon with Colson Yankoff. Yes, the Yankoff who decommitted from the Ducks and flipped to Washington after Mark Helfrich was fired. Oregon is still pursuing him aggressively.
Louisville has added an intriguing player in Jordan Travis, of Palm Beach (Fla.). Travis was starting to pick up interest from some more Power 5 schools.
North Carolina has received a commitment from Tyler Shough. He verballed to the heels over Michigan. The four-star is the No. 10 pro-style QB in the country.
Matt Corral has decommitted from USC, and the five-star is officially on the market. It’ll be interesting to see which schools will go after the Cali native in the coming months, and if the rumors about Southeastern QBs showing increased interest are true.
Corral and fellow five-star Justin Fields spoke at The Opening Finals about similar schools that are recruiting the two, including Florida, Georgia, Auburn, Alabama, and Florida State. The two have upcoming visits to the schools on the horizon, which should clear things up in terms of where they end up. Both also said that the two having the same offers doesn’t bother them, as well.
July sees new commits, visits
Justin Fields has made good on his word from The Opening, visiting all of his top schools since returning home. His most recent visits were to Florida State, and Florida.
The Fields race is now down to Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Georgia, and potentially USC, as the Florida Gators took a commitment from Matt Corral, a fellow five-star who was down to Georgia and Florida. Most seem to be picking Georgia or FSU as the landing spot for fields.
Florida desperately needs a good quarterback, so it’s a smart move to take Corral and not wait around to see what Fields does, as Georgia is believed to be doing. Georgia has the luxury of doing so after signing elite prospects in Jacob Eason and Jake Fromm in back-to-back years.
Meanwhile, the recruiting world waits to see if Fields will commit before his senior season begins, or if he will wait to take some official visits.
A slow August and September
Given the start of fall camp for both high schools and colleges, few visits are being taken, nor are commitments being given.
Justin Fields has still not decided on his college choice, as we speculated that he would not before his senior season.
October: The biggest Domino falls
In early October, Georgia landed Justin Fields, the most coveted recruit in the country. The momentum built by Kirby Smart’s program, and distance from home helped Georgia get his pledge. Georgia is now absolutely loaded at the QB position, with three five-star types either on campus or committed. It will be interesting to see how Georgia handles Fields with Jake Fromm and Jacob Eason already on campus.
Fields picked Georgia over Florida State, Alabama, Auburn, and LSU. Alabama is showing increased interest in Jarren Williams, the Kentucky commitment. Ohio State is as well, according to Williams, despite having a commitment from Emory Jones.
Oregon also took advantage of distance, program momentum, and a poor start by UNC to flip Tyler Shough, an Arizona native, to the Ducks.
November: Alabama and Ohio State will topple a few more tiles
November has been quite busy for QB recruiting.
Artur Sitkowski, a New Jersey native who plays for IMG Academy in Bradenton (Fla.) switched his commitment from Miami to Rutgers. This would seem like a major coup for Rutgers, but Miami fans don’t seem all that concerned considering Sitkowski has struggled this year at IMG Academy. If Rutgers can get him to translate his physical tools into production, that will be a big win for the Scarlet Knights.
The bigger news, however, comes from some reading of the tea leaves in Tuscaloosa and Columbus.
Emory Jones, a long-time Ohio State commitment, is now widely expected to flip to Alabama. While Jones is not the only top QB the Tide is pursuing (see also: Tanner McKee), he does seem like the most likely to end up in the class.
In response, Ohio State has offered Jarren Williams, who is currently committed to Kentucky. Williams has a great relationship with Kentucky, but the Buckeyes and Wildcats are simply a different class of program. Miami and Auburn are also in on Williams.
One other prospect to keep an eye on: Matt Corral, the California QB who is committed to Florida. Florida is without a head coach after firing Jim McElwain, and it’s yet to be seen if Corral will fit the new Gators’ system, or if he’ll have a good relationship with the new staff.
Ohio State accepted a commitment from Texas QB Matthew Baldwin, perhaps because it’s aware of the chance it loses Emory Jones to Alabama, Florida, or Florida State. Jones has visited all three schools in recent weeks.
And Justin Fields confirmed he will sign in the new Early Signing Period, which means Georgia is a lock to keep him.
All rankings via the 247Sports Composite at time of writing unless otherwise specified.
And how many will sign during the early signing period.
We’ve reached the point where the majority of the country’s top 2018 prospects are already verbally committed to some school or another. Most of those commitments will stick, though not all will. This post is a rundown of the 11highest-rated prospects who don’t have a current verbal commitment to any school. Predictions by SB Nation recruiting analyst Bud Elliott.
Micah Parsons, five-star DE, Harrisburg (Pa.)
The five-star prospect is the No. 1 prospect out of the state of Pennsylvania, and he’s visited Georgia and Penn State in the last month. Prediction: Parsons had strong Oklahoma, Ohio State, and Georgia interest at different times during his recruitment, but I fully expect the pass rusher to end up back where he was first committed — Penn State.
Patrick Surtain Jr., five-star CB, American Heritage (Fla.)
He’s the son of former three-time Pro Bowler Patrick Surtain. He’s got his father’s talent, too — Surtain Jr. is the No. 5 player in the country, with 33 offers. The Fort Lauderdale (Fl.) American Heritage prospect has been an LSU lean for some time. Prediction: Most would say LSU, due to the family’s connection to the state, but this seems too soon to call, since he is not signing early. Clemson, Alabama, Florida, Florida State, Miami, and Georgia are all also in the mix. The official visits in January should yield more information.
Eyabi Anoma, five-star DE, Pace Academy (Md.)
Out of Baltimore (Md.) Pace Academy, Anoma is this year’s No. 7 prospect in the country. He took three officials in the last two months, to Michigan, Alabama, and Maryland. Prediction: Everyone thinks the Tide will again go to the Atlantic region and pull another five-star, and I agree.
KJ Henry, five-star DE, Clemmons (N.C.)
The Clemmons (N.C.) West Forsyth prospect’s last visit came in October to South Carolina. Henry has a good blend of size and burst. He visited Clemson in September, where he is expected to be a lean. Prediction: Georgia and South Carolina tried their best, but I expect Henry to sign with Clemson during the early signing period.
Jackson Carman, five-star OT Fairfield (Oh.)
The No. 1 OT in this year’s class has 41 offers, including ones from Ohio State, Clemson, and USC. Carman, out of Fairfield, (Oh.) took visits to USC and Clemson this past month. Prediction: It is just so hard to pick an elite player from Ohio at a position of need going somewhere other than the Buckeyes. So I won’t. Urban Meyer wins this battle.
Jamaree Salyer, five-star OG, Pace Academy (Ga.)
The Atlanta (Ga.) Pace prospect is this year’s top-rated guard for the class of 2018. He’s expected to land at Georgia and stay close to home, but he took an official visit to Florida this month, too. Prediction: Georgia is rapidly building momentum in an attempt to sign the No. 1 class in the country, and I expect Salyer to join it.
Terrace Marshall, five-star WR, Parkway (La.)
The nation’s No. 1 receiver for 2018 has 27 offers, including ones from LSU and Texas A&M. Due to his talent, the Bossier City, (La.) Parkway prospect is on a lot of teams’ big boards this cycle. Prediction: Jimbo Fisher’s move from FSU to Texas A&M has probably made this closer than some realize, but you’ll go broke predicting LSU to miss on top targets from its state, so the Tigers are the pick.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, five-star WR, Mater Dei (Calif.)
The Anaheim (Calif.) Mater Dei prospect is the No. 1 prospect out of California this year, and he holds 26 offers. Although he could definitely stay out west, Notre Dame has been recruiting him hard, too. St. Brown is one of the best slot receivers to come along in a while. Prediction: There was a time when I thought Notre Dame had a real shot due to his brothers, Osiris and Equanimeous, but now all of my sources think USC is the choice.
The Knoxville (Tenn.) prospect was a longtime Tennessee commit, but that ended with Butch Jones’ departure. Since he’s been back on the market, he’s taken visits to Ohio State, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Georgia. Prediction: Despite Georgia’s commitments barking that the Dec. 15 visit was enough to get Mays to Athens, I’m sticking with Clemson for the former Vols commitment. Clemson has playing time to offer, and Mays is also tight with several Clemson prospects.
Nicholas Petit-Frere, five-star OT, Berkeley Prep (Fla.)
Out of Tampa (Fl.) Berkeley Prep, Petit-Frere took a few visits to Notre Dame this fall. His 6’6, 272-pound frame makes him a coveted position with the size he already has coming out of high school. Prediction: Frere is not expected to sign early, and I suspect he’ll potentially take officials to Florida, Alabama, Florida State, and other Southeastern powers before making a decision.
Devon Williams, five-star WR, Antelope Valley (Calif.)
The nation’s No. 4 wide receiver holds 15 offers, including ones from Oregon, Utah, and Alabama. Williams is a major deep threat. There’s a chance the Lancaster (Calif.) Antelope Valley prospect could stay closer to home. Prediction: With the continuity hire of Mario Cristobal at Oregon, I expect that the Ducks will remain in a good spot and sign the speedy receiver.
Explaining college football recruiting's new Early Signing Period
He follows in the footsteps of Kellen Winslow and Greg Olsen, among others.
At 6’3, 240, Brevin Jordan is considered 2018’s third-best tight end, according to the 247Sports Composite. He’s currently rated as the best TE west of the Mississippi.
At The Opening’s Los Angeles camp early this year, he listed Miami and Michigan “and UCLA for sure” as three schools he’d definitely put on a top list, were he to make one, with Ohio State and Georgia two others he’s “really looking into.”
Just days after taking an unofficial visit to Miami, Jordan has publicly committed to Miami, the team long thought to be his recruiting leader. Seems like that visit he took last week was kind of good, no?
When asked which college coach he’s the tightest with, he went with Miami TE coach Todd Hartley, saying “he’s just funny, man. Me and him talk, sometimes we get off of football. We’ll talk about my girlfriend or my mom. He’s real deep into it.”
Those hats on the table of the recruit commitment ceremony don’t always represent real offers.
It’s a scene that plays out at high schools across the country in early February.
A football recruit sits at a table and picks up one hat, then another, and then finally a third. He places it on his head. An announcer says “Johnny Recruit has chosen School A over School B and School C.” The crowd goes wild.
Only, often, one part of the National Signing Day ceremony is a sham: the losing hats.
The idea for this piece came from years of sitting in press boxes during all-star games, next to reporters who cover recruiting for the top teams in the nation. And time after time, as a recruit chose a hat over others that are supposed to represent other schools, I heard “I don’t know why that hat is on the table; he doesn’t have an offer from them,” or, “He can put that hat on the table, but they won’t accept his commitment.”
And time after time, the player doesn’t pick that hat. Because he knows. Instead, he puts on the hat from a school to which he does have a current, valid offer.
Ninety-nine percent of the viewing audience is none the wiser.
It makes the player look better to have a lot of offers.
The obvious benefit is that the player’s reputation gets a huge boost, when he looks like he is choosing one offer over a bunch of similar or even better offers.
Maybe he is blazing a trail, by picking the lesser school. Or maybe he is seen as spurning a bigger, out-of-state offer to stay home.
It makes the chosen school look better.
If you’re a coach at the school the player does pick, you look great. Your bosses think you beat out all those other great schools represented by hats on the table. The boosters will, too.
The most common hat without an offer seems to be Alabama
This is anecdotal, but talk to any recruiting writer about this, and the school that comes up first being misrepresented is the Tide, probably because Alabama is the gold standard, going for its seventh-consecutive No. 1 recruiting class finish. Beating out Alabama looks really good for the staff that lands the recruit, whether or not the kid had a real offer.
Why don’t the schools being misrepresented just say something?
By NCAA rule, schools cannot comment on recruits until they sign. And even if they could, they wouldn’t want to disparage a recruit and risk souring a relationship with his family, coaches, town, or high school in the future.
But it drives opposing coaches nuts.
If you talk to a coach off the record, especially this time of year, they’ll express their annoyance of the practice, especially if they are at an elite school that doesn’t benefit from it.
Some staffs may be orchestrating this.
Don’t be so fast to assume that the recruits are the ones picking the hats to improve their perception. It may actually be a coach who floats the idea.
I’ve noticed this trend in recent years, where one school or another seems to try to drum up a bunch of Signing Day hype by having the kids they know will sign with them litter the table with hats that are supposed to represent better offers. If one or two kids do it, it might be random.
But when five or six do, and several kids who have been committed for months all of a sudden do it at an “impromptu” signing ceremony, that’s probably coming from someone at their future college.
Does the hat look like it was just bought at a gas station five minutes ago? Is it a hat that the recruit would not want to be photographed in? He’s not picking that school. Most recruits are not going to spend big money on hats they won’t pick.
It used to be that you could tell based on the hat curve, because a player has probably worn the hat around a bit and worked a good curve in. But now high school kids wear flat bills, and often leave the sticker on, so that tell is mostly gone.
But what about visors?
Image may be NSFW. Clik here to view.Brenton Cox
Inspired by Brenton Cox and others, SB Nation CFB Editor Jason Kirk has a theory about visors: if a recruit has large hair, and there is a visor on the table along with hats, the visor is easier to put on, so the recruit is likely to pick the visor.
Check back for news and notes as many of the country’s top recruits make their official choices.
College football recruiting’s new Early Signing Period is finally here, and runs Dec. 20-22. SB Nation will be providing live updates in this space on a regular basis.
4 p.m. — Texas lands Anthony Cook and maybe the best DB class ever
The Texas Longhorns are setting up to blanket everyone in the Big XII, thanks to a huge number of elite defensive back prospects. In fact, it might just be the best class of defensive backs ever. The latest is Anthony Cook, of Houston. The elite corner goes along with No. 1 safety B.J. Foster, No. 3 safety Caden Sterns, No. 6 corner Jalen Green, No. 6 safety DeMarvion Overshown, and No. 14 corner D’Shawn Jamison. In a league that throws the ball as much as the Big XII does, that is unreal. The ability to play man coverage is such an advantage, and Texas should be able to do that.
2:50 p.m. — Georgia is signing the nation’s best OL class. Again.
Under offensive line coach Sam Pittman, Georgia signed the best offensive line class in 2017. And it’s doing so again in the class of 2018 with guard Jamaree Salyer, guard Trey Hill, and now tackle Cade Mays. Kirby Smart has five 5-stars committed. The rest of the SEC East has zero.
1:30 p.m. — A big day for Clemson
Clemson is having a strong day under Dabo Swinney, as expected. First, though it wasn’t a surprise, the Tigers signed the top offensive (QB Trevor Lawrence) and defensive (DE Xavier Thomas) players in the nation.
Dan Mullen was the first to offer QB Emory Jones, several years back. But schools like Mississippi State don’t sign QB recruits with major interest from Alabama, Florida, Florida State, and Ohio State. It’s a good thing for Mullen and the Gators that he is now the coach in Gainesville, because Jones flipped from the Buckeyes to the Gators Wednesday, over FSU and Alabama.
Jones is a perfect fit for Mullen’s offense, which heavily emphasizes running the quarterback. And he’s the only player on Florida’s roster who is an ideal fit, so there is a real chance he could start as a true freshman in the SEC. Jones is exactly what Florida needed, especially since Georgia just signed Justin Fields and has Jake Fromm. Keeping Jones away from Florida State is also a plus.
10:45 a.m. — Georgia keeps one blue-chip, adds two more
Given that his mother did not accompany him on the visit to Florida State, I never bought in to the idea that FSU would flip James Cook back from Georgia, even though Dalvin is his older brother. He stuck with Georgia this morning.
10:20 a.m. — Penn State adds one elite pass rusher, and it might get another
As expected, Penn State signed five-star defensive end Micah Parsons today, beating out a number of elite programs.
I also expect the Nittany Lions to land four-star defensive end Jayson Oweh, of Blairstown (NJ), though I don’t expect him to sign early.
10 a.m. — Forget Plan B, on to Plan C
I’m sure there will be many unforeseen consequences of the new Early Signing Period, but one that I saw coming from a mile away, and wrote about, was the new rule helping smaller schools keep the gems they’ve scouted and recruited. Under the old system, it was relatively easy for big programs to figure out their top targets weren’t coming, and then flip a kid from a smaller school.
But already this morning, I am seeing numerous reports of kids spurning last-minute offers from big schools to stick with their commitment to lesser programs which have recruited them for a long while.
Like a QB sticking with ECU instead of waiting for Florida, or this guard sticking with Kansas instead of jumping on a Texas offer.
Offer late on Tuesday evening from #Texas to powerful Kansas OG commit Jacobi Lott was not enough to keep Lott from signing with the Jayhawks.https://t.co/EGAeEgaLwR
Some kids will be willing to wait, of course, but the small schools are benefitting under the system more than before.
9 a.m. — How confident are the Gators in flipping Emory Jones?
Four-star Atlanta QB Emory Jones is committed to Ohio State, but nobody I speak with expects him to sign with the Buckeyes, as I mentioned in the “Flip Watch” situation, below. As of Tuesday night, most thought he would flip to the Florida Gators, who desperately need QB help. New coach Dan Mullen was Jones’ first offer back when he was the head man at Mississippi State, and Jones visited over the weekend. But he also visited Florida State over the weekend.
The interesting thing to note here is that Florida was busy recruiting lesser QBs late Tuesday night.
Holton Ahlers turns away late offer from Florida to sign with #ECU:
More on #Louisville QB signee Jordan Travis. Was told #Florida#Gators push to try and get Travis to hold off signing today continued last night. That from a source at The Benjamin School.
Is a kid really spurning Florida to sign with ECU? I can’t believe that. More likely is that the Gators tried to get Ahlers and Travis to wait a bit to sign because Jones has not yet given Florida assurances that he is coming. That’s what I would do if I was in Florida’s situation. There’s also the possibility that the Gators want to take two QBs, but don’t want to scare off their No. 1 target.
8:40 a.m. — Georgia clearing room for a huge finish?
It looks like Georgia is going to follow up its No. 3 2017 class with a run at the No. 1 class in 2018. That might be weird to say considering UGA lost a four-star commitment to Ole Miss Wednesday morning. But I’m not convinced UGA fought all that hard to keep him. I think the Dawgs are clearing room.
I’m not predicting a No. 1 class just yet, but I do expect UGA to keep James Cook’s commitment this morning. And Georgia sources are extremely confident that they’ll sign Cade Mays, one of the top offensive tackles in the nation. Pair Mays with commit Trey Hill, and expected signee Jamaree Salyer, and UGA should have the best offensive line class in the nation yet again. Kirby Smart is not screwing around in Athens. The Dawgs are building a monster.
The Dawgs are getting one of the best defenders in the nation.
Four-star linebacker Channing Tindall has committed to Georgia. This is a major get for the Dawgs because Tindall is one of the best linebacker recruits to come along in years. It also pushed UGA’s class to No. 1 in the 247Sports Composite.
It was good under Mark Richt. But the Dawgs have became one of the three or four best recruiting teams in the sport under Smart, with one Playoff berth to show for it so far. They’re now in a class with Alabama and Ohio State, and the result is that Georgia will have the best roster in the SEC East for the foreseeable future.
Out of Columbia (SC) Spring Valley High School, Tindall is considered one of the best linebacker recruits in the nation, with some services believing he is the No. 1 prospect at his position.
Tindall was selected to Nike’s The Opening Finals, the Shrine Bowl, and the U.S. Army All-American Game.
What makes Tindall so special?
It’s his size and speed combination. Tindall is a solid 6’2 and 215 pounds, which is very good size for a high school linebacker. And he hits like it, delivering crushing blows to opponents.
But he moves like someone 30 pounds lighter. And that’s really what makes him elite. Tindall posted an incredible Nike Football Rating (SPARQ) of 125. Tindall is more athletic than some elite safeties in his recruiting class, and in fact has demonstrated that by lining up at safety in some all-star competitions and camps.
Combined with his above-average instincts, Tindall just keeps getting better. He’s coming to take a starting job.
In a huge win for the Trojans, super recruit JT Daniels is arriving for 2018.
JT Daniels stunned the college football world Friday as he announced that he would be reclassifying from the recruiting class of 2019 to the class of 2018, and will attend USC.
Out of Santa Ana (Calif.) Mater Dei High School, Daniels was to be the No. 1 QB in the class of 2019, but apparently has enough credits to graduate a full year early and “reclassify” into the class of 2018, the majority of which signed this week. The move is rarely seen in football, but is actually quite popular in basketball recruiting, due to the less physical nature of hoops.
He announced intentions via a twitter video released Friday.
With the very possible early departure of QB Sam Darnold fo the NFL, the timing could not be better for the Trojans. Before his junior year, Daniels was 6’2 and 200 pounds, and will likely continue to grow and develop. Daniels, a five-star, chose USC over offers from Alabama, LSU, Michigan, Miami, and most of the nation.
The QB at South Carolina, Jake Bentley, also made a similar move prior to the 2016 season. Bentley has played well for the Gamecocks, and did not struggle more than the typical true freshman would be expected to in his first season.
USC did not sign a class of 2018 QB before Daniels, and most expected the Trojans to land Daniels in the class of 2019 anyhow following his commitment in July. He will now have a legitimate chance to start for the Trojans.
Daniels’ high school stats are amazing. He has over 12,000 career passing yards and a 152-14 TD-INT ratio.
For my money, Daniels is a franchise level QB, and on par with elite passers like Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields, the No.s 1 and 2 players in the 2018 class who signed with Clemson and Georgia, respectively.
The No. 1 football recruiting podcast discusses Early Signing Period
Morgan Moriarty and Bud Elliott return with an episode of the SB Nation College Football Recruiting Podcast. Please subscribe to the show on iTunes or Google Play Music.
The Early Signing Period crushed teams with coaching changes compared to their traditional recruiting level due to the lack of time available to establish relationships. How did teams approach it? Which teams did the best? Should Florida fans celebrate? Should FSU fans panic?
There is a distinct lack of available backup plans because mid- and lower-level programs did a tremendous job to lock down their classes. Minnesota, Virginia Tech, Kansas and Illinois are discussed. How will this change going forward?
Some of the top sleepers who would normally be poached by bigger schools, who signed with smaller programs.
Should Ohio State fans be disappointed? Perhaps by the finish, but Morgan and Bud share some underrated players in the Buckeye’s class.
Four-star athlete Talanoa Hufanga committed to USC on Thursday evening. The prospect out of Corvallis (Ore.) Crescent Valley chose USC from 21 offers, including ones from Oregon, Michigan, and Nebraska. The 6’0, 193-pound athlete is the No. 2 athlete in the country per the 247Sports Composite, but he’s the No. 1 prospect out of the state of Oregon.
In the fall, Hufanga took visits to Utah, UCLA, Nebraska, USC, and Michigan. Although he’s listed as an athlete, he’s being primarily recruited as a defensive back. That’s where he practiced during the Nike Opening last July in Beaverton, Ore.
Given Hufanga’s skillset, he’s a big addition to USC’s 2018 class.
What makes Hufanga special?
Size, speed, and mentality. Hufanga moves like player who weighs 175 pounds, not nearly 200. On defense, that means he is getting to the ball carrier faster than expected. And when he arrives, it means the blow he is delivering is serious and substantial. In the era of spread football, having a safety with the ability to cover like a free safety, but play the run in space like a linebacker is a major asset, and that’s what Hufanga represents. Add in plus instincts, and it is easy to see how he is a special player. — Bud Elliott
The scoop from one of the premiere recruiting events in the country.
ORLANDO, Fla. — The Under Armour All-America Game is one of the premiere collections of college football recruiting talent in the nation. 2018 is the 11th edition of the game, and SB Nation is on hand providing live recruiting updates.
The coaching staffs are headlined by former NFL head coach Steve Mariucci (Team Spotlight) and NFL Hall of Famer Deion Sanders (Team Highlight). The 2018 Under Armour All-America Game will be played at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla. on Thursday, Jan. 4, at 6 p.m. ET live on ESPN2. — Under Armour Media Guide.
Of the 108 players selected, 22 are uncommitted, 12 are committed but unsigned, and 74 are signed.
Players are coming by the media room in groups at the Orlando World Center Marriott, and I’ll be dropping notes about them here.
Penn State RB signee Ricky Slade predicts that superstar defensive end recruits Tyreke Smith and Jayson Oweh are both going to end up at Penn State. He said that for him, signing early instead of waiting for the traditional National Signing Day was the right call because he knew where he wanted to go.
Virginia DB commit D.J. Brown, of Crownsville (MD) says that he is still committed, but is interested in his new offers from Cal and Duke. He’d also like to hear from Northwestern. Brown said he did not get to take visits during the season, so for him, waiting to sign was the right call.
Offensive tackle Joshua Jefferson, of Washington D.C., says that schools were slow to recruit him because of his grades. Jefferson reports that he is doing better in the classroom, and that N.C. State, and Virginia Tech, Rutgers, and Maryland are showing some interest. They have yet to offer, however, and Jefferson won’t rule out the possibility of going to a prep or junior college if he doesn’t get the situation he wants.
Ft. Lauderdale defensive end Nick Bonitto said that multiple schools tried to pressure him into signing early, but that all have spots remaining for him. Bonnito will be deciding Thursday during the game between Oklahoma, Texas, and Louisville, and claims that he is done with his recruiting process, despite recent interest from the Gators. Other prospects like Louisville signee Chandler Jones believe Bonnito has actually already signed with Oklahoma during the Early Signing Period, and is simply waiting to announce his commitment.
Texas A&M receiver commit Jalen Preston, of Manvel (TX) said that he is about “80%” committed to the Aggies. Preston was initially disappointed that A&M fired Kevin Sumlin, but is encouraged that Jimbo Fisher is one of four coaches to have a national championship. Preston plans to officially visit the Aggies, and is also considering official visits to Arkansas and Florida. Florida QB signee Emory Jones has been recruiting Preston to the Gators.
South Carolina LB signee Rosendo Louis, of Deerfield Beach said that the coaching staff stability and relationships were the primary factors in flipping his commitment from Florida State to the Gamecocks. FSU had yet to hire a defensive coordinator as of the early signing period, and his best relationship was with Gamecocks defensive coordinator Travaris Robinson.
Ft. Lauderdale speedster Anthony Schwartz is committing during the game as well, between Auburn and Florida. Auburn is expected to be the pick for the receiver, but unlike Bonitto (above), Schwartz is still expected to take visits after the process.
Florida State OL commit Christian Meadows, of Montezuma (Ga.), says that he is still committed to Florida State, and that the Seminoles will get his final official visit. But he has some changes in his plans for other official visits. Instead of visiting Auburn and Florida, Meadows now thinks he might visit Louisville and UCF. The planned visit to Miami on Jan. 27 is still on, with FSU on Feb. 3. Meadows is eager to meet whomever FSU hires as an offensive line coach.
Elite Phenix City (Ala.) receiver Justyn Ross is maintaining his top three of Alabama, Auburn, and Clemson, in no order. Ross’ mom still likes Clemson, while his grandmother prefers Alabama. His planned visits to Alabama and Auburn are still on, and he doesn’t think he’ll be able to make a return visit to see Clemson again. On what Alabama and Auburn have done to draw even with Clemson, who was believed to be his longtime leader, Ross said “establish greater relationships.” I like Alabama’s chances to sign Ross.
Elite WR recruit Justyn Ross of Phenix City (Ala.) says that Alabama Football has pulled even with Clemson Football and Auburn Football. He'll visit both Alabama schools before making his final decision. His mom wants him at Clemson, while his grandmother wants him in Tuscaloosa.
Florida QB signee Emory Jones said that his relationship with coaches Dan Mullen and Brian Johnson, and the opportunity to play early with the Gators is what put UF over the top for the Heard County (Ga.) star. Mullen was the first coach to offer Jones, back when he was at Mississippi State.
I fully expect Pennsylvania defensive end Jayson Oweh to pick Penn State over Ohio State when he announces on TV Thursday. Oweh is one of the most talented players in the class, and understands that he is new to the game of football, and is just scratching the surface of his potential.
Joshua Moore, a four-star receiver commit from Yoakum, Texas, says that after decommitting from Nebraska, he is officially done with the Cornhuskers. Moore has two official visits locked in: Oregon on Jan. 26, and Florida State on Jan. 19. Two other visits are up in the air, and include potentially Texas, Texas A&M, Tennessee, and Cal. Moore’s brother Jordan is committed to Texas A&M, and Jimbo Fisher recruited Moore heavily while at Florida State, so I believe the Aggies will have a strong chance to land one of the final visits.
JaMarr Chase, an elite receiver from Metairie (La.), says that after decommitting from the Gators, he knows that LSU, Michigan, and ... Auburn will have hats on the table. Chase expressed doubt that TCU would be in the running, and also was noncommittal on Florida getting back in the mix. LSU and Auburn will be getting Chase’s final visits.
Expect Pensacola (Fla.) four-star receiver Jacob Copeland’s recruitment to come down to Florida, Tennessee, and Alabama. The Tennessee hire of Jeremy Pruitt resonated with Copeland, but he has a relationship with Florida WR coach Billy Gonzales. I still think Florida is the best bet for Copeland.
Tampa five-star tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere is a prospect to watch. He has already officially visited Notre Dame and Michigan. He has a strong connection with Ohio State coach Greg Schiano, so the Buckeyes are likely to get a visit. Florida and Auburn are also pushing for visits. But also watch out for Florida State. Willie Taggart visited Petit-Frere upon being hired, and Michigan offensive line coach Greg Frey, an FSU alum, is one of the leading candidates for the same position in Tallahassee. Petit-Frere said that a Frey move to FSU would change up his recruitment.
Four-star Florida receiver Justin Watkins plans to announce his commitment during the game Thursday. He said that he is own to LSU and Alabama, and is unlikely to take any additional visits after visiting. From February to June, Watkins was committed to Texas, but said that he felt pressured to commit on his visit, and not wanting to make a similarly rushed mistake was one reason he elected to not sign during the new Early Signing Period.
Practice begins Sunday at 10 am from Disney’s Wide World of Sports. In the interest of keeping things friendly for mobile data, I will publish a separate piece on practice observations Sunday afternoon or Monday morning. Make sure to follow on Twitter for more instant updates @sbnrecruiting.
ORLANDO, Fla. — I don’t like making judgments about players based on one three-hour practice at an all-star game, part of which isn’t even in pads, part of which is wasted on special teams, and part of which is spent on install.
But the readers ask for it, so here are observations from Day 1 of the Under Armour All-America Game practices. The 2018 Under Armour All-America Game will be played at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla. on Thursday, Jan. 4, at 6 p.m. ET live on ESPN2.
Kwatrivous Johnson, an offensive tackle from Greenwood (Miss.) is listed at 6’9 and 360 pounds. I had never seen Johnson before, so I was eager to see if he was really that size. I saw him next to Daniel Faalele, a fellow offensive tackle who is about that size, and he measured up. What’s more, Johnson isn’t sloppily built for his size, and the Mississippi State signee seemed to move all right.
Alabama defensive end signees Stephon Wynn and Jordan Davis both made a number of good plays. Wynn is built like a five-technique end, and he has great strength. He has improved his technique. Davis is a longer, leaner end who will likely play in both a two- and three-point stance. He showed some good speed off the edge.
Penn State defensive tackle signee PJ Mustipher is not the freakiest of athletes, but he has worked on his craft and has some excellent technique. Mustipher slapped away hands of blockers with ease and won a number of one-v-one reps.
Florida QB signee Emory Jones had some nice throws. It’s no secret that the absence of five-star Georgia QB signee Justin Fields (injury) has reduced the quality of the QB group at the event this year, but Jones threw some nice balls. And come Thursday during the game, he’ll be able to use his legs more as well because the blocking in all-star events is never good due to the quality of defensive line competition and the lack of time for offensive linemen to get acquainted with each other.
Over the last three years, Dan Mullen’s QBs at Mississippi State have averaged 196 carries per season, not including sacks. In an offense that runs its QBs 15 times/game, Jones athleticism and build are a major reason why he will be a serious contender to start Day 1 in Gainesville.
Florida Gators Football QB signee Emory Jones tells SB Nation about his excitement for getting to Gainesville, why he picked the Gators, and his chance to play early.
I saw Ft. Lauderdale (Fla.) speedster Anthony Schwartz showcase some more refined receiver skills, as opposed to a player who looks like a track star trying to play football. This was new to me. Schwartz gave a stutter move, changed tempo, and then turned on the jets to gain greater separation. I expect Schwartz to pick Auburn on Thursday.
I like Miami defensive back signee Gurvan Hall. He is not the biggest or the fastest, but every time I see him, he is around the ball and making plays. Hall has strong instincts and showed them off Sunday by breaking up several throws.
Nicholas Petit-Frere more than held his own. I was interested to see how the 6’6’, 280-pounder would do, considering he plays for Berkley Prep in Tampa, which does not face many of the better teams in Florida. But he played with confidence Sunday, not getting out over his feet, and trusting his technique and athleticism.
Two smaller corners stood out to me against bigger receivers: Texas signee D’Shawn Jamison and FSU signee Asante Samuel Jr. Both used their feet to stay in the hip pocket of bigger receivers, and in the red zone they did a good job to fight through the hands and break up passes.
For the uninitiated, the Blue-Chip Ratio is a quick and dirty way of determining which teams have signed enough talent to win a ring. It is not a guarantee that a team will win a title, but teams who do not meet the minimum threshold have little to no shot to bring home the title.
Oklahoma seemed like a perfect team to bust the Blue-Chip Ratio. The Sooners were extremely close to the minimum threshold, had a Heisman QB in Baker Mayfield, and were surging.
Monday night when Georgia’s Sony Michel scampered to the end zone to eliminate Oklahoma, the Blue-Chip Ratio was again good, since the three remaining teams all met the threshold. The title matchup will feature the No. 1 BCR team in Alabama and the No. 5 in Georgia.
The 2017 Blue-Chip Ratio list featured just 10 teams: Alabama, Ohio State, Florida State, LSU, Georgia, USC, Michigan, Auburn, Clemson, and Notre Dame.
I don’t run the final calculations until summer, and there is still a lot of recruiting to be done in the final five weeks of the 2018 cycle, but there are already four new teams who look like they could make the list in after the Early Signing Period.
Texas, Oklahoma, Penn State, and Miami are trending
The Longhorns are signing the best class in the Big 12, including the best DB class in the nation. Since the Blue-Chip Ratio is a four-year look, and Texas is replacing its rather average 2014 class with this elite signing class, its number should skyrocket.
Oklahoma might seem an odd addition the year it’s losing Baker Mayfield, but the Sooners are bringing in an elite class, and the 2014 class, which had 27 signees and only eight blue chips (four- or five-star recruits), is coming off the books.
Penn State is signing a top class this season, and the 2014 class in which the Nittany Lions signed just five blue-chip recruits is rotating off. I’m impressed by the defensive linemen Penn State is getting with Micah Parsons, PJ Mustipher, and perhaps Jayson Oweh.
If I told you that the 2018 national champion will be one of these 14 teams: Alabama, Ohio State, Florida State, LSU, Georgia, USC, Michigan, Auburn, Clemson, Notre Dame, Texas, Oklahoma, Penn State, and Miami, what would you think?
I’d say it looks really good, and that there aren’t really too many teams who seem likely to be able to win it. Perhaps Washington or Michigan State could be a threat, but the rich do get richer in college football.
SB Nation is on scene with the best recruits in the nation.
ORLANDO — Tuesday at the Under Armour All-America Game was cold, but unlike Monday, at least it wasn’t rainy. And the players were glad about that. The 2018 Under Armour All-America Game will be played at Camping World Stadium in Orlando on Thursday, Jan. 4, at 6 p.m. ET live on ESPN2.
Several players stood out, but before we get to those, I like to issue the following disclaimer:
I don’t like making judgments about players based on one three-hour practice at an all-star game, which isn’t even in pads, part of which is wasted on special teams, and part of which is spent on install.
But the readers ask for it, so here are observations from Day 3 of the Under Armour All-America Game practices. I watched a lot of receivers and cornerbacks Tuesday.
Receivers and tight ends
Brevin Jordan, Miami’s tight end signee from Las Vegas has been the best tight end for my money. He isn’t real long, but he is strong and pretty quick, and knows how to get open.
Matthew Hill, an Auburn commit from Snellville (Ga.), did a nice job adjusting to some poorly-thrown balls and had a good day overall.
Justin Shorter continues to be the physical freak that he has been at every stop along the way of the recruiting trail. The Penn State signee routinely got open and caught the ball.
TCU signee Tevailance Hunt impressed me with his speed. TCU is going to have an explosive receiving corps.
Justyn Ross continues to improve. With his basketball background, he’s raw, but continues to improve.
Defensive backs and linebackers
Demarvion Overshown, a Texas signee at safety and a member of the best DB class in the nation, was very active Tuesday. He nearly came down with a tremendous one-handed interception, and was disruptive.
Olajiah Griffin, a recent UCLA decommitment, has been physical and fast in the two days I’ve seen.
FSU signees Asante Samuel Jr. and A.J. Lytton have had excellent weeks. Samuel has a great feel for the game, and Lytton is fearless.
Trey Dean, a Florida signee at safety, has been excellent all week and looks to me like he could play corner if the Gators want him to.
Quay Walker, an Alabama commit who most don’t expect to end up at Alabama, has shown good burst to go with his lengthy frame.
After the Early Signing Period, where will the remaining top recruits go?
We’ve reached the point where the majority of the country’s top 2018 prospects are already verbally committed to some school or another. Most of those commitments will stick, though not all will. This post is a rundown of the 11highest-rated prospects who don’t have a current verbal commitment to any school. Predictions by SB Nation recruiting analyst Bud Elliott.
Patrick Surtain Jr., five-star CB, American Heritage (Fla.)
He’s the son of former three-time Pro Bowler Patrick Surtain. He’s got his father’s talent, too — Surtain Jr. is the No. 5 player in the country, with 33 offers. The Fort Lauderdale (Florida) American Heritage prospect has been an LSU lean for some time. Prediction: Most would say LSU, due to the family’s connection to the state, but this seems too soon to call, since he is not signing early. Clemson, Alabama, Florida, Florida State, Miami, and Georgia are all also in the mix. The official visits in January should yield more information.
Nicholas Petit-Frere, five-star OT, Berkeley Prep (Fla.)
Out of Tampa (Fla.) Berkeley Prep, Petit-Frere took a few visits to Notre Dame this fall, and also saw Michigan. His 6’6, 272-pound frame makes him a coveted position player with the size he already has coming out of high school. Prediction: I suspect he’ll potentially take officials to Florida, Alabama, Ohio State, and other Southeastern powers before making a decision. This one is too close to call.
Devon Williams, five-star WR, Antelope Valley (California)
The nation’s No. 4 wide receiver holds 15 offers, including ones from Oregon, Utah, and Alabama. Williams is a major deep threat. There’s a chance the Lancaster (Calif.) Antelope Valley prospect could stay closer to home and pick USC, and FSU is pushing for a visit due to the existing relationship he has with Willie Taggart. Prediction: With the continuity hire of Mario Cristobal at Oregon, I expect that the Ducks will remain in a good spot and sign the speedy receiver, but this is one of my less solid picks.
Isaac Taylor-Stuart, five-star DB, San Diego (Calif.) Helix
Taylor-Stuart is one of the best athletes in the nation. A freak at corner or receiver, he is way too fast for a 6’2 defensive back. Prediction: Ultimately, I think USC gets it done, but Taylor-Stuart does seem open to schools in the Southeast.
Tyson Campbell, five-star DB, Ft. Lauderdale (Fla.) American Heritage
Campbell might be the most athletic prospect in the nation. Miami, Alabama, Georgia, LSU, and Clemson have all recruited Campbell well, and the 6’2 DB plays his cards close to the vest. Prediction: After a weekend in South Florida, one thing is clear — everyone lacks confidence in where he’ll pick. The most common guess seemed to be Georgia, and the Dawgs do seem to be making room at the position, so I’ll go with UGA.
McKee is a prototypical pocket passer at 6’6 with a rocket arm. But will he actually sign a National Letter of Intent? McKee is expected to take his Latter-day Saints (Mormon) mission before he plays his college football. Prediction: Stanford is seen as the clear-cut frontrunner, if McKee actually signs.
Regulatooooorrrrrs! Griffin is the son of rap legend Warren G., but he’d be famous in the recruiting world even if he was not, because the 6’0 defensive back can really play. Griffin has officially visited Tennessee and USC, and has Auburn on deck. He has not said where his other two visits will be used. Prediction: While there was some initial noise about Tennessee after the hire of coach Jeremy Pruitt, I don’t believe he’ll go across the country. USC is typically the smart bet for players from SoCal.
Penei Sewell, four-star OT, Saint George (Utah) Desert Hills
Sewell is one of the top offensive linemen out West. At 6’5 and 340 pounds, he overwhelms his opponents with his strength. Oregon, USC, and Alabama are all pursuing. Prediction: Oregon just promoted an offensive lineman to its head coach in Mario Cristobal. Cristobal’s Ducks look to get bigger and more physical along the offensive line. Oregon’s star left tackle left early for the NFL draft. Oregon makes too much sense.
William Barnes, four-star OT, Apopka (Fla.)
Barnes is a very athletic prospect from powerhouse Apopka High. He stands an impressive 6’4 and weighs 320 pounds. Apopka is seen as Florida Gators’ territory, and UF did sign the last elite lineman to come out of the school in Martez Ivey. But Florida had a coaching change and UNC has been stable with Barnes. It feels like his recruitment is just beginning, and he has visits remaining to Auburn, Florida, Ole Miss, and potentially one more school. Prediction: I’ll go with Florida here, on the hunch that UF’s new staff can quickly establish a good relationship.
Waddle is one of the more dynamic players in the nation. A perfect fit for the slot at 5’9 and 178 pounds, he is electric in open space. I think this is a three-team race: Texas A&M, Alabama, and Florida State. Prediction: Waddle was high on Florida State’s staff before they moved to Texas A&M, and now that staff is in place less than 100 miles from his home. A&M needs to make a splash and the Aggies are the pick.
Jacob Copeland, four-star WR, Pensacola (Fla.) Escambia
Copeland is a tough, physical receiver with better quickness than long speed. He is not afraid to go over the middle. He has already visited Tennessee, and has visits remaining to Alabama and Florida. Prediction: The vibe at the Under Armour All-America Game week was Alabama, so I’ll go with the Tide, even though playing time might be tough to come by with Henry Ruggs, Devonta Smith, and Jerry Jeudy all returning.
Previously
Micah Parsons, five-star DE, Harrisburg (Pennsylvania)
The five-star prospect is the No. 1 recruit out of the state of Pennsylvania, and he’s visited Georgia and Penn State in the last month. Prediction: Parsons had strong Oklahoma, Ohio State, and Georgia interest at different times during his recruitment, but I fully expect the pass rusher to end up back where he was first committed — Penn State. Result:It’s Penn State.
Eyabi Anoma, five-star DE, Pace Academy (Maryland)
Out of Baltimore (Md.) Pace Academy, Anoma is this year’s No. 7 prospect in the country. He took three officials in the last two months, heading to Michigan, Alabama, and Maryland. Prediction: Everyone thinks the Tide will again go to the Atlantic region and pull another five-star, and I agree. Result: Alabama
Jackson Carman, five-star OT Fairfield (Ohio)
The No. 1 OT in this year’s class has 41 offers, including from Ohio State, Clemson, and USC. Carman, out of Fairfield, (Ohio) took visits to USC and Clemson this past month. Prediction: It is just so hard to pick an elite player from Ohio at a position of need going somewhere other than the Buckeyes. So I won’t. Urban Meyer wins this battle. Update: With Cade Mays expected to select Georgia, I am flipping my pick for Carman to Clemson. Result:Clemson
The Knoxville (Tenn.) prospect was a longtime Tennessee commit, but that ended with Butch Jones’ departure. Since he’s been back on the market, he’s taken visits to Ohio State, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Georgia. Prediction: Despite Georgia’s commitments barking that the Dec. 15 visit was enough to get Mays to Athens, I’m sticking with Clemson for the former Vols commitment. Clemson has playing time to offer, and Mays is also tight with several Clemson prospects. Update: After speaking with Georgia and Clemson sources, the Georgia side seems much more confident, so I am flipping my prediction on Mays to the Dawgs. That would make an incredible close for Georgia, giving UGA the best offensive line class in the nation for the second-consecutive year. Result:Georgia.
Jamaree Salyer, five-star OG, Pace Academy (Georgia)
The Atlanta (Ga.) Pace prospect is this year’s top-rated guard for the class of 2018. He’s expected to land at Georgia and stay close to home, but he took an official visit to Florida this month, too. Prediction: Georgia is rapidly building momentum in an attempt to sign the No. 1 class in the country, and I expect Salyer to join it. Result:Yup, UGA.
Brenton Cox, five-star DE, Stockbridge (Ga.)
Cox is a former Ohio State commit. With excellent size (6’5, 245) and burst, it’s easy to see why he is rated so highly. He has over 30 offers. Prediction: I expect Cox to pick Georgia over Alabama when he signs. Result:Georgia.
KJ Henry, five-star DE, Clemmons (North Carolina)
The Clemmons (N.C.) West Forsyth prospect’s last visit came in October to South Carolina. Henry has a good blend of size and burst. He visited Clemson in September, where he is expected to be a lean. Prediction: Georgia and South Carolina tried their best, but I expect Henry to sign with Clemson during the early signing period. Result: Georgia
The nation’s No. 1 receiver for 2018 has 27 offers, including ones from LSU and Texas A&M. Due to his talent, the Bossier City, (La.) Parkway prospect is on a lot of teams’ big boards this cycle. Prediction: Jimbo Fisher’s move from FSU to Texas A&M has probably made this closer than some realize, but you’ll go broke predicting LSU to miss on top targets from its state, so the Tigers are the pick. Result: LSU.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, five-star WR, Mater Dei (Calif.)
The Anaheim (Calif.) Mater Dei prospect is the No. 1 prospect out of California this year, and he holds 26 offers. Although he could definitely stay out west, Notre Dame has been recruiting him hard, too. St. Brown is one of the best slot receivers to come along in a while. Prediction: There was a time when I thought Notre Dame had a real shot due to his brothers, Osiris and Equanimeous, but now all of my sources think USC is the choice. Result: USC
Explaining college football recruiting’s new Early Signing Period
But what about the impact on the schools that made those changes?
SB Nation took a look at the 11 schools that made head coaching changes before the Dec. 20-22 ESP. We found that for the most part, it is extremely difficult to form new relationships with prospects in a scant few weeks.
Author’s note: Rankings and figures are from Jan. 17, 2018.
Arizona State, Herm Edwards
Date hired: Dec. 4 247Composite Ranking: 71th Number of blue-chip recruits: Zero
Arizona State lost five commits since the transition, including four-star OG Jarrett Patterson and three-star linebacker Kendrick Catis. Edwards was able to get 11 signees in December who were all three-stars, including the nation’s No. 5 JUCO cornerback in Dominique Harrison.
The Sun Devils’ class is NOW ranked about 24 spots lower than its recent five-year average and toward the bottom where the rest of the conference typically finishes nationally. It is clear the transition hurt Arizona State.
Arkansas, Chad Morris
Date hired: Dec. 6 247Composite Ranking: 81st Number of blue-chip recruits: 2
Arkansas’ 2018 class lost seven commits with the new coaching hire, including four-star athlete BJ Hanspard, along with six other three-stars including OTs Noah Banks and Luke Jones and athlete Sean Michael Flanagan.
Morris was able to sign two blue-chips during the Early Signing Period in four-star QB Connor Noland and linebacker Bumper Pool. This year’s class is significantly lower than where Bret Bielema’s classes finished, and it is currently last in the SEC. Arkansas will have to make up serious ground by traditional National Signing Day for this not to be a lost year, and even then, it will be tough. 2019 will have to be a home run for the Razorbacks.
Florida, Dan Mullen:
Date hired: Nov. 27 247Composite Ranking: 17 Number of blue-chip recruits: 8
Some of the biggest decommits out of the 11 Florida lost included four-star quarterback Matt Corral, who went to Ole Miss and four-star OG Curtis Dunlap who signed with Minnesota. Florida also lost four-star wideouts Tyquan Thornton and Ja’Marr Chase, neither of whom is expected back. A few of the notable three-star losses include safety Deontai Williams, who went with Nebraska and wideout Jalynn Williams.
But Mullen’s first class at Florida is a solid one, signing four-star QB Emory Jones away from Ohio State and adding guys like four-star safety Trey Stephens and running backs Dameon Pierce and Iverson Clement.
Florida’s ranking is a bit lower than its five-year average, but the Gators can make a strong closing on National Signing Day to get back to where they usually are nationally. Inside the SEC, Florida’s number of blue-chip guys is lower than the last few years, too.
That UF can equal its recent success even after a coaching change speaks to the power of the brand and the poor job Jim McElwain did in recruiting.
Florida State, Willie Taggart
Date hired: Dec. 5 247Composite Ranking: 22 Number of blue-chip recruits: 9
The Seminoles’ 2018 class lost 10 members in the wake of Jimbo Fisher’s departure, including four-star DB Houston Griffith, four-star all-purpose back Jashaun Corbin, and the nation’s No. 6 center in Verdis Brown. The Noles also lost seven three-stars to the 2018 class after Taggart’s hiring, including running back Charles Strong, linebacker Rosendo Louis, and defensive ends Stacy Kirby and Patrick Joyner, to name a few.
Nationally, the Noles’ class could end up being a historic low — the Noles’ 10-year average ranking was inside the top 10, so Taggart being hired so late certainly hurt the 2018 class. It’s much lower inside the ACC, too.
The class obviously isn’t up to par with some of the ones from year’s past, but Taggart cleaned up nicely during the Early Signing Period by flipping five-star DB Jaiden Woodbey from Ohio State, as well as landing blue-chips Anthony Lytton and Asante Samuel Jr.
FSU could finish inside the top 15, but it is clear the Early Signing Period took a toll.
Mississippi State, Joe Moorhead
Date hired: Nov. 29 247Composite Ranking: 25 Number of blue-chip recruits: 4
Mississippi State’s class suffered with the coaching change from Mullen to Moorhead, losing eight verbal commits since the move. Some of the biggest losses include four-star running back Fabian Franklin, three-star defensive ends James Williams and Fabien Lovett, and three-star corner Ladarrius Bishop.
One of the biggest gets for Joe Moorhead’s class is four-star receiver Stephen Guidry, who is the No. 1 JUCO wideout in the country. He was committed to MSU since September. Keeping Guidry in the 2018 class is huge for the new Bulldogs head coach, and he’s one of four blue-chippers in the Bulldogs’ class so far.
Despite the losses, where MSU is actually ranked is about right where Mullen’s classes finished over the last five years.
Ole Miss, Matt Luke
Date hired full time: Nov. 26 247Composite Ranking: 37 Number of blue-chip recruits: 2
The biggest get for Luke and the Rebels’ 2018 class is definitely getting Corral to flip to Ole Miss. It’s huge, and was much needed, since former blue-chip Shea Patterson transferred to Michigan weeks after the NCAA handed down its postseason ban ruling. Luke lost just one verbal commit in three-star defensive tackle Allen Love. Luke being already the interim in Oxford made this more of a unique situation than the others.
Nationally, the Rebels’ class is about 22 spots lower than its five-year average per 247Sports. But that is probably more due to on-field performance and NCAA issues than a coaching change, since Luke was in place as the interim for the entire season.
Nebraska, Scott Frost
Date hired: Dec. 3 247Composite Ranking: 34 Number of blue-chip recruits: 4
Nebraska lost a pair of four-stars with the coaching change in wide receiver Joshua Moore and Cameron Brown, the latter of whom ended up at Ohio State. Four-star ATH Mario Goodrich decommitted as well.
One of Frost’s biggest gets for his 2018 class is four-star QB Adrian Martinez, who was previously committed to Tennessee. Two more blue-chippers were a part of his Early Signing Period class in tight end Cameron Jurgens and defensive end Tate Wildeman. Historically, Frost’s first class is about seven spots lower than the Cornhuskers’ five-year average. It’s ranked seventh inside the Big Ten, a bit lower as well.
Nebraska, though, does figure to close strong and could meet historical averages.
Oregon, Mario Cristobal
Date hired: Dec. 8 247Composite Ranking: 15 Number of blue-chip recruits: 9
Oregon has lost a whopping eight verbal commits since Taggart left for Florida State, seven of them being four-stars. Some of the more notable names include four-stars in receiver Warren Thompson, cornerback Isaiah Bolden, the nation’s No. 10 athlete in Braden Lenzy, Tight end Michael Ezeike, defensive end Malcolm Lamar, and receiver Miles Battle. Half of them are expected to land at Florida State.
However, there are nine blue-chippers in Cristobal’s class, most of them signed during the Early Signing Period. The bigger names include quarterback Tyler Shough, OT Dawson Jaramillo, and LB Adrian Jackson. The class ranking is actually higher than the Ducks’ five-year average, and it’s ranked third in the Pac-12. That is likely a reflection of the low bar set by former coach Mark Helfrich, who did not recruit well, and the continuity of hire via promoting Mario Cristobal.
Oregon State, Jonathan Smith
Date hired Nov. 29 247Composite Ranking: 89 Number of blue-chip recruits: Zero
Smith was able to sign 11 prospects during Early Signing period, even after the 2018 class lost three verbal commits since the coaching change. However, this year’s class is drastically lower than the Beavers’ five-year average (52). That probably has to do with the head coach quitting during the season.
Tennessee, Jeremy Pruitt
Date hired: Dec. 7 247Composite Ranking: 16 Number of blue-chip recruits: 7
Pruitt’s class had a couple of nice additions during Early Signing period thanks to Pruitt, including four-star receiver Alontae Taylor, and he kept the No. 1 Juco TE Dominick Wood-Anderson away from Alabama, where he was expected to sign.
But Tennessee also lost eight verbal commits to the class since the change, including four-stars in quarterback Adrian Martinez and safety Trey Dean. Tennessee’s ranking is close to where the Vols’ finished nationally in recent years, and the Vols have more blue-chips than last year’s class.
Texas A&M, Jimbo Fisher
Date hired: Dec. 1 247Composite Ranking: 29 Number of blue-chip recruits: 7
The Aggies’ 2018 class lost four members after Kevin Sumlin was fired, including four-stars in safety Leon O’Neal Jr., defensive tackle Bobby Brown, and linebacker DaShaun White. Fisher was able to sign five four-stars during the Early Signing Period, including top-20 Texas prospect Max Wright, OG Luke Matthews, safety Jordan Moore, OG Barton Clement, and receiver Caleb Chapman.
The Aggies class is significantly lower than the average five-year ranking (11) and on the lower end of the SEC, too.
How can someone so talented go unnoticed in the state of Georgia?
The second-highest high school athletics classification in Georgia is 6A. The 6A state champion in the 100M hurdles is 6’3 and 185 pounds and lives within 30 minutes of Atlanta.
As a senior, he caught 66 balls for 1,562 yards and 17 touchdowns and made Second-Team All-Georgia in the fourth-most talented state in the country for high school football talent.
And watching his film, it is clear he is not just a track guy — he is straight Mossing opponents:
Image may be NSFW. Clik here to view.hudl
As of Sunday, Jordan Young had zero Power 5 offers.
Several DII schools were on him, and his 247Sports recruiting profile showed an offer from Coastal Carolina.
But how in the heck did a player with those measurables, production, and film fall through the cracks? To find out, I spoke with college coaches in Georgia and the Southeast who were recruiting him, on the condition of anonymity because it is an NCAA violation for coaches to publicize prospects.
Young’s senior year was nothing like his previous seasons
“He came out of nowhere,” an FBS coach said. “This just doesn’t happen. He is a f***ing freak and I can’t believe we didn’t know about him. At least he’s going to go big time and not to a competitor.”
Young went from catching 23 balls for 276 yards and one touchdown as a junior to an incredible 66 catches for 1,560 yards and 17 touchdowns as a senior. It’s a remarkable turnaround.
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“He didn’t play much or put up numbers before this year,” a coach said.
Young’s highlights as a junior aren’t bad, they just aren’t special. Plus, there are not that many of them. As a senior, though, he seems to have put it all together.
Everyone matures at a different time. It could be that Young didn’t really come into his own until his senior season. The numbers certainly suggest so. And he does look like a different player as a senior.
Another coach shared that typically with a player this good, his coach or community will be calling coaching staffs to hype him up, but the coach didn’t hear much about him. Neither did local scouting services.
Why some lesser schools thought they had a shot
Other coaches expressed that they thought they had a shot because they weren’t sure what track his academic profile would take. Schools at lower levels can accept partial qualifiers. But an FBS coach told me that Young is “totally fine, good to go,” and said that he had an impressive test score. That killed the hopes of smaller schools and opened doors for Young.
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